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New IMF program to be approved on June 9
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jun 2020

The IMF Board is expected to approve new program for Ukraine on June 9th, according to the IMF Board Schedule. Despite the IMF announced about staff-level agreement on May 21st it took two weeks to submit Ukraine’s file to the Board. Discussions over the conditionality of the new program – that w...

An island of stability — but for how long?
UKRAINE · Report · 22 May 2020

Ukraine is going through something quite unusual: its economy remains an island of stability, in the midst of the global COVID-19 storm. Most likely the big blow is still ahead. However, right now the balance of trade is improving, on the back of strong demand for food exports, the currency is st...

“Anti-Kolomoysky” law approved, IMF’s turn to move
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 May 2020

Parliament approved “Anti-Kolomoysky” law , which prevents return of nationalized Privatbank to its previouse owners. It was a long way to go for Ukrainian authorities. Many concerns about independence of president Zelenskiy. But finally we saw that Zelenskiy is trying to make decisions with his ...

Stand-By instead of Extended Fund Facility: anything wrong?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 May 2020

Ukrainian media reported ‘Breaking News’ yesterday. The IMF does not discuss 3-year Extended Fund Facility program for Ukraine anymore and proposed instead an 18-month Stand-By arrangement. Reporters cited Gerry Rice, Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, who mentioned this at pre...

Disobedience probe: alarming ring of big reshuffle
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 May 2020

Yesterday we witnessed events, which might be the first signal of big shift in Ukrainian politics. Mayor of Cherkasy, a town in central Ukraine with near 280 thnd inhabitants, eased quarantine restrictions from May 1st ahead of any orders from Kyiv. President Zelenskiy in his regular video-addres...

The NBU slashes prime rate down to 8%, anticipates better CAD amid COVID-19 crisis
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

The NBU Board slashed prime rate by 200 basis points down to 8% today. Low inflation (+2.3% y/y in March), no dramatic impact of COVID-19 crisis on external accounts so far, stabilized hryvnia and falling prices for hydrocarbons are behind this decision. That strong a cut was not expected, to be ...

Mikheil Saakashvili is back
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2020

Mikheil Saakashvili will be appointed Vice-Prime Minister coordinating reforms, according to his Facebook page. Recall Saakashvili entered Ukrainian politics after the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. Ex-president Petro Poroshenko named him ‘an old friend’ and in 2015 appointed Saakashvili governor...

Hope for an IMF lifesaver amid the COVID-19 storm
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Apr 2020

​The headlines have turned apocalyptic in Ukraine: a global economic crash, the forests of Chornobyl burning, the nation in COVID-19 lockdown, and more stinky scandals in President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s inner circle. Altogether very depressing. By mid-March, Ukraine’s government had imposed st...

Budget 2020 revised: state deficit surged to 7% of GDP
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Apr 2020

Parliament has just voted in a revised spending plan 2020. The main changes to new budget are: Revenues’ target cut by 10.9% or UAH 119.7 billion;COVID-19 Fund was created – UAH 64.7 billion or 1.5% of GDP;Initial spending (net of COVID-19 Fund) increased moderately by 1.5%;Revised deficit up to ...

Land market approved, turn for the IMF move
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2020

A historical day! Late in the night, already on March 31st, parliament voted in a law on the land market. As we wrote yesterday the design of land market has been substantially reshuffled in light of COVID-19 crisis. The market will be launched from July 1st, 2021 (previously, October 2020). From...

Parliament approves anti-Kolomoyskiy bill, new Finance Minister appointed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Mar 2020

Parliament has voted in so called anti-Kolomoyskiy law from the ‘list-to-do’ of the IMF. The law blocks return of nationalized Privatbank to its former owners Igor Kolomoyskiy and Genadiy Boholyubov. It was only first reading and more work should be done but it’s already a great step forward. Res...

Minister of finance and Minister of healthcare resign
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Mar 2020

Minister of finance, Igor Umanskiy and Minister of healthcare, Ilya Yemets have resigned, according to Facebook page of Iryna Gerashchenko, an MP from European Solidarity. Several media confirmed that candidates for the vacant posts have been interviewed today by MPs from Servant of the People. M...

Cabinet suggests 5% of GDP deficit amid fierce fight between “no default” and “let’s default” camps
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Mar 2020

The Cabinet has submitted an amended budget to the parliament, Oleksiy Honcharenko, an MP from European Solidarity of Petro Poroshenko, wrote on his Facebook page yesterday. New deficit was outlined at the level of UAH 202 billion or near 4.7% of GDP. Funds within the budget will be re-distribute...

New Minister of economy, a strong manager or a debt restructuring pro – impression mixed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Mar 2020

On March 17th parliament approved Igor Petrashko as Minister of Economy, Trade and Agriculture. Petrashko was Deputy Director of Ukrlandfarming, the agro-holding of oligarch Oleg Bahmatyuk, and he was the person who completed the debt restructuring of the holding. Due to that story observers joke...

The coronavirus pandemic: Gauging potential shock
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Mar 2020

It makes little sense right now to analyze pre-COVID-19 data and trends. The world is changing dramatically, and very rapidly. The scale of the current storm is difficult to grasp, but we have decided to take the first step in calibrating the potential consequences for Ukraine. The main focus is ...

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