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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Recent Exchange Rate Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2015

During March the real reached R$ 3.30/US$, since when it has been appreciating, with a slight reduction in volatility. This movement is not unique to Brazil’s currency, indicating that part of the reason for the recent strengthening is external factors. But these elements have been accompanied by...

The Labor Market: New Trends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2015

After several years of unemployment rates near historical lows along with rising real wages, the Brazilian labor market has started to show clear signs of weakening. The recent uptick in joblessness is a consequence of the sharp economic deceleration, and has been accompanied by smaller wage incr...

The Problem is Economic, but the Solution is Political
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The primary surplus targets of 1.2% of GDP for 2015 and 2% for 2016 are welcome, but will only lead to a drop in the debt/GDP ratio if microeconomic reforms are carried out that boost economic growth and create conditions for a decline in the real interest rate. S&P has given...

GDP in 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2015

GDP grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, or an annualized rate of 1.3% (Graph 1). For the year as a whole, growth was only 0.1%, far short of the 2.7% figure in 2013. All sectors of the Brazilian economy performed worse in 2014 than in 2013, clearly showing the economy’s loss of dynamism. ...

What’s Been Happening with the Exchange Rate Pass-through to Inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Mar 2015

Nobody doubts that inflation this year will be very high, with the consensus projections now approaching 8%, even with the expectation that the deceleration of economic activity (already starting to be reflected in the unemployment rate) will reduce real wages and slow growth of service prices.

The Labor Market as Reflected by the Monthly Version of the National Household Survey (PNAD)
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2015

In various previous reports we measured the labor market situation using data from the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), which is restricted to six metropolitan regions. The other source of job market data produced by the IBGE is the National Household Survey (PNAD), which now has a monthly versio...

Unemployment and Labor Income in the Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2015

Executive Summary In this work we discuss the reflections of the expected contraction of GDP em 2015 on the unemployment rate and labor income. In the exercise, we assume that GDP will contract by at least 0.5% and at most 1.5%. The projections are based on data from the Monthly Employment ...

Forces Weakening the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2015

Nobody who uses two elements – the Brazilian current account deficit and the change in the international scenario, marked by appreciation of the dollar and decline of commodity prices – could have doubts that Brazil has entered a currency depreciation cycle. But these two forces together are insu...

Declining Confidence Indicates Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2015

The confidence indexes produced by FGV have a proven track record of pointing to economic trends. And all of them indicate a new round of deceleration. We start with the consumer confidence index (Graph 1), which has been falling since the second half of 2012, and more steeply since the middle...

The Recession of 2015 and the Lessons of 1999 and 2003
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The growth of the Brazilian economy started to decline in 2010, and disappeared totally in 2014, a year of stagnation. Diagnostic errors and unwitting experiments in conducting economic policy explain that performance. To reverse this situation – and preserve the country’s in...

2015: Recession, High Inflation and Political Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 19 Feb 2015

Executive Summary There has been a change in the economic policy bearings, starting with a fiscal adjustment and correction of administered prices. But the positive results will not appear in 2015. In the next 12 months the forecasts point to: a) a recession, with a 1% dip in GDP, along wit...

How Severe Will the Recession Be?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Feb 2015

Despite the option for a gradual fiscal adjustment to save economic activity from an intense contraction, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Brazil is not only facing a recession in the coming months, but rather negative GDP growth for the entire year. This conclusion holds even without includ...

The Size of the Fiscal Disaster in 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2015

Few observers had any doubts that the fiscal policy put into practice by former finance minister Mantega would leave a disastrous legacy. The publication of the numbers for 2014 last week allows assessing the problem’s magnitude. From January through December 2014, the central government had a pr...

Under New Management
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

Executive Summary The resounding failure of the economic policy practiced between 2011 and 2014 culminated in the replacement of Guido Mantega by Joaquim Levy as finance minister, and prompted an about-face in economic policy. The diagnosis has changed and the new macroeconomic policy orientat...

Where is the Real Headed?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2015

In the past several days the real has appreciated, interrupting a lengthy period of gradual weakening. At the start of the year, the exchange rate was fluctuating in the neighborhood of R$ 2.70/US$, but recently it has gotten stronger, closing last week at R$2.58/US$. The real is one of the curre...

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