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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Minimum Wage Increase
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Nov 2014

President Maduro will announce a minimum wage increase to enter into effect shortly. This will be the second consecutive year with three minimum wage increases. The government has not commented on the amount of the planned increase. We believe the raise will be between 10 and 18 percent. On the l...

Sliding Oil Prices and Approval Ratings
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Surveys taken between end September and early October show deteriorating support for Nicolás Maduro and his administration. Experts see no chance that these numbers will improve in the short term. Things are looking up for the opposition, which could win a parliamentary majority...

No Adjustment Till 2014
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Our already gloomy outlook on economic policy has darkened over the last month. A relatively pragmatic head of economic policy has been demoted in favor of more traditional chavista policymakers. President Maduro has formally requested special powers to rule by decree. The gover...

Back to Basics
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2014

Executive Summary With $6.4 billion in Venezuelan public debt service payments coming due in the fourth quarter of 2014, $10.0 billion coming due annually between 2015 and 2017, and liquid foreign assets at dangerously low levels, markets are nervous about the possibility of default. This report ...

Foreign Exchange Agreement 30
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Sep 2014 · 1 response

Foreign Exchange Agreement (CC) 30 seeks to increase the bolivar amount that Fonden receives from Pdvsa for the windfall tax stipulated in Decree 8807 (20 February 2013). The contribution is set in dollars and up to 50 percent can be converted in bolivars. Until now, the conversion was done by th...

Maduro’s Announcements
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Sep 2014

President Maduro’s announcements focus on bureaucratic reorganization, confirming the power of the radical wing of chavismo. The new organization replicates the Cuban hierarchical structure with strong military presence. Both the rhetoric and appointments ratify the political-social model of cont...

What’s Maduro’s Plan?
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2014

Executive Summary To say that there’s a “Nicolas Maduro Plan” for the economy is an overstatement. Moreover, insofar as one does exist, we think little of it will be implemented beyond gasoline price hikes. It’s hard to describe the “Maduro Plan” because the government is trying to avoid the impr...

Ritornello
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Aug 2014

Ritornello: A recurrent musical section that alternates with different episodes of contrasting material. The repetition can be exact or varied to a greater or lesser extent. Encyclopedia Britannica. Here we are, writing about the exchange rate again. A window of opportunity for reform of the fore...

Maduro Courts His Base
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Nicolás Maduro and his government are trying to control chavismo’s political levers to shape their own power structures and obtain support to carry out partial economic reforms. We don’t know whether he will succeed. The chavista base is unhappy. And the III PSUV Congress, conve...

Bounded Power and Modest Reforms
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 21 Jul 2014

Executive Summary This report extends our forecast horizon to 2016. Our previous outlook expected Maduro’s administration to carry out limited actions and reforms in 2014 that would help the economy begin to recover from stagflation some time in 2015. Instead, government inaction and poor executi...

Gradual Convergence
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Tensions within chavismo on the eve of the III PSUV Congress are surfacing against a backdrop of widespread social discontent owing to economic hardship. One poll finds that household sentiment is at its lowest since 2003. With Giordani’s exit and signs of a reformist movement w...

What To Expect in the Post-Giordani Era
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2014

Jorge Giordani’s departure was a decision made by the powers that be. The letter he published in the chavista website Aporrea [1] was the means he chose to expose the discomfort and the ins and outs of the government’s decision making process. These events strengthen Nicolás Maduro and the reform...

Rodolfo Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani on the BCV board
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

Today, 10 June 2014, the Official Gazette reports the appointment of Rodolfo Marco Torres, minister of Finance, as member of the board of the BCV as member of the Cabinet. Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani, who was a member of the board throughout his tenure as minister of Planning. (According...

Inaction Speaks Louder than Words
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2014

Executive Summary The two dialogue processes that began in April are stuck. The government has made clear that it doesn’t intend to make a single concession to the opposition and that its promises to the business sector are mere words. The government has no incentive to make meaningful political ...

Better Than Nothing
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The government and opposition moderates have sat down to negotiate an end to the street protests and violence. The process is fragile and may be abandoned at any moment. The opposition is divided—radicals don’t want to back down and wait till 2018 to unseat Maduro. The governmen...

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