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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Covid-19 in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Mar 2020

Covid 19 is hitting a Venezuelan people already in a precarious state, lacking reliable supplies of basic services such as running water with which to wash their hands, and supplies of essential goods such as … food. It is also hitting a public health system that already was overwhelmed. This pan...

Three OFAC decisions on Venezuela on 12 March 2020
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Mar 2020

Three general licenses issued on 12 March 2020 by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) hint at a calibrated decision-making process, by increasing financial pressures on the Maduro regime while avoiding harming the payment system or hurting U.S. persons operating...

MasterCard and Visa can continue operating with government-owned banks in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2020

Risk to the payment system has been averted. Today, 12 March 2020, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 15c allowing Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Western Union, and Moneygram to continue transacting with Banco de Venezuela and Banco ...

Disinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Mar 2020

We revise down our estimate for February 2020 inflation to 21 percent from 31 percent, meaning we now estimate disinflation. We also revise down our estimate for January inflation, to 67 percent from 71 percent. These numbers compound to an accumulated inflation rate for the first two months of t...

Impact of the oil price rout on Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2020

The collapse of oil prices significantly worsens Venezuela’s already dire conditions. Oil output is falling, albeit at a slower pace than a year ago, when two nationwide blackouts compounded the effect of US sanctions. Current changes in Pdvsa’s organizational structure and staffing are unlikely ...

Pressures build
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2020

Back from his international tour, Juan Guaidó now faces the challenge of following up on the road map settled on with international allies with political action at home: step up pressures so that presidential and parliamentary elections are held this year and meet international standards as to po...

Assessing the impact of the Rosneft Trading SA sanction
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2020

The sanction imposed on Rosneft Trading SA (RTSA) puts 600 kbd of Venezuelan exports at risk (80 percent of total exports), impairing Venezuela’s ability to import much needed fuel and inputs for refineries and to service its debt to China. Pdvsa is seeking for new traders to replace RTSA but fur...

Expect payment system to gum up on March 22
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2020

On 22 March 2020, General License 15, issued a year earlier by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to allow Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Western Union, and Moneygram to continue to transact with Banco de Venezuela and Banco Bicentenario, will expire. I...

Near-term inflation should slow down
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2020

In our last report, we wrote that, with the dollar having skyrocketed in value against the bolivar over the first few days of the year (42 percent in three business days), we expected inflation to accelerate in January. The ensuing burst of inflation proved even stronger than expected, so today w...

Guaidó retakes the initiative
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jan 2020

Juan Guaidó embarked on a surprise international tour to consolidate international support and retake the political initiative. The opposition coalition he leads wants not only fair legislative elections later this year but also a presidential election redo. The only way Guaidó can strengthen his...

A guide to the petro
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2020

Maduro’s government first announced its intention of creating the petro in December 2017. It would be a cryptocurrency backed by oil and mineral reserves that would free Venezuela’s economy from the dollar’s grip. A year later it sought to sow the idea in the minds of the people by paying a bon...

Inflation speeds up as 2020 begins
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jan 2020

In December, the month-on-month inflation rate reached 50 percent (our estimate), higher than the 36 percent we had forecast. Year-on-year inflation thus ended 2019 at about 9,800 percent, compared with our earlier forecast of 9,050 percent. Inflation was pushed up by rising black market dollar p...

Why?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Jan 2020 · 1 response

On 5 January 2020 the regime carried out a parliamentary coup aimed at replacing Juan Guaidó as president of the National Assembly (AN). It created a fictitious, fraudulent and obedient AN Board while, at the same time, a legitimate Board headed by Juan Guaidó emerged from the vote of 100 deputie...

Forecast with a fork
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 23 Dec 2019

We visualize a single base case for 2020 that splits into two scenarios for 2021–2022. In 2020, the Maduro government runs public policy all year, incentivized by the promise of an electoral victory. The policy stance on price setting and exchange rates stays relaxed, although the legal appara...

Two 2020 pivot points
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Dec 2019

As 2019 comes to a draw, short-term regime changes look distant. The opposition is in disarray; Maduro has the upper hand. We see three political scenarios for 2020–2021. They pivot on assumptions as to how two key events will play out next year: the appointment of a new National Electoral Co...

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