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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic activity recovering more strongly
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2018

In the past several weeks, evidence has been mounting of better conditions for investment growth. These include improved financial conditions, signs of business credit recovery, and a significant drop in the stock of unsold new residential units. The sum of these factors opens room for faster gro...

Favorable international scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2018

The causes of Brazil’s fiscal crisis and weak economic growth are exclusively domestic. Only structural reforms can avoid further unsustainable growth of the public debt and maintain the rising confidence and low real interest rates. While waiting for these reforms, however, the Brazilian economy...

The fiscal challenge
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2018

The recession is over and the next challenges facing the country are to achieve reforms in two areas: fiscal control and productivity growth. In this report we reiterate the magnitude of the fiscal challenge in the medium term. The problem of the debt dynamic will not be resolved only with approv...

Monetary and fiscal policy: What corrections are necessary?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jan 2018

​While monetary policy is being rewarded by the sharp fall of inflation and clear anchoring of expectations, allowing the interest rate to be reduced to a level that stimulates economic recovery, the perspectives for fiscal policy are alarming. Granted, advances have been made, such as approval o...

The resumption of investments: At what pace?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jan 2018

There are no longer any doubts that Brazil’s economy is recovering, and that its driving force, on the aggregate demand side, is household consumption. Although fixed capital investments grew in the third quarter of 2017 after a long sequence of declines, there are no indications yet of anything ...

What is the outlook for growth after the cyclical recovery?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Dec 2017

Brazil is emerging from a long and deep recession, and for some time the monetary stimulus from low real interest rates will produce growth of actual GDP greater than potential growth. But what will happen afterwards? In this report we quantify the contributions of the sources of potential GDP gr...

Paradoxes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Dec 2017

For Brazil to grow sustainably, many reforms are necessary, not only to assure a solid fiscal adjustment – as is the case of the pension reform – but also to stimulate investments and boost labor productivity. The task is daunting and will take years. The current government has taken some importa...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2017

The fragility of the Temer administration is demonstrated by the obstacles it faces in obtaining approval of the pension reform, undermining the chances of victory of a candidate drawn from the current governing coalition in next year’s presidential race. This situation is reason for high anxiety...

Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2017

The Central Bank cut the interest rate by 50 basis points to 7% at the last COPOM meeting of 2017, and signaled a residual reduction at the start of next year. The inflationary picture remains very benign, strengthening our belief that the interest rate will not be raised in 2018. The communiq...

Economic Recovery alongside High Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 04 Dec 2017

The most positive point of economic policy execution is the conduction of monetary policy fighting off inflation. The SELIC rate should close 2017 at 7% a year and remain at that level throughout 2018. With this, the ex-ante real interest rate for one year will remain near 3%, below the neutral r...

GDP in the Third Quarter and the Indications for 2018
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Dec 2017

The GDP data for the third quarter showed both continuity and more general recovery of the economy. Besides expansion of GDP for three straight quarters, the results for the first six months were revised upward, suggesting stronger growth for 2017 as a whole, of about 1%. Our projections are that...

External Sector
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Nov 2017

After a sequence of 10 years running current account deficits, small surpluses have started to appear (based on seasonally adjusted monthly numbers). The most intense movement is in the trade balance, whose strong surpluses are a consequence of the decrease of imports provoked by the extremely lo...

Recovery of Activity a Step at a Time
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2017

It has long been known that economic cycles are not like cycles in physic. No two economic cycles are alike, much less are the trajectories deterministic. Instead, the forces that determine the dynamics of a given episode can be less important in another, in which new forces also emerge. There ar...

Inflation: Headed to the Target with Expectations Anchored
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

The 12-month IPCA in October grew for the second straight month, but still remains under the lower limit of the target interval. However, not only does the yield curve have a large positive slope, the slope has risen in the past few weeks. We insist that this behavior is not the consequence of an...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Nov 2017

President Temer has managed to forestall three attempted investigations of corruption: one in the Superior Electoral Tribunal and two in the Chamber of Deputies. To achieve this, he has spent a relevant part of his scant political capital, condemning the country to 11 months of agony until the ne...

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