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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government Under Pressure, but Can Still Win
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary With most polls showing the opposition more than 30 percentage points ahead of the PSUV, the official party will be hard pressed to win December’s legislative elections. International pressure to free political prisoners and allow observers to monitor the elections is growing. T...

Minimum wage policy in 2015
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

In coming days President Maduro will be announcing the minimum wage increase for May 1, Labor Day. The government’s urgency to regain public support ahead of the elections will lead to stronger and more frequent minimum wage increases this year. Our base case for 2015 is that Maduro will raise mi...

Heads Up: Eulogio del Pino, Pdvsa
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2015

Rumors point to the imminent dismissal of Eulogio del Pino, President of Pdvsa, owing to disagreements with Asdrúbal Chavez, Minister of Petroleum, and/or Carlos Malpica Flores, Finance Director. The news has not been confirmed. Del Pino’s departure from Pdvsa would be bad news. He has managed to...

More controls, distortions and corruption
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Apr 2015

The government again chose the most inefficient, cumbersome, and corruption-prone path to adjustment ahead of the December elections. Cencoex Regulation No 11 (Official Gazette No 40636 dated 04/09/2015) reinforces forex controls and rationing for travel abroad and online purchases using credit c...

White House Sanctions Could Help Maduro
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive SummaryPresident Obama’s executive order targeting Venezuelan officials linked to human rights violations has boosted Maduro’s government in the immediate term. Maduro declared the country at risk of being invaded and stirred support at home and abroad. At home, Maduro now has decree po...

Recession Through 2016
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 17 Mar 2015

Executive Summary This report extends our macroeconomic outlook to 2016. We revise down our 2015 GDP growth forecast to –9.5 percent (from –6.4 percent) and forecast –2.1 growth in 2016. Inflation remains in the triple digits this year and next. The current account balance turns negative (–$14.3 ...

Government Crackdown
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Although the launch of the new Marginal Currency System (Simadi) dominated economic headlines in February, it proved to be much ado about nothing. Despite the economic crisis and approval ratings at a paltry 20 percent, Maduro and his allies have consolidated themselves as chavi...

More of the same
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2015

In a rather disorganized press conference, Finance minister Rodolfo Marco Torres and Central Bank president Nelson Merentes announced the new forex system. They added little to what President Maduro said on January 21. As expected, the 6.30 bolivars per dollar rate applies to food and medicines. ...

Will China Save the Day?
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2015

Executive Summary President Maduro signaled policy continuity in his annual address to the legislature last January 21. We see no signs that severe shortages and spiraling inflation will be tamed and remain as uncertain as we were last month regarding the probability of default. We project net ou...

2014 Inflation: Puzzling Data
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2015

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the household food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas). This data has shown significant correlation with the NCPI food subindex. Acco...

Devaluation 2015: Act Two
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 Jan 2015

Maduro’s announcements on 21 January 2015 devalue the bolivar by morphing the exchange rate regime, keeping multiple exchange rates, forex controls and rationing. Arbitrage and corruption will continue marring the system. President Maduro said this regime is "temporary”. The price of the dollar r...

Devaluation 2015: Act One
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Jan 2015 · 2 responses

After the long suspense caused by President Maduro’s announcements of "a new exchange system", made on December 30, Exchange Agreement 32 circulated on January 5. The delay, added to recent changes in the boards of Pdvsa and Cencoex, suggest that the government’s team disagreed on the foreign exc...

Deep Recession and Large Risks in 2015
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 22 Dec 2014

Executive Summary This report updates our macroeconomic outlook for 2015. In our central scenario, the economy sinks deeper into recession (–6.4 percent) and suffers triple-digit inflation (124.9 percent). Personal consumption slips by 4.2 percent. The current account balance turns negative (–$6....

Election Year Is Coming Up
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Dec 2014

We’re coming up on an election year. National Assembly elections are due in September 2015 but may be brought forward or pushed back by a few months. With oil revenue and public support plunging, the government will have a hard time maintaining its majority. On the other hand, it’s poised to stre...

The U.S. – Cuba Agreement
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Dec 2014

The U.S.-Cuba agreement reconfigures hemispheric relations. It integrates Cuba to world markets and rebuilds the relationship between the U.S. and the rest of Latin America. Hemispheric relationships move closer to a relationship between peers and weaken the image of the U.S. as a colonial threat...

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