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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Prime rate raised by extra 1 ppt up to 14.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2017

Today the Central bank one more time increased prime rate by 1 ppt up to 14.5%. Strong inflation is the main reason for this decision. For 11m 2017 CPI grew by 12.5% ytd already beating 12.2% ytd of the Central bank inflation forecast for the total year. At the same time, our CPI projection of +1...

Saakashvili arrested, tension rises
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Dec 2017

Late in the night on December 8 Mikheil Saakashvili was arrested and this time successfully. He was escorted to jail of the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU). His supporters called for a new meeting on December 10 and they really gathered few thousands of protesters who called for impeachment. All...

As economy improves, Poroshenko leads in polls
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Dec 2017

Fresh voter polls are giving President Petro Poroshenko the best chance of winning the 2019 presidential race. Ukrainians seem to see that Poroshenko is not perfect, but he can claim some positive achievements, like the visa-free regime with the EU. Given the improving economic situation, he’s l...

New Attack on Anti-Corruption Bodies, the U.S. Department of State Intervenes
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Dec 2017

We witness new major fight over anti-corruption bodies these days. National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) has been extremely effective over the last few months. Arrests reached high profile officials. Among the nosiest cases was the arrest of the son of current Interior Minister, Arsen...

An attempt to arrest Saakashvili amid blames in illegal party financing
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Dec 2017

Today on Dec 5 the Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) made an attempt to arrest Mikheil Saakashvili, leader of opposition party Move of New Forces. Hundreds of supporters gathered near the place where Saakashvili resides and effectively recaptured Saakashvili from police and SBU. In parallel, the C...

Parliament approves new privatization law in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Nov 2017

Parliament approved new privatization law in first reading. The key features of the law include (a) introduction of independent investment advisors that accompany sale of large state owned enterprises, (b) sale of small stakes of state property through Internet platform, (c) streamlined procedure...

Economic Recovery: Steady As She Goes
UKRAINE · Forecast · 08 Nov 2017

Ukraine’s economy is steadily recovering now. During H1, GDP grew 2.4% y/y, twice as fast as forecast. Local investments grew 22.2% y/y, and private consumption grew 4.7%, driving growth, despite the continuing decline in industrial output, and contraction in farm production. We expect a 2% y/y G...

Parliament approves new election law in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Nov 2017 · 1 response

Today parliament approved in first reading new Election Code which envisages open voting lists on parliamentary elections. Open lists were among the key demands of October street protests. Open lists eliminate large part of political corruption since leaders of the parties will not be able to sec...

The Central bank expects IMF wire only in 2018
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

The Central bank reported that it expects next wire from the IMF only in 1Q 2018. It was mentioned at the press-release on the prime rate revision today. This is something new. Previously the authorities reassured that next wire will arrive by the end of 2017. The view has changed after recent vi...

The Central bank raises prime rate by 1 ppt up to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2017

The Central bank raised prime rate by 1 ppt up to 13.5% today. The last time prime rate was increased in March 2015. Fast CPI (+10.2% ytd for September), growing inflation expectations, risks related to increased pensions and mounting appreciation pressure made the Board of the Central bank tight...

Political protests: authorities play for time
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

My personal opinion – healthcare reform was a sacrifice to prevent revision of political rules of the game. When reformers had been celebrating approval of healthcare legislation, the authorities tried to derail process of implementing political demands. Firstly, the draft law, which cancels MPs ...

Healthcare reform approved
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Oct 2017

Yesterday, on October 19 parliament finally approved long-awaited healthcare reform. Frankly, I was skeptical about chances of this badly needed measure but probably protests on the streets sped up the process. Virtually, the reform has been curtailed for some critical features like official co-f...

Political Protests: Interim Results
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Oct 2017

Political protests on October 17 have impressed the authorities. The downtown of the city was flooded with police and military. And it looks like police exceeded the number of protesters. The very action was predominantly peaceful except for few minor clashes. Recall the protestors demand (a) ant...

Big Political Action might Reveal Authorities’ Intentions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Oct 2017

Tomorrow, on October 17 there will be a big political action (demonstration) in support of reforms. At least it was advertised as a big one. In fact it will be a critical day for those who still are struggling for changes at the country. Reformation zeal has faded. Elites are returning to “busine...

Advances: Pensions & Eurobonds
UKRAINE · Report · 05 Oct 2017

Parliament finally voted in the long-awaited pension reform, in early October. The law increases effective retirement age (higher requirement of years in service before being vested in a pension), leaving the headline pension age unchanged at age 60. It also envisages immediate pension rises from...

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