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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The NBU keeps prime rate flat amid concerns on EM currencies
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 May 2018

On May 24 the NBU left prime rate unchanged at 17.0%. Easing inflation and hryvnia stability are the main reasons behind this decision. The press-release also mentions substantial easing of May inflation according to the NBU estimates. The NBU has provisional data on inflation and we should treat...

Squeaking by, without IMF money
UKRAINE · Report · 09 May 2018

With few notable events in April, we decided to take a closer look at what might happen if the IMF deal were delayed until after the 2019 elections—although we remain hopeful that cooperation will resume in 2018. Two important dates are coming up in the next two years: a presidential election ...

The Central bank leaves prime rate unchanged at 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Today the Board of the Central bank decided to leave prime rate unchanged at 17.0%. The decision was approved despite March inflation sped up to +1.1% m/m (+0.9% m/m in February) and despite no progress with the IMF. This decision might look a bit counter logical amid inflation speed up but in es...

Continuing growth despite IMF issues
UKRAINE · Forecast · 11 Apr 2018 · 1 response

Ukraine’s economy is clearly enroute to recovery. GDP grew 2.5% y/y in 2017, on the back of private consumption, which rose +7.6% y/y, and local investment, which jumped +18.1% y/y. GDP would have grown even more if not for a -6.3% y/y drop in the grain harvest, and a -16.3% y/y decline in coal e...

Poroshenko criticizes IMF as Stockholm rules in favor of Naftogaz
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Mar 2018

Recent weeks brought both good and bad news for Ukraine. First, the litigation between Gazprom and Naftogaz finally ended, with a ruling in favor of Naftogaz, obliging Gazprom to compensate the Ukrainian energy corporation to the tune of $2.56 billion. Gazprom responded by launching an appeal, an...

Gazprom strikes back: the monopoly cuts gas supplies to Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Mar 2018

The decision of Stockholm arbitration in favor of Ukraine (Naftogaz), no doubt, is unacceptable for Kremlin on the eve of presidential elections in Russia. It ruins the legend about omnipotence of Gazprom and undermines the myth about inferiority of Ukrainian state, that Russian media actively pr...

The Central bank increases prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2018

The Board of the Central bank decided to increase prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 17.0% from March 2. Strong inflation of January (+1.5% m/m or +14.1% y/y) and provisional data on February inflation (information is not available to public) pushed the Central bank to make one more tightening step. Mon...

Law on anti-corruption court approved in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2018

Parliament approved draft law on anti-corruption court in first reading. It’s positive news; however it tells nothing about chances to resume funding from the IMF. The Fund criticized current version of the draft law. In particular, the IMF in its letter on January 11 emphasized that the submitte...

Stockholm arbitration rules Gazprom to compensate $2.56 billion to Naftogaz
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2018

The Stockholm arbitration court ruled $4.63 billion compensation to Naftogaz for under-payment on natural gas transit, according to Naftogaz statement in social nets. Previously, in December 2017 the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce obliged Naftogaz to pay Gazprom near $...

(Failing to) fake out the IMF
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Feb 2018

Relations with the IMF have become a real headache for the presidential administration. Ukraine’s creditors have made it clear that an independent anti-corruption court is a must. The president’s office has tried to circumvent that demand, by submitting a bill to the Verkhovna Rada that set unrea...

Prime rate up by 1.5 ppt to 16.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2018

The Central bank increased prime rate by 1.5 ppt up to 16.0% from Jan 26. It was totally unexpected for the market: consensus was that prime rate will be unchanged. Such sharp increase in prime rate might mean that the Central bank sees inflation speeding up. Provisional estimates of January CPI ...

President suggests Smoliy as replacement to Hontareva
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jan 2018

President Poroshenko finally made his decision about new Head of the National bank of Ukraine. Today he suggested for this position Ykiv Smoliy, currently acting Head of the National bank. Previously observers discussed Volodymyr Lavrenchuk (Chairman of the Board of Aval bank) and Roman Shpek (He...

New privatization law approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jan 2018

Today parliament finally approved new law on privatization. This law is among the IMF requirements. The key features of the law include (a) introduction of independent investment advisors that accompany sale of large state owned enterprises, (b) sale of small stakes of state property through Inte...

2017 Results Mixed; 2018 Prospects Good
UKRAINE · Forecast · 11 Jan 2018

Results for 2017 were mixed. Ukraine’s economy is on the rise, and many positive achievements were reached. But 2018 begins with one awful reality: ongoing attacks against the new anti-corruption agencies have revealed to the world just how reluctant the establishment is to give up its rent-seeki...

Stockholm arbitration clarifies on its decision: both Naftogaz and Gazprom call victory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2017

On Dec 22 Naftogaz published a release describing details on decision of the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce on lawsuit of Russian Gazprom against Naftogaz. According to the release Stockholm Arbitration: recognized $352 per tcm gas price for Ukraine in 2Q 2014 instead ...

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