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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation Accelerates To 6.5% In November
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Dec 2014

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas).We estimate that the month-on-month National CPI inflation rate accelerated to 6.5 perce...

A Word Worth $20 Billion
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2014

The recent reform of the BCV Law allows the Board of the Bank to include about $20 billion in assets booked as Various Foreign Exchange Assets since July 2014. The Bank has not disclosed details on these assets. Our sources report that this account contains two structured notes written by foreign...

Central Bank Law Reform
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Dec 2014

The BCV Law reform decreed by President Maduro under the aegis of the Enabling Law (Official Gazette No. 6156 Extraordinary, 19 November 2014) is a step back in terms of foreign reserve management and transparency.Article 31 hints that the flow of macroeconomic and financial data published by the...

Pdvsa Bond
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Dec 2014

Last week, the National Superintendency of Securities (SNV) posted on its website that on October 22 Pdvsa was authorized to issue $3 billion in foreign currency bonds by way of a private placement. No further details were disclosed. This approval occurred six days ahead of the Pdvsa 2014 $3 bill...

The new FX law
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2014

The new FX Law was approved by President Maduro on November 13, published in the Official Gazette No. 6150 Extraordinary on November 18, and known to the public on November 28. It repeals the law passed last February (Official Gazette No. 6.126 Extraordinary, 19 February 2014). In our view, the l...

Will Venezuela Honor Its Debt?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Nov 2014

Executive Summary As oil prices continue to slip and an election year approaches, two questions are on everyone’s mind. First, will the government shift its adjustment strategy from one of attrition (import cuts; price, production, and trade controls; harsh punishments; and loose fiscal and monet...

Pure Populism
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Nov 2014

Executive Summary With nationwide mayoral elections weeks away, the government has stepped up its “economic war” against what it calls greedy capitalists, ordering firms to sell products at steep discounts and blaming the private sector for inflation and shortages. President Maduro has vowed to u...

Gasoline price hike on the horizon, again
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Nov 2014 · 4 responses

President Maduro seems to be paving the way towards a gasoline price hike. In his November 13 speech announcing three bills aimed at promoting the communes and supporting the misiones, Maduro placed the topic on the public agenda. He said the price will rise in the right moment (“in the remainder...

Inflation rises to 70 percent in October
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2014

In the absence of BCV inflation data, we continue analyzing inflation using the food basket data published by the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers (Cendas).We estimate that the month-on-month National CPI inflation accelerated to 6.3 percent in...

Minimum wage increase: 15%
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Nov 2014

On November 3, President Nicolas Maduro decreed a 15 percent increase in the minimum wage effective December 1, 2014, within the range we predicted. He also raised the basis for calculating the food bonus to 75 percent of the Tax Unit (UT) from 50 percent, and announced an adjustment in the publi...

Minimum Wage Increase
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Nov 2014

President Maduro will announce a minimum wage increase to enter into effect shortly. This will be the second consecutive year with three minimum wage increases. The government has not commented on the amount of the planned increase. We believe the raise will be between 10 and 18 percent. On the l...

Sliding Oil Prices and Approval Ratings
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Surveys taken between end September and early October show deteriorating support for Nicolás Maduro and his administration. Experts see no chance that these numbers will improve in the short term. Things are looking up for the opposition, which could win a parliamentary majority...

No Adjustment Till 2014
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Our already gloomy outlook on economic policy has darkened over the last month. A relatively pragmatic head of economic policy has been demoted in favor of more traditional chavista policymakers. President Maduro has formally requested special powers to rule by decree. The gover...

Back to Basics
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2014

Executive Summary With $6.4 billion in Venezuelan public debt service payments coming due in the fourth quarter of 2014, $10.0 billion coming due annually between 2015 and 2017, and liquid foreign assets at dangerously low levels, markets are nervous about the possibility of default. This report ...

Foreign Exchange Agreement 30
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Sep 2014 · 1 response

Foreign Exchange Agreement (CC) 30 seeks to increase the bolivar amount that Fonden receives from Pdvsa for the windfall tax stipulated in Decree 8807 (20 February 2013). The contribution is set in dollars and up to 50 percent can be converted in bolivars. Until now, the conversion was done by th...

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