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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A great leap…in the wrong direction
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Sep 2018

The Maduro regime is trying to find a way to provide minimal standards of living without giving up power or rents. In recent statements and actions, including a grand stabilization plan announced on August 17, Maduro comes off as someone open to pragmatism and responsible public administration to...

An enormous inflationary shock
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Sep 2018

The measures announced on 17 August by president Maduro created turmoil, on top of the enactment of monetary reconversion and increases in regulated prices, and contributed to an upsurge in inflation well above the already worrying acceleration we predicted for the month. Its direct impact will b...

Much ado about (almost) nothing
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Sep 2018

According to the government, Exchange Agreement 1 dated September 7, 2018 brings free convertibility, a market-determined single floating exchange rate, and legal security in forex matters. But very little has changed. There is no free convertibility. Forex can only be traded through authorized e...

From bad to worse
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2018

The plan Maduro unveiled on 17 August 2018 aims at coping with the risks of social outbreak and blind violence sparked by hyperinflation and recession. Yet, it doesn’t address the root of the problems and rather raises the specter of ungovernability. Local industry may get further hurt along the ...

Hyperinflation doesn’t give in to isolated measures
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Aug 2018

​As we predicted, the monthly inflation rate in July 2018 slowed to 117 percent from 127 percent in June. (Our July forecast was 116 percent.) Accumulated inflation in this year to 31 July is 11,186 percent and the July year-on-year rate is 93,927 percent. The July slowdown reflected relative st...

​One swallow does not make a summer
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Aug 2018

The National Assembly Decree repealing the Law on Illicit Foreign Currency Transactions was published in Official Gazette No. 41,452 dated 2 August 2018. Aside from the legal issues arising from the fact that the Constituent Assembly has no power to repeal laws, this is the most relevant measure ...

Outlook 2018-2019: No volte-face
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Aug 2018 · 1 response

Living conditions in Venezuela have been crushed by hyperinflation and the collapse of basic public services. In our updated 2018–2019 outlook, things are projected to worsen. GDP falls by a third over two years. Inflation exceeds 2 million percent. Real wages and interest rates plunge. Oil p...

Maduro controls politics but not inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jul 2018

With elections over and the opposition grappling with its own internal differences, Nicolás Maduro has focused on renewing his alliance with the military and keeping a firm grip on the ruling PSUV. He and the top military brass have a tight relationship and are keeping a sharp lookout for any sig...

Hyperinflation with a life of its own
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2018

We revised up our monthly inflation estimate for June to 127 percent, from 103 percent in our previous report and our July forecast to 116 percent (from 107 percent). Inflation will accelerate further in August to 148 percent owing to seasonal factors. Inflation for the first eight months will re...

Maduro's "new beginning"
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Diosdado Cabello was elected by consensus, without contenders, as president of the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) replacing Delcy Rodríguez after having been in the shadows since 2015. This is a step in chavismo’s reengineering that Maduro dubs as the "new beginning". The decision reflects a...

​Maduro seeks more control
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jun 2018

Maduro freshens up his cabinet by bringing in "more women and youngsters". Yet he is simply reshuffling people already holding top positions in government or chavista organizations. One of the cabinet changes stands out, though, as it hints at what Maduro is looking for early on in his second ...

Multiple exchange rates are back again
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2018

For some time, the government has been looking for ways to channel remittances trough the Dicom system to the central bank. We estimate this inflow at about $1 billion a year, the government seems to believe it’s around $3 billion. The huge gap between the Dicom rate and the price of the dollar i...

Hyperinflation at full speed
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jun 2018

We revised up our inflation estimate for May 2018 to 107 percent, from 102 percent in our previous report. Accumulated inflation for January-May 2018 rises to 2,186 percent and the year-on-year rate for May goes up to 29,360 percent. We forecast a slight slowdown in the June monthly rate to 1...

Rough seas ahead
VENEZUELA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

Holding fair elections by year-end is on the public agenda again, and civil society is beginning to organize. Current bad policy and bad outcomes point to a full scale debt restructuring on the horizon.

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 May 2018

Maduro’s victory on 20 May didn’t convince anyone, neither at home nor abroad. New U.S. sanctions and Lima Group pressures limit further the government’s room to maneuver. It’s too soon to tell whether Maduro strengthened his grip on chavismo after his 20 May victory or whether elections lead to ...

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