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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Digging itself in deeper
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Aug 2016

The speech delivered on August 9 by Tibisay Lucena, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), marks the beginning of a phase of heightened conflict and uncertainty in Venezuelan politics. Her words suggesting "end of October" as a possible date for collection of the "manifestations of wi...

Depression and inflation but no default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 08 Aug 2016 · 1 response

In our central scenario, we forecast that, in 2016–2017, Venezuela’s economy will continue to shrink and that inflation will stay in the triple digits. Helped by recovering oil prices, however, the pace of contraction will slow down in the second half of 2016 and even more so in 2017. Despite the...

The recall moves forward
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Aug 2016 · 2 responses

On August 1, nearly three weeks after the deadline, Tibisay Lucena, president of the National Electoral Council (CNE), announced that the MUD succeeded in gathering the "expressions of will” required to qualify as applicant for a recall referendum (1 percent of the voter registry in each state). ...

Maduro likes how the military governs
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jul 2016

By promoting General Vladimir Padrino López as virtual head of cabinet (some say co-president) and praising his governing abilities, Maduro is trying to take power and political responsibility off of his shoulders and onto those of the military, which has so far shown its full support. By acce...

Co-government or militaristic transition?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2016 · 1 response

General Vladimir Padrino Lopez openly joined the political game. In addition to his role as leader of the Bolivarian National Armed Force (FANB) and defense minister, he was appointed Chief of the Great Civic-Military Mission for Sovereign and Secure Supplies by President Maduro, a sort of chief ...

Citibank's decision
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2016 · 1 response

On July 11, Citibank notified the Central Bank of Venezuela and Banco de Venezuela that it will discontinue its correspondent banking relationship and service to their accounts in 30 days. The news was brought into the open by President Maduro. It took everyone by surprise and opens room for unce...

Impact of the China debt relief
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Jul 2016 · 4 responses

According to the media, the government of China extended the repayment schedules for Venezuela’s loans by two years. The information has not been officially confirmed.

Dicom drives inflation in July
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Jul 2016

The newly created Committees for Supplies and Production (CLAP) are in charge of basic food rationing. They are failing to address shortages: their footprint is too small, the supply of goods to distribute is too small, and they choose the winners on political grounds. The government seeks to imp...

Dialogue in limbo and recall referendum underway
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2016 · 1 response

The Venezuelan government is under observation by the Organization of American States. The Permanent Council discussed the report issued by Luis Almagro, Secretary General. Further actions by the OAS are on hold for now, waiting for the Venezuelan government to signal its willingness to actively ...

Shortages, expectations and Dicom push inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2016

Available information hints at worsening supplies, a trend that may last at least until July assuming inputs for industry start arriving soon. Despite the decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market and slowing demand because of falling real income and consumer credit slowdown, infl...

Weakening Foreign Assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jun 2016

Public sector foreign assets are falling and becoming less liquid. According to our calculations, these assets (excluding Pdvsa) closed at $19.7 billion on 31 May 2016, $6.0 billion lower than our December 2015 estimate ($25.7 billion).

Not a tipping point yet
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Jun 2016

On June 14, violent riots and looting were reported in Cumaná, capital of Sucre state, the poorest and most chavista state in Venezuela. This comes after more than 100 lootings across the country in recent weeks.Guided by the 1989 "Caracazo", which put governance to a severe test, conventional wi...

International pressures escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jun 2016 · 1 response

The report on Venezuela published on May 31 by Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), will heighten international pressures on the Venezuelan government if it’s approved by the organization’s permanent council.

All In With the Recall Referendum
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 May 2016

A united opposition has gone all in to oust Nicolás Maduro through a recall referendum. Massive support for the initial petition to hold a recall vote and recent surveys show that Maduro would lose the referendum badly. The Maduro regime has responded by escalating tensions and granting itself em...

Relief comes from oil, not from China
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2016

We update our foreign exchange cash flow forecast for 2016 bringing into the picture a slightly more positive outlook for oil prices and our reading of Minister Miguel Pérez Abad’s recent announcements on China, imports, and foreign exchange policy. Our deficit forecast remains almost unchanged a...

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