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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

In a stupor
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Jan 2018

Hyperinflation is an unprecedented experience in Venezuela. The population is quickly moving from stupor and bewilderment to a frantic search for survival tools. Inflation accelerates dramatically as demand for money collapses, money supply surges and shortages worsen. The monthly inflation ra...

Our take on current protests
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 08 Jan 2018 · 1 response

2018 starts off with social conflict. Riots began shortly after the municipal elections, the final event of the electoral cycle that allowed Maduro to hold on to power thanks to a new social contract: the promise of subsidized food in exchange for votes. The "Pax Madurista" turned out to be short...

Holding our breath at least until January
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Dec 2017

We see two scenarios for 2018. In one, Nicolás Maduro consolidates his position as head of a radicalized authoritarian regime and remains in power through a sham election early in the year, at great economic and human cost. In the other, social and economic hardship at home and pressure from abro...

Dark, like oil
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 22 Dec 2017 · 1 response

The outlook for the Venezuelan economy in 2018 is dire. Deep depression and hyperinflation augur hard times. Policy reforms are unlikely and foreign funding will not lift Venezuela out of its problems, for now.

2017 inflation: 2300 percent
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2017 · 1 response

​Hyperinflation is the new normal in Venezuela since November. We estimate that the monthly inflation rate reached 56 percent in November and project 61 percent for December. This forecast has a slight downside risk due to seasonal factors, but hyperinflation dynamics could easily override season...

Negotiations will shed light on 2018 outlook
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2017 · 1 response

Nicolás Maduro wants to stay in power. Whether he will do so through a snap election in early 2018 with no pretense of fairness or legitimacy or by making concessions to boost his government’s legitimacy before semi-competitive elections later in the year is up in the air. Many analysts think tha...

2017-2019 forecast: a crumbling economy and Maduro in power
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2017

Our 2017–2019 forecast sees the economy crumbling, hyperinflation setting in, and Maduro's policies staying in place. GDP falls by a quarter over our forecast horizon, and inflation approaches 23,000 percent by 2019. Oil output and exports continue to slip, but the current account becomes positiv...

This year’s sixth wage hike
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Nov 2017

The sixth salary adjustment of 2017 came into effect on November 1, 2017. The so-called integral minimum wage, which the government now calls "the wage that protects the people” rises by 40 percent over the level set just two months ago with a 30 percent increase in the base salary and a 48 perce...

Inflation reaches the 50% milestone
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Nov 2017

We revised up our October estimate up to 50.0 percent from 45.1 percent in our previous report. This significant adjustment reflects strong price increases in October in many food items, including over 100 percent hikes in chicken and beef.

Maduro's foreign debt strategy
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Nov 2017 · 3 responses

After keeping markets on the edge by delaying payment on the Pdvsa 2020 until the last minute, Nicolás Maduro announced he is moving to “refinance and restructure” (sic) Venezuela’s foreign debt, thereby opening a new political front with default on the horizon. On Thursday 2 November, Maduro den...

A step closer to formal dictatorship
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Oct 2017 · 1 response

The government beat all expectations in state elections held last October 15 thanks to a combination of low opposition turnout, electoral machine efficiency, and dirty National Electoral Council tricks. These results may have cleared the way for Nicolás Maduro’s regime to consolidate as an undemo...

Chavismo’s electoral machinery in action
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Oct 2017

The unexpected outcome of the 15 October elections shows that Maduro’s government worked hard to raise chavismo’s political-electoral machinery to a new level and managed to have its base turn out almost entirely (30 percent of the voters) while at the same time hampering the opposition’s turnout...

On the eve of 15 October 2017
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Oct 2017

The importance of these elections comes from its potential effectiveness in heralding change in 2018. For the first time in chavismo’s history, the opposition is visibly ahead and the government has confessed it: Maduro announced that chavismo would win 10 state governorships (currently it contro...

Inflation continues accelerating
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Oct 2017

Our October monthly inflation rate forecast rises to 45 percent. The year-to-October 31 rate jumps to 831 percent and the year-on-year rate reaches 1311 percent. We revised upwards our inflation estimates for August and September. The August month-on-month rate went up to 35 percent (from 33 p...

Will willingness and capacity to pay suffice?
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Oct 2017 · 1 response

We hold to our view that the Maduro government is willing to service its debt and we judge that it probably can afford to. But we observe a jump in the (small) risk that technical obstacles to debt service may lead to a default. Much as he’d like to, Nicolás Maduro won’t be able to avoid the ...

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