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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Still Digging
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Feb 2016

President Maduro’s announcements ratify the policy status quo and confirm there’s little room to liberalize controls and to correct the distortions that underpin the government's alliances with interest groups profiting from them. At the same time, Luis Salas’s departure from the Cabinet hint tha...

2016 starts with strong inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Feb 2016

On 15 January 2016, BCV published inflation data for the first three quarters of 2015. The Bank reported 108.7 percent in the year to September and 141.5 percent YOY. These results came out below our forecast (157.1 percent for January-September and 197.5 percent YOY.)

Vortex
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2016

In the eight weeks since parliamentary elections handed the opposition a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, the government and opposition have tested each other’s limits and gone to the brink of total institutional breakdown. For now, both sides have an interest in preventing a full bl...

Double-edged Sword
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Jan 2016

The Economic Emergency Decree is a political operation aimed at preventing the opposition from offering an alternative to Maduro’s political model and policies. Maduro intends to circumvent the "forced cohabitation" with the new opposition-controlled National Assembly by seeking powers to run the...

Frontal Collision
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jan 2016

The new National Assembly was peacefully seated on 5 January 2016 but the risk of surprises hasn’t been wiped out. Maduro’s strategy is to fuel conflict and to preclude the new assembly from legislating and from controlling and auditing the government. It rests on the Supreme Tribunal of Justi...

Whirlwind
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2015

The opposition won in a landslide on December 6, taking 58 percent of the national vote and a two-thirds National Assembly majority. Participation reached 74 percent, a record for legislative elections. Voters turned on the powerful heads of Maduro’s ruling coalition by voting against coalitio...

The third gold swap of 2015 was done in October
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2015 · 1 response

We infer the third gold swap of this year was done by BCV in October, according to the Bank’s balance sheet published today. Gold holdings fell by $393 million in October. The decline in the 9-month moving average price used by the Bank to value its monetary gold holdings explains $100 million. T...

The opposition’s overwhelming victory
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2015

The electoral system designed to favor the majority worked effectively in favor of the opposition. The opposition coalition (MUD) garnered won 67 percent of the seats (112 deputies) with 57 percent of the vote and the Great Patriotic Pole (GPP) ended up with 33 percent of the seats (55 deputies) ...

Guide for December 6
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2015

What’s at stake? All 167 seats in the unicameral National Assembly are up for grabs on December 6: 113 deputies will be elected individually (by name, not by parties) and 54 will be chosen from party lists, allocated following the D'Hondt method.

Coexistence or new government?
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2015

With December 6 (“6D”) National Assembly elections a week away, surveys continue to show the opposition leading by 10 to 30 percentage points. However, with a still-large share of undecided voters, an unequal distribution of seats that gives the government a built-in advantage, and the government...

Looking beyond December
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Nov 2015

With a month to go before the December 6 (“6D”) National Assembly elections and polls showing the opposition’s lead widening, the question is no longer whether the opposition will win but whether it’ll win by a landslide. We expect an absolute majority but not a three-fifths or two-thirds superma...

Del Pino on Pdvsa's 2016-2017 maturities
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 06 Nov 2015

PDVSA President Eulogio del Pino said in a phone interview yesterday, November 5, that the company is considering proposing a renegotiation of the maturities of the bonds due in 2016 and 2017. In our view, his message is quite clear: Pdvsa is working on a market-friendly debt reprofiling exercise...

Inflation accelerates again in November
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Nov 2015

We forecast the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) accelerating again in November to 13.8 percent from 12.0 percent in October.The year-on-year rate rises to 256.7 percent from 228.1 percent.

Non-oil exports at $7 billion?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Nov 2015

President Maduro has been boasting about record non-oil exports for months. Most recently, on November 3, he said that non-oil exports rose to $7 billion in 2015. In our view, non-oil exports are around $3 billion. Most government-owned enterprises are in dire conditions and private companies str...

The policy framework remains intact
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Oct 2015

President Maduro’s announcements on October 20 send a message to his radical followers: the government deepens economic controls and will stay on course even if it were to lose control of the National Assembly. The announcements hurt business expectations, deepen the recession and leave intact th...

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