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Local elections: pro-reformists forces lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2015

On October 25th Ukrainians have been electing local MPs and mayors of the cities. Interesting that new law on local elections was approved in July 2015 just few months before the voting. As a result, rules of the game were totally changed and created a lot of confusion. In essence, there were int...

Economy Stabilizes, But Recovery is Far Away
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Oct 2015

We continue to observe positive developments in the economy. GDP shrinkage slowed down from -17.2% y/y in Q1 to -14.6% y/y in Q2.Industrial output’s ongoing decline shrank “just” -5.8% y/y in August, from -20.5% y/y in H1. As the hryvnia strengthened, disinflation was also noticeable. The risks t...

Central bank cuts policy rate by 5ppt down 22%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Sep 2015

On September 24th Management Board of the National bank of Ukraine approved policy rate cut by 5ppt down to 22% since September 25th. This was already second policy rate cut over the last two months. On August 28 the Central bunk reduced policy rate by 3 ppt down to 27%. The tendency is quite pos...

Christine Lagarde impressed with Ukraine’s progress.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Sep 2015

On September 6 Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, visited Kyiv. During this visit she expressed her optimism about observed results. “I am extremely encouraged by the progress that has been achieved in the past few months” said Ms. Lagarde. “In a difficult environment, macroecon...

Restructuring deal: four years’ maturity extension, 7.75 flat coupon rate, 20% haircut
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Aug 2015 · 2 responses

Yesterday Ad Hoc creditors’ committee agreed for $18.0 billion Ukrainian debt restructuring. The agreement does not include loans of state-owned entities with sovereign guarantee, City of Kyiv Eurobonds and Ukrzaliznytsia Eurobonds. The deal presumes 20% haircut. Current Eurobonds will be exchang...

Debt restructuring results might be announced today
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Aug 2015

Media have been circulating message that Prime-minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk plans to announce some positive news today at 12:00 Kyiv time. In fact it is not a big secret that this news will be about debt restructuring. We do not know parameters of the agreement but, apparently, the agreement was re...

Default Evaded; Progress in Sight
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Jul 2015

Executive Summary The Ministry of Finance paid a $120 million coupon on its Eurobond on July 24th, which postponed feared default and reduced chances of a moratorium on debt repayment. The story is still long from over, and the Ministry of Finance will continue negotiating with creditors through ...

Ukraine is expected to pay $120 million coupon today
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jul 2015

Scarce information is available on negotiations with creditors. What we know is that no agreement was reached so far while the IMF promised to pay money whatever happens on debt operations. In this context the main question was whether Finance Ministry will dare to impose moratorium on debt repay...

Cigarettes’ smuggling shooting with political taste
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2015

3 people shot dead and 13 injured in shooting between police and representatives of ultra-right political move “Right Sector” on July 11, in Mukachevo, small town at the Western Ukraine, near 40 km from Hungarian border. This event effectively blew up media and, as a consequence, political life o...

Default talks bring volatility at the FX market
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Jul 2015

In early July serenity at the FX market was finally broken. The first disturbing signal came from black market few days ago when foreign currency operations’ spread started widening. Finally yesterday official market also reflected the tendency: on July 8th sell bids on cash operations moved to n...

Fragile Stability
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Jun 2015

Executive Summary Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabiliz...

​Ukraine to keep paying on debts, Jaresko said
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jun 2015

On June 22nd Ukraine will pay $73.3 million of interest to Russia on $3 billion Eurobonds, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko said today during briefing. In fact, this payment was the main intrigue after the IMF agreed to finance Ukraine disregard potential problems with debt servicing. As we wrote...

IMF relaxes on debt restructuring
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jun 2015

It looks like on debt restructuring everything develops in line with our expectations. The IMF mission arrived in Kyiv and was pretty much pleased to see serious progress on many directions. Reforms are gradually moving on disregard incredible resistance. What more, it looks like the general situ...

Battle at the Precipice of Default
UKRAINE · Report · 26 May 2015

Fortunately there was no further military escalation in Ukraine's eastern regions in May; the action was confined mainly to skirmishes and local clashes. Public attention was instead focused on government efforts at debt restructuring, on scandals over the personnel policy of the Cabinet and on r...

Default or not default
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 May 2015

After parliament approved the law, which allows the Cabinet to impose a moratorium on debt repayment, an active discussion started on potential moves of the Cabinet. In essence, all observers agree that this law was just to add pressure on creditors; however, there is no consensus on what the Cab...

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