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Singing Bob Marley in Ankara
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2014

Don't worry about a thing,'Cause every little thing gonna be alright.Rise up this mornin',Smiled with the risin' sun,Three little birdsPitch by my doorstepSingin' sweet songsOf melodies pure and true,Saying', "This is my message to you"…Governor Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the y...

Governor Basci as dovish as ever...
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jul 2014

Governor Basci presented the third Inflation Report of the year today in Ankara. The yearend inflation estimate (midpoint of a 70% band) was kept at 7.6%, as we expected, while the Bank – as it always does but never gets it right – see inflation decelerating to 5% by the end of 2015. A most notab...

Weekly Tracker: July 20-26
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2014

Executive Summary There is not much new to report on the Turkish presidential election campaign. PM Erdogan leads in the polls, though the opposition suspects foul play. Experts now think a convincing victory by AKP could trigger early elections before next year. In the meantime, Gul may be seeki...

Expected Action, Weak Narrative
TURKEY · Report · 17 Jul 2014

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee cut its key reference rate (one-week repo) today by 50 bps to 8.25%, but left its O/N lending rate intact at 12%.As well, in what we interpret as being largely a technical move – because the reference rate would be otherwise almost equal to the O/N borro...

Weekly Tracker: July 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jul 2014

Executive Summary The presidential race witnessed the rapid rise of HDP candidate Mr. Demirtas to the status of left-wing favorite, as Erdogan and Ihsanoglu not only put forth opposing visions, but campaign strategies as well.After all that has been said and done, with one exception, polls point ...

Muddle-Through Forever?
TURKEY · Forecast · 06 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Thanks to the ongoing support from top central banks, markets have been making the most out of Turkey’s cyclical adjustment story. Since the January troughs, bonds rallied by 300 bps while the lira appreciated by some 10% against the basket; markets also held up reasonably well,...

June Inflation: Food Prices Disappoint
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2014

June (CPI) inflation came in at a higher than expected 0.3%, compared with the consensus forecast of a flat reading and our more optimistic forecast of a slight drop in the monthly rate. Inflation still eased, i.e. it has indeed peaked, but less so than expected, to 9.2% from 9.7% in May. PPI inf...

June inflation worse than expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2014

Today's June inflation print disappointed, coming in at 0.3% worse than the consensus expectation of a flat reading -- and our somewhat more optimistic forecast of a slightly negative reading. But the culprit, as far as our forecast is concerned, is food prices: we expected, in line with seasonal...

Weekly Tracker: June 29 -July 6
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2014

Executive Summary We upgrade the odds of an Erdogan victory on the second round of presidential balloting to 80% from 65% previously. We also announce our bet for the new PM. Could Erdogan still loose? Read on! A new Bill to advance the Peace Process gained the endorsement of PKK leader Ocalan, t...

June MPC: A Minor Surprise
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jun 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee cut its key interest rate, the weekly repo rate, by a higher than expected 75 bps (versus consensus of a 50 bps cut) down to 8.75%, but left the O/N corridor intact at 8%-12% (see chart). While the cut is more aggressive (25 bps more) than we had envisaged, the fact ...

Weekly Tracker: June 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2014

Executive Summary HDP and AKP should reveal their respective candidates for the presidential race this week.A rebellion in CHP against the nomination of Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu died down quickly, meaning there will be only three contestants.It is too early to comment on CHP-MHP candidate Ihsanog...

Meet the “Manchurian Candidate”: Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Jun 2014

Quite unexpectedly, Monday’s CHP-MHP summit produced a joint candidate, called the “common roof” candidate in Turkish vernacular. Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu, the former Secretary General of Organization of Islamic Cooperation will probably represent the main stream opposition in the 10-24 August pr...

Weekly Tracker: June 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The sudden emergence of the ISIS as a major and probably permanent regional actor creates too many non-linearities in politics, economy and markets to be untangled at once.We initiate our analysis with a cautiously pessimistic short-term scenario. ISIS will keep Mosul, but the c...

ISIS update: When tail-risk becomes clear and present danger
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2014

The ISIS Blitzkrieg in Iraq swept army and police forces aside rapidly, adding the oil town Beiji and Saddam’s birthplace of Tikrit to the list of terror organization’s conquests. Total havoc reigns in the ISIS-affected areas, with half a million Iraqis reported to be on the run. Much of what hea...

New threats to stability: ISIS and PKK
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

I’m shocked beyond belief! 1.500 ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or Levant) militants took control of Iraq’s second largest city Mosul within a day, and now there are unconfirmed reports that the biggest Turkmeni city, Tuzhourmatu, has also fallen under their control. In Turkey, the shooti...

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