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A Corruption Deadlock
UKRAINE · Forecast · 02 Mar 2016 · 1 response

A political scandal, in which Minister of Economy Aivaras Abromavicius blamed cronies of President Poroshenko for corruption, is seizing public attention. The scandal made public an issue already disturbing Western donors: the “undercover” reforms the friends of the president and prime minister h...

Show must go on
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016 · 4 responses

It was a nice show with an attempt to dismiss the Cabinet. Now it would be difficult for western diplomats to blame the President that he did nothing for resolving political crisis. Poroshenko asked both Chief prosecutor and Prime-minister to resign and Chief prosecutor even complied with his req...

Chief prosecutor, Viktor Shokin resigns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016

This nervous day is bringing its fruits. Prior to the Prime-minister report at the parliament President Poroshenko called publicly for resignation of Chief prosecutor Viktor Shokin and for resignation of Prime-minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. This move was positively perceived by observers since it wa...

Changing the Cabinet?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016

Today will be the moment of truth for the Cabinet of Aresniy Yatsenyuk. Prime-minister will be reporting to MPs for achievements of his Cabinet for the last year and parliament either approves the report or dismisses the Cabinet. The voting will be in the context of severe corruption scandal trig...

The IMF warns on support suspension amid political crisis mess
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Feb 2016

Today Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, made it clear that Ukraine will not get money without resolving corruption issue. This statement will add fuel to the fire of political crisis which is unfolding at the country. Political elites are disoriented. They have never experienced th...

Abromavichus’ resignation triggers chain reaction
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2016

Resignation of the Minister of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus triggered a real political avalanche. Ambassadors of ten countries (G-7, Switzerland, Sweden and Lithuania) expressed deep disappointment with the resignation. Public opinion leaders stood strongly in support of Abromavichus. Ex-official...

Ministry of Economy resigns blaming top officials in corruptions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2016

Ministry of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus publicly informed about his decision to resign. He claimed that he is under extreme pressure and people from ruling group (he named Igor Kononenko, one of the eminence grises, formally Deputy Head of Block of Perto Poroshenko party) are demanding him to ap...

Another Tough Year Ahead
UKRAINE · Report · 02 Feb 2016

January was a relatively silent month, especially after an intense December, with tax changes and the budget 2016 on agenda.The public was primarily preoccupied with resurgent FX volatility, while politicians have been actively discussing the possibility of early parliamentary elections. In Ja...

A Sad Lack of Growth Prospects
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Dec 2015

All indicators suggest that 2016 will see GDP growth of 1.2% y/y . The bad news is that this minor rise is primarily due to a low comparative base, after two years of contraction. Unfortunately, we don’t see solid evidence that growth will continue.External demand, traditionally at the core of th...

Parliament approves budget-2016
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Dec 2015

MPs finally voted in budget-2016 and all supporting legislations including tax changes. The final version of budget was not released yet since many last-minute changes were introduced. However, from transcripts we know that the deficit was left unchanged UAH 83.7 billion (3.7% of GDP) as the IMF ...

Finance Ministry rejects to pay on Russian debt, official statement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Yesterday, on December 16 the IMF Executive Board decided that $3 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds Russia’s National Wealth Fund purchased in 2013 is an official claim for the purposes of the Fund’s policy on arrears to official bilateral creditors. Previously, on December 8 the IMF changed its len...

Budget 2016: all about payroll tax
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2015

On December 11 the Cabinet finally submitted draft budget to the parliament. The spending plan is based on new taxation rules. In particular, payroll tax will be reduced to 20% from near 37%. Simplified tax system will be substantially restricted. Enterprise profit tax rate remains flat at 18% an...

Slow Reform Sows Discontent
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Dec 2015

There’s been a disturbing level of discontent over the progress of reforms.We at first thought this was linked to demands for populist solutions. But local elections show that this is not so: Ukrainians are irritated that new elites are returning to their traditional corrupt ways of “doing busine...

Political Revenge Squelched
UKRAINE · Report · 04 Nov 2015

Local elections didn’t bring widely expected revenge of populist and pro-Russian parties. Still, the October vote underscored a few interesting trends. First, there was no dominant winner. Though national parties led the pack, dozens of local political forces entered local councils, creating a mi...

Another political arrest: will it become fatal mistake for Poroshenko?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Oct 2015

Breaking news was released on Saturday morning. The authorities arrested Gennadiy Korban, one of the leaders of political party UKROP (funded by Igor Kolomoysky). Officially he was blamed in organizing criminal group. In reality, the main crime of UKROP was their result on mayor’s elections in Dn...

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