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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Relentless hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Feb 2019

Our monthly inflation estimate for January 2019 rises to 225 percent, exceeding our 200 percent forecast. This mainly reflects the impact of the bolivar’s persistent depreciation in the Dicom segment since November 2018 and the sharp rise in the price of the dollar in the parallel market since Ja...

Severe damage
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2019 · 2 responses

The 28 January 2019 sanctions put the Maduro government in dire straits. According to our calculations, forex earnings will fall by at least $700 million this month and are unlikely to recover. Pdvsa proved being unable to avoid the resounding fall in oil output so far. It was taken by surpri...

Change of government hinges on the military
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Recent moves by Venezuela’s opposition and its international backers may lead to a political transition in the short or medium term. But the Maduro regime might once again muddle through by stalling enough to weaken the opposition’s unity and popularity. It’s still too soon to tell whether regime...

Venezuela Conference Call: A turning point in the crisis?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2019

Events are unfolding quickly as the international community recognizes an opposition leader as the head of an interim government in Venezuela. Will this power shift be enough to pressure a regime change, and how could it unfold? What would be the impact on the country’s economy and markets in the...

Pressure on Maduro mounts
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Escalating pressures on Maduro, Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly, was symbolically sworn in to "assume the powers of the Executive" as "interim president” before huge crowds in Caracas and other cities on January 23. The demonstration convened that same day by the government was a ...

2019: Drowning by hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Hyperinflation in 2018 was fierce. The annual inflation rate closed at 2 million percent (our base case) after accelerating steadily throughout the year. Consumers face frequent and intense price increases, distortions in relative prices and intermittent shortages of basic consumer goods. Thei...

2019-2020 Outlook: Disorderly default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Dec 2018 · 2 responses

In our 2019–2020 central scenario, Venezuela’s economy remains in a deep hole and the external deficit opens so wide that something has to give, though we don’t know what that will be. Venezuela is already going through a disorderly default on its external debt, even if so far it has occurred in ...

Weakened “de facto” president in power starting in January 2019
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2018

January 10 of next year, the day Maduro begins what he considers his second presidential term, will also mark the day that many of his citizens and the rest of the world will see him as now an officially illegitimate president, one who stayed in power through an undemocratic, illegal process. ...

Inflation closes at 2.2 million percent in 2018
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2018

We adjusted down our August-November 2018 inflation series reflecting new data available. As a result, our inflation forecast for December goes down to 198.7 percent % and the 2018 year-on-year rate closes at 2.2 million percent for 2018. This annual forecast is significantly lower than the proje...

Walking the tightrope
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Nov 2018

Not only did the Colombian guerrilla penetration of the Orinoco Mining Belt and its attack against a column of Venezuelan troops inside the Venezuelan border last November 4 cast light on what a tough time Maduro is having controlling the mining region and Venezuela’s borders, it also caused shoc...

Taking off again
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2018

Hyperinflation took a break in October, in line with what we anticipated would happen after the September shock. We revised down our October estimate to 208%, from 224% in our previous report. The monthly inflation rate slowed significantly in October from 232 percent in September but, neverthele...

Toxic gold
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2018

Toxic gold President Trump's 1 November 2018 Executive Order (EO) hits Venezuelan gold, a sprawling business for the ruling elites and the main route used to circumvent the August 2017 sanctions. Fear of sanctions will slow the formal gold business in Venezuela, eventually leading to paralysis in...

The Maduro Plan, two months later
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2018

Two months after Maduro’s wayward speech introducing his so-called “Recovery, Growth, and Prosperity Program”, we have a clearer idea of the government’s playbook and objectives. We are equally clear on the fact that said plan is bad, and its implementation will be worse. Maduro’s base seems t...

Feeling the shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Oct 2018

Our September 2018 inflation estimate is 231 percent, close to the August record of 236 percent. Accumulated inflation for the first nine months of the year rose to 125,748 percent and the September annual rate to 569,082 percent. For October we project a slight slowdown to 224 percent. Infla...

International actors will be key
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2018

With the Venezuelan crisis spilling across its borders, pressure on the Maduro regime is coming from all directions: sanctions, formal diplomatic actions, critical reports from multilateral agencies, and tough rhetoric from the United States. Venezuela was high on the list of concerns of the usua...

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