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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Credit, economic activity and monetary policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jul 2018

The economic recovery will be slower than foreseen before the truckers’ strike in May, both because of its direct effects (temporary paralysis of transport and part of manufacturing activity) and indirect ones (worsening of sentiment and financial conditions). This, along with anchored inflation ...

A scenario filled with uncertainties and undergoing intense mutation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 25 Jun 2018 · 1 response

With the United States in full employment, growing faster than the potential and with an expansionary fiscal policy, the dollar has been appreciating, inverting the international conditions that were favorable to emerging countries. Brazil does not have a balance of payments problem, but it does ...

COPOM’s correct decision
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2018

Despite the upward shift and steeper slope of the yield curve, the Central Bank’s decision to keep the SELIC rate at 6.5% did not cause any negative reaction from economists, who almost unanimously anticipated this action. The appreciation of the dollar has caused the real to depreciate, a reacti...

Change in the international scenario and increased risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2018

The international scenario has changed. The current cycle is marked by appreciation of the dollar and reduced flow of capital to emerging countries, which to a greater or lesser degree has weakened their currencies and raised the quotations of their CDS. The countries with balance of payments iss...

Economic activity: A new frustration of expectations
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2018

After the weak GDP result for the first quarter, some signs of better performance emerged in April. Unfortunately, however, even before the truckers’ strike (which put paid to any expectations of faster recovery), those signs were already changing for the worse, making the diagnosis even clearer ...

Last week’s storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2018

What was the cause of the storm that beset the Brazilian market last week? There was no single cause, but rather a series of causes. One was the abrupt, but not unexpected, end of an external bonanza period, characterized by low international interest rates and an abundance of foreign capital flo...

Snapshot of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

Brazil faces no problems of financing the balance of payments, nor is it involved in any geopolitical conflicts or trade embargos. What puts it in the group of nations experiencing the greatest depreciations is its fiscal/political risk.

A mediocre recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Jun 2018

In the first quarter of 2018, GDP grew by only 0.4%, and it only takes a quick glance at the behavior of the most important components on the aggregate supply and demand sides to conclude that even without considering the effects of the truckers’ strike, growth in 2018 will be significantly less ...

The truckers’ strike
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 May 2018 · 1 response

​As if the shift in the international scenario were not enough, marked by appreciation of the dollar leading to relative depreciation of emerging countries’ currencies, Brazil has now been hit by a trucker strike, with severe repercussions on the economy and politics. The international price of o...

Much ado about nothing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 May 2018

Until recently the low interest rates in the United States and other mature countries – and the other side of the same coin, the low risk aversion – were causing demand for the assets of emerging countries to climb, strengthening their currencies and reducing the quotations of their CDS. However,...

The end of the cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 May 2018 · 2 responses

Whether the Central Bank will cut the SELIC rate by 25 basis points at the next COPOM meeting or not will only be known next Wednesday. But in either case, that meeting will mark the end of the current easing cycle. The deprecation of exchange rate last week was in large part (although not totall...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2018 · 1 response

The probability of a presidential candidate from the center, with a reform agenda, being elected in October is unknown, aggravating the uncertainty resulting from the perception of a change in the external scenario. Nothing indicates this situation will change until mid-year. Recent economic indi...

Changing in the external scenario: Are there any consequences for Brazil?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2018

With the American economy running at full employment (the jobless rate is below the NAIRU) and the government following an expansionary fiscal policy (reduction of the corporate income tax approved by Congress), the tendency is for the dollar to get stronger, not weaker as President Trump wants. ...

Deceleration of growth and political uncertainty
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The real interest rates (both the current SELIC and 12-month ahead) are below the neutral level, but the Brazilian economy has still only been recovering fitfully. There are no inflationary risks on the horizon, and the main reason is this slow recovery of economic activity. With a high degree of...

Worrying signs: The weakness of the labor market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2018 · 2 responses

When we revised our projection for GDP growth in 2018 to 2.2%, we assumed that expansion of household consumption, although less intensely, would lead to that result, and stressed that the performance of the job market was fundamental for that projection. The most recent data, however, trigger a ...

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