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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government and opposition continue to circle each other
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Mar 2021

Three months into 2021, the government and opposition are continuing to circle each other, each attempting to strengthen its position, neither willing to make the first move toward negotiations, and both afraid of appearing weak and incurring the wrath of their radical factions. The Maduro go...

We extend our inflation outlook to 2022 (1,600%)
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

We have extended our outlook for inflation, exchange rates, and dollar purchasing power to 2022. In our central scenario, inflation slows to 2,200 percent this year and 1,600 percent next year from 2,500 percent in 2020. We continue to forecast under one central and two alternative scenarios. ...

2021–2022 Outlook: Crony Capitalism
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

This report lays out our central scenario outlook for 2021–2022, which we call Crony Capitalism. It assumes that the regime stays in power and keeps its policy framework essentially unchanged. Economic policy is pragmatic to a degree, but the government is unable to meaningfully improve expectati...

A chance for negotiations in 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

This year may bring mediated talks between Venezuela’s regime and opposition. The United States and European Union both want to push for a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis that leads to competitive elections, making sure the required institutional changes are implemented. Maduro ha...

The hyperinflation menace remains near
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Our central inflation forecast scenario has inflation slowing down a bit in 2021, to 2,200 percent this year from 2,500 percent last year. Black market dollars appreciate against the bolivar by 1,700 percent and sell for 20 million bolivars by year end but lose bolivar purchasing power for the fo...

Regime in control but lacking legitimacy in 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Maduro will start 2021 in a relatively strong position. When the new National Assembly is inaugurated on 5 January 2021, his regime will control all branches of government. He has survived tough U.S. sanctions, weakened the opposition, and kept the military on his side. But his regime, which mobi...

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Almost simultaneous electoral events organized by the Maduro regime and the democratic opposition revealed two grave trends: voting is no longer an efficient means to express the will of the people in Venezuela, and the population is barely connected to politics and political leadership. Moreover...

BCV gold remains blocked at BOE
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

The appeal over which administration controls the Venezuelan gold held in custody by the Bank of England (BOE) is heading to the U.K.'s highest court and the case may not be heard until at least October or November 2021. Neither party can access the 31 tons of Venezuelan gold held by BOE until th...

Public spending and prices spiked in November
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

After a surprising slowdown in October, inflation returned with a vengeance in November. Consumer prices rose by 62 percent month-on-month, compared with 21 percent in October. The spike was driven by public spending, which tripled in November compared with October. We expect that momentum from ...

Venezuela webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy - Is Biden a game changer for Venezuela?
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2020

In our webinar, Ruth Krivoy discusses the implications of a Biden US presidency on Venezuela and the economic, political and market outlook for the country in 2021, as well as recent developments such as the country's resumption of direct oil shipments to China.

Policy tweaks help but won’t lead to growth
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2020

After two years of restrictive and contractionary central bank policies to rein in hyperinflation, the Maduro government seems to be shifting away from that single-minded focus and looking for ways get the economy growing after seven years of recession. It began to loosen bank reserve requirement...

Opportunities for Venezuela in the Biden administration
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2020

The Trump administration's sanctions and maximum pressure policy in 2017-2020 failed to remove Maduro from power. The upcoming change in administration is an opportunity to recalibrate the role of the United States in the Venezuelan crisis at a time when international support for Guaidó and the o...

Government spending is skyrocketing
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2020

Inflation slowed down surprisingly in October, to 21 percent from 29 percent in September. Public spending didn’t ramp up nearly as strongly as it usually does in October, while tax collection was more vigorous than we had anticipated. The money supply (M2) expanded by merely 19 percent, a pace c...

Outright dictatorship
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Oct 2020

On October 8, the National Constituent Assembly rubber-stamped Nicolás Maduro’s “Anti-Blockade Law” (Ley Contra el Bloqueo, LCB), which authorizes Maduro to suspend the legal system, decide on any matter, and use public assets as he sees fit and in total secrecy. Its objective is to generate fina...

Inflation picks up some
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Oct 2020

Consumer prices rose by 29 percent month on month in September, faster than the August pace of 22 percent. The central bank reports 28 percent in its first timely inflation report in five years. Our base case inflation forecast for 2020 is 2389 percent. The dollar price rises by 1,728% and cl...

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