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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The military party speaks up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Jul 2020

In his July 5, Independence Day, speech Vladimir Padrino, ratified as minister of Defense for sixth year in a row, positioned the Armed Forces (FANB) as an anti-imperialist, revolutionary, and Bolivarian corps that will never allow the democratic opposition led by Juan Guaidó to exert political p...

CNE: Securing jobs for the regime’s new “best friends”
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Jul 2020

On 1 July, the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced the rules for the 6 December 2020 parliamentary elections. The new system guarantees PSUV a strong majority in the National Assembly (AN) and opens an institutional space for the small parties grouped as the Negotiating Table (MDN) geared ...

New CNE in a rush
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 27 Jun 2020 · 1 response

The new National Electoral Council (CNE) rushes to change the rules in time for the December 2020 legislative elections following orders from the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ.) The plan is to reform 12 articles of the Elections Law in order to ensure PSUV’s control over the National Assembly ...

Revising down 2020 oil forecast following new U.S. sanctions
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2020

We revise down our oil forecasts for 2020 owing to new sanctions announced by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on June 18 and the chilling effect we expect them to have. Our forecast now has output averaging 465,000 barrels per day in 2020, compared with our previous 20...

The new CNE: a political offensive
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jun 2020 · 1 response

On 12 June 2020, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice hastily appointed the new leadership of the National Electoral Council (CNE), ahead of its self-imposed deadline. It also instructed the new CNE to reform the Organic Electoral Processes Law, a duty that can only be discharged by the National Assem...

Outlook for 2020 inflation depends on epidemic
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jun 2020

Consumer price inflation sped up slightly to 53 percent month on month in May from 50 percent in April. Year-on-year inflation accelerated to 5,200 percent. May inflation was driven by a spike in dollar prices in April (+104 percent) that was felt with a lag in May, the rise in black market ga...

Appeasing
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Covid-19 and gasoline shortages brought protests and recession. On 1 June 2020 the government started trying to appease by easing the shutdown and imposing a gasoline rationing system that guarantees a significant rent to Homeland ID holders. The economy reopens while the number of Covid-19 c...

2020-2022 Outlook: Hitting bottom or continuing freefall?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 May 2020

Our outlook through 2022 begins with a single scenario for 2020, then branches off into two scenarios for 2021–2022 that we consider equally likely: Regime Change or Chavismo Persists. In both scenarios, Maduro is assumed to remain in power at least through the end of 2020. A collapsing oil se...

Hyperinflation will persist despite price controls
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2020

Consumer prices surged in April owing to a spike in black-market dollar prices, the arrival of Covid-19, the government response to Covid-19, and gasoline shortages. Month-on-month inflation accelerated to 50 percent in April from 23 percent in March. Consumer prices have risen by 263 percent so ...

Dark outlook
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 May 2020

An early countrywide lockdown has doubtless helped keep Covid-19 case counts low. And the health emergency has provided Maduro the opportunity to show a capacity to govern, control, and set the agenda. As in previous crises, which helped Maduro promote regime cohesiveness and deflect blame, this ...

Oil forecast 2020-2021: near total collapse
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2020

Even compared to the current terrible state of Venezuela’s oil industry, we forecast that output and exports will plunge further this year and the next. In our 2020–2021 central scenario, oil output falls throughout this year, reaching 250,000 barrels per day in December 2020 (from 907,000 in Dec...

The wolf took off the sheep’s skin
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2020

Easing the food industry’s operations and its distribution channels would be the way to go in order to mitigate the impact that Covid-19 contention measures and gasoline shortages have on local supplies. Instead, the government is reinstating price controls and de facto expropriating inventories ...

Covid-19 will boost inflation in Q2
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Apr 2020

After a brief spell of disinflation earlier this year, we now expect inflation to speed up in the second quarter, owing in part to Covid-19 and related factors. Month-on-month inflation will exceed 50 percent starting in May. The government has begun to ramp up public spending. We think it’ll ...

Covid-19 in Venezuela: New challenges, old policies
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Apr 2020

Governments and parliaments across the world scramble to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic supporting consumption and easing bank lending. Initiatives and their timing are country-specific, but the overarching goal is to mitigate human suffering and protect the economy in order to allo...

U.S. indictments escalate pressures
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2020

On March 26, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed indictments against 14 members of the Maduro regime, including Nicolás Maduro, Diosdado Cabello, Maikel Moreno, Chief Justice of the Supreme Tribunal, and Vladimir Padrino, minister of Defense. Charges include money laundering, drug trafficking...

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