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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Maduro’s Announcements
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Sep 2014

President Maduro’s announcements focus on bureaucratic reorganization, confirming the power of the radical wing of chavismo. The new organization replicates the Cuban hierarchical structure with strong military presence. Both the rhetoric and appointments ratify the political-social model of cont...

What’s Maduro’s Plan?
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2014

Executive Summary To say that there’s a “Nicolas Maduro Plan” for the economy is an overstatement. Moreover, insofar as one does exist, we think little of it will be implemented beyond gasoline price hikes. It’s hard to describe the “Maduro Plan” because the government is trying to avoid the impr...

Ritornello
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Aug 2014

Ritornello: A recurrent musical section that alternates with different episodes of contrasting material. The repetition can be exact or varied to a greater or lesser extent. Encyclopedia Britannica. Here we are, writing about the exchange rate again. A window of opportunity for reform of the fore...

Maduro Courts His Base
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Nicolás Maduro and his government are trying to control chavismo’s political levers to shape their own power structures and obtain support to carry out partial economic reforms. We don’t know whether he will succeed. The chavista base is unhappy. And the III PSUV Congress, conve...

Bounded Power and Modest Reforms
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 21 Jul 2014

Executive Summary This report extends our forecast horizon to 2016. Our previous outlook expected Maduro’s administration to carry out limited actions and reforms in 2014 that would help the economy begin to recover from stagflation some time in 2015. Instead, government inaction and poor executi...

Gradual Convergence
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2014

Executive Summary Tensions within chavismo on the eve of the III PSUV Congress are surfacing against a backdrop of widespread social discontent owing to economic hardship. One poll finds that household sentiment is at its lowest since 2003. With Giordani’s exit and signs of a reformist movement w...

What To Expect in the Post-Giordani Era
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2014

Jorge Giordani’s departure was a decision made by the powers that be. The letter he published in the chavista website Aporrea [1] was the means he chose to expose the discomfort and the ins and outs of the government’s decision making process. These events strengthen Nicolás Maduro and the reform...

Rodolfo Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani on the BCV board
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

Today, 10 June 2014, the Official Gazette reports the appointment of Rodolfo Marco Torres, minister of Finance, as member of the board of the BCV as member of the Cabinet. Marco Torres replaces Jorge Giordani, who was a member of the board throughout his tenure as minister of Planning. (According...

Inaction Speaks Louder than Words
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2014

Executive Summary The two dialogue processes that began in April are stuck. The government has made clear that it doesn’t intend to make a single concession to the opposition and that its promises to the business sector are mere words. The government has no incentive to make meaningful political ...

Better Than Nothing
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The government and opposition moderates have sat down to negotiate an end to the street protests and violence. The process is fragile and may be abandoned at any moment. The opposition is divided—radicals don’t want to back down and wait till 2018 to unseat Maduro. The governmen...

Devaluation, Step by Step
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Fourteen months of slow reforms have shaped the forex regime that will, in our view, be in place until after the 2015 legislative elections. The system is based on three official exchange rates: the 6.30 bolivars per dollar Cadivi/Cencoex rate, Sicad and Sicad II. The government...

Buying Time
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Two months of protests have left dozens dead, hundreds injured, over 1,800 arrested, assets damaged, and daily life disrupted. Government repression has been severe. Constitutional violations have set dangerous precedents. This turmoil has hurt the government’s image abroad but ...

CORRECTED - Sicad II started at last. No surprises.
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2014

In line with Rafael Ramírez’s unofficial announcements, the average price of the dollar in Sicad II in its first day of operations was 51.86 Bs/$, as BCV reported at 6:00 PM. No information was given on trading volume. However, we believe volume today was low. Participants and banks have had litt...

Sicad II: Relief, No Solution
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2014

Sicad II will begin operating soon under Foreign Exchange Agreement (CC) 27[1]. Individuals and companies will be able to buy and sell foreign currency and dollar-denominated securities at a price that will reflect market conditions and, more importantly, intervention by BCV and Pdvsa. Sicad II w...

Stagflation But No Blow-out
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 13 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Our 2014–2015 central scenarios assume that stagflation leads to social conflict. We expect episodes of turbulence but no widespread blow-out. Inflation accelerates, economic activity weakens, real consumption falls, and oil production is stagnant or slightly down. GDP falls by ...

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