Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ELECTIONS OUTLOOK...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Disinflation, Uncertainty and Falling Interest Rates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jun 2017

Inflation is decelerating further still, and the signs indicate it will be significantly below the target at year-end. Because of the huge slack in the production factors and anchored inflation expectations, there is room for the Central Bank to continue its easing cycle. However, the Central Ban...

The Political Crisis and the Economic Picture
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2017

With a large negative GDP gap and falling inflation, the interest rate will continue to fall, but the Central Bank has already indicated that due to the uncertainties, the next cuts will be smaller. Our projections before the crisis were that the SELIC rate would reach 8% at the end of 2017 and s...

GDP in the First Quarter
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2017

After two years of contraction, GDP expanded strongly in the first quarter of 2017, at an annualized rate of 4.3%. But the details of this growth show that the improvement was more apparent than real. First, the result was almost totally due to the performance of agriculture, whose output grew by...

The Political Crisis and the Economic Scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2017

The merely mild reaction of asset prices to a political crisis as severe as the present one is a puzzle. Of course, market agents are understandably hesitant to bet against a competent economic team that has instruments to intervene in the markets. But in the middle of last week, without any acti...

Political Crisis and Asset Prices
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 May 2017

From looking only at the reflections of past crises on asset prices, it was tempting to predict that the current political crisis – which has seriously eroded the governability of President Temer – would trigger much stronger oscillations in asset prices than have occurred. We believe the relativ...

Short Term Consequences of the Political Crisis
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 May 2017

Last week started with an increase of optimism. The probability of approval of the social security reform looked better and asset prices began a new round of appreciation. These factors, together with the weak economic activity and falling inflation, led to stronger bets on a steeper decline of t...

Weak Activity, Falling Inflation and Strong Monetary Easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 May 2017 · 1 response

For several months we have been presenting arguments that based on the severity of the recession and the absence of factors to hasten reduction of the negative GDP gap, the correct reaction of the Central Bank is to cut the interest rate more aggressively. The data published in the past two weeks...

What is the Current Stage of the Economic Cycle?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 May 2017

When the economy enters a steep recession, like in 2015, all the indicators decline at the same time, but when the GDP ceases to decline, some sectors and products start growing again while others only show stability or even continuing contraction. All signs are that the cycle of shrinking GDP ha...

Economic Activity: Has Any Monetary Policy Signal Changed?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 May 2017

What really matters for the Central Bank to maintain the strong monetary easing cycle? One condition is approval of a pension reform that consolidates the picture of lower risks, preventing the exchange rate from depreciating. However, both the size of the cycle and the magnitude of the next cuts...

Inflation Continues Falling
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Apr 2017

For the first time since January 2010, inflation accumulated over the preceding 12 months is now below the target, and all signs are that the deceleration process will continue in the coming months. The recession is nearing its end, but the tendency will be for very slow recovery. This, along wit...

What’s Happening With Real Retail Sales?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2017

In February, the IBGE (national statistics office) estimates that real retail sales took a large step upward, but clarifies that this is due to a methodological revision, which is done periodically. Apparently, the increase cannot be interpreted as a trend change, but rather only a once and for a...

Stronger Exchange Rate, Lower Inflation and Renewed Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017

If Brazil had an economy open to trade and its firms were indebted in local currency, deprecation of the exchange rate during a recession would stimulate demand and expand GDP. But Brazil’s economy is closed to international trade, and its companies, besides being highly leveraged, have a large p...

The Slow Recovery of the Construction Sector
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Apr 2017

Signs are slowly starting to appear that the country is emerging from the longest and deepest recession in the past 35 years. However, the recovery will be slow, and one of the main reasons for this forecast is the deleveraging process of firms and households. The civil construction sector is emb...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2017

Temer tested the thin ice on which his government rests and nearly provoked a disaster by excluding state and municipal governments from the social security reform proposal. Perhaps to avoid, with the complacency of governors, state civil servants from protesting in the visitors’ galleries of Con...

Meeting the Fiscal Target and Signals from Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2017

Last week the Finance Ministry announced measures to guarantee compliance with the primary deficit target in 2017; the National Monetary Council (CMN) disclosed new rules for loans from the BNDES; and the Central Bank published the latest Inflation Report, updating the projections for 2017 and 20...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.