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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Floundering in COVID-19’s Third Wave
UKRAINE · Report · 02 Apr 2021

The growing number of COVID-19 cases, the mounting numbers of virus-related deaths, and the return to a strict nationwide lockdown are the top issues these days, while the country’s vaccination effort rolls out at a snail’s pace. Still, it does not look as though Ukraine will face the dramatic ec...

US imposes sanctions on oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyy, big political reshuffle is on agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Mar 2021

Today, on March 5th the Secretary of state Antony J. Blinken announced “the public designation of oligarch and former Ukrainian public official Ihor Kolomoyskyy due to his involvement in significant corruption”. Sanctions were also imposed on members of Ihor Kolomoyskyy’s immediate family. Mr. Bl...

Prime rate revised upwards by 0.5 ppt, readiness for further increase declared
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Mar 2021

The NBU Board increased the prime rate by 0.5ppt up to 6.5%, according to the NBU press-release. The decision was a bit belated but still somewhat surprising after a dovish communication in January. Experts (consensus forecast, including ourselves) anticipated the prime rate to remain unchanged f...

No pain, no gain: the IMF on pause amid abundant liquidity
UKRAINE · Report · 26 Feb 2021

The end of the IMF mission without a result, continued nonresident demand for local state bonds and sanctions against advocates of the “Russian world” were the main topics in Ukraine at the start of the year. The IMF virtual mission ended its work in mid-February, reporting “productive discus...

In QE we trust. Zelenskiy reports disagreements with the IMF
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Feb 2021

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed some disagreements with the IMF, when speaking at Forum “Ukraine 30”. In particular, he mentioned the Fund has multiple comments to the draft law on the High Council of Justice he submitted to the parliament recently. Reload of the High Council of Justice is ...

The IMF mission ends with "no result"
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2021

The IMF virtual mission finished its work, reported the head of the IMF office in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman, according to Interfax Ukraine news agency. Predictably, no staff level agreement was reached. “The discussion was productive; however, more progress is needed towards completing the first re...

The NBU Monetary Policy Committee: two members voted for a prime rate increase
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Feb 2021

The NBU released the summary of the Monetary Policy Committee discussion on the prime rate decision. As we see from the summary all members of the Committee perfectly recognize that inflation is already above 6% prime rate. However, the majority of the members are treating the inflation tendency ...

Recovery outlook: neither bad nor good
UKRAINE · Forecast · 28 Jan 2021

Ukraine survived 2020 rather smoothly, compared to the rest of the world. Economic growth dropped by 4.5% y/y, which is a very good result for Ukraine in the storm of global crisis. Incomes continued to grow. The current account balance reached an astonishing surplus of $6.9 billion, or 4.6% of ...

Prime rate moves into negative territory
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Jan 2021

The NBU Board left prime rate unchanged at 6%. The decision was delivered despite consumer inflation has already sped up to 6.3% y/y in January, according to the NBU Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko. Already in February inflation will break 7% ceiling. This means real policy rate from now will be in ne...

The authorities return natural gas price regulation amid public protests
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

The Cabinet returned price regulation for natural gas on January 13th. The decision was delivered on the heels of mass protests against tariffs’ increase. From January 2021 many gas distributing companies have increased natural gas prices for customers, substantially on the back of growing prices...

Zelenskiy attempts to remove the Head of the Constitutional court after scandalous records released
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Dec 2020

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ordered to remove the Head of the Constitutional court Oleksandr Tupytskiy from his position for two months. Mr. Tupytskiy will remain a judge of the Constitutional court but he will not execute his duties for two months, the President Office explains. This move is t...

Mysterious non-residents: the hryvnia weakens signaling eased demand for local state bonds
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

On Dec 22nd MinFin managed to raise UAH 18.3 billion and $138.5 million locally. That’s an apparent success even though the issuance less than a week ago on Dec 15th was twice as large. The lion's share of the issue, UAH 13.8 billion as well as $138.5 million, has less than a one-year maturity. S...

The IMF starts on-line mission to Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Dec 2020

The IMF mission will start first review under current Stand-By Arrangement on Dec 21st, according to Interfax News agency, citing words of the IMF representative in Ukraine Gösta Ljungman. The meetings will be online. They will start next week and will resume in January 2021. Finally, Ukrainian a...

Budget 2021 approved with 5.5% of GDP deficit
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 15, parliament voted in spending plan 2021 with 5.5% of GDP central budget deficit.The final document has not been released year but it is expected to be close to the one we analyzed recently. The authorities claim the spending plan was approved by the IMF but we did not see any...

U-turn in demand for the hryvnia-denominated state bonds
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 15, all of us were shocked to see the huge demand for hryvnia-denominated state bonds that MinFin enjoyed. Just for one day the authorities attracted UAH 42.1 billion (nearly $1.5 billion), $266.1 million and EUR56.7 million. To compare, for 11M2020 MinFin managed to raise to co...

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