Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ELECTIONS OUTLOOK...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Being proclaimed is not the same as winning
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 18 May 2018

Elections are around the corner without a clear picture of the results to be expected on Sunday. We hold to our base case that Nicolás Maduro will be proclaimed winner. Nevertheless, his political footing will weaken as a result of doubts surrounding both the electoral outcome and his ability to ...

Hyperinflation worsens
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2018

Our monthly inflation rate forecast for May and June 2018 is 102 percent and 110 percent. Demand for money collapses as expectations deteriorate in the face of growing political pressures and macroeconomic imbalances. Accumulated inflation in the first semester 2018 rises to 4,583 percent and the...

Maduro will declare victory. Then what?
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2018

Venezuela’s presidential election is just over a week away, but few citizens are passionate about the campaign. Folks are more concerned with day-to-day life under hyperinflation and collapsing public services. Surveys suggest that, nonetheless, more people intend to vote than they did a few mont...

Adding fuel to the crisis
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 May 2018

The Banesco takeover hurts financial sector stability, feeds distrust, and fuels hyperinflation, recession, and loss of value of the bolivar. The largest bank in the country, accounting for 25 percent of total deposits and 26 percent of total loans, 8 million depositors (in a country with only 31...

Rough seas ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The clear deterioration of the balance of payments augurs difficult days ahead. We update our foreign exchange cash flow projection for 2018 taking into account two significant pieces of information: lower than expected oil production and exports in the first quarter of 2018 and the resumption of...

A (tenuous) sign of opposition unity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 19 Apr 2018

On April 17, the National Assembly (AN) approved a criminal investigation against Nicolás Maduro for corruption cases stemming from Odebrecht’s activities in Venezuela, upon request by the Supreme Court of Justice "in exile"[1] and former Attorney General Luisa Ortega Díaz. The decision was appro...

Inflation rising, after a break in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2018

We revised down our monthly inflation rate estimate for March to 62 percent, significantly lower than our 89 percent forecast.This reflects the lagged effect of the decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market in February (-8%) which interrupted the vertiginous January surge (+123 pe...

Panama – Venezuela: a crescendo, on the eve of the Summit of the Americas
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Apr 2018

The Panama – Venezuela crisis is part of a process that began last year. The crescendo comes just a week before the Summit of the Americas, scheduled on April 13-14 in Lima, Peru. In October 2017, the Panamanian government set visa requirements for Venezuelan citizens. Two months later, the Venez...

Falcón’s very fine line
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2018 · 1 response

With seven weeks to go before the presidential election, Henri Falcón’s campaign has failed to lift off. The only way he can win is by presenting himself as moderate enough to win over certain factions of the Nicolás Maduro regime and minimize their exit cost but radical enough to persuade opposi...

2018–2019 forecast: Hyperinflation, recession, and default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Our outlook for 2018–2019 has the economy crumbling and hyperinflation worsening under Maduro’s policies. GDP shrinks by a quarter over two years, and inflation easily reaches six digits by 2019. Real wages and interest rates plunge to unprecedented depths. Oil prices rise to $54 a barrel, but ex...

Inflation doesn’t budge, despite calm in the parallel market
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Price volatility is on the rise. In our view this reflects hyperinflationary dynamics, the irregularity of supplies, seasonality in some agricultural goods, and the influence of the cash crisis on prices. The fees associated with the use of cash in payments have risen as the cash shortage intensi...

Chaos and control
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2018

The opposition decided to boycott the April 22 presidential election and push for a credible process later in the year. International pressure on the regime is ratcheting up: Venezuela’s neighbors are militarizing their borders—ostensibly to deal with the growing influx of Venezuelan refugees—and...

Foreign exchange potpourri
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2018

The government and the central bank returned to the forex scene with Exchange Agreement 39[1] after a six-month hiatus. The official explanation of the pause is that the sanctions imposed by the United States made fund transfers impossible. The changes make up a medley of advances and setbacks...

One swallow doesn’t make a summer
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2018

We revise down our monthly inflation rate for January 2018 to 82 percent based on new information available. This is below our December estimate (90 percent) and our preliminary forecast for January (112 percent). This slowdown is temporary, in our view, and mainly reflects the reduction in food ...

The abyss
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2018 · 1 response

By moving up the date of the presidential election and imposing measures to rig it further in its favor, the government has all but killed mediated talks and the possibility of sanctions alleviation and minimal legitimacy abroad. Opposition leaders have announced that it will reject any deal t...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.