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Despondent Outlook for the World Economy and the Reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2014

There is a climate of despondency in the global economy. Political disturbances have been heightening investors’ risk aversion, triggering a decline in the quotations of 10-year Treasuries. Along with this, concerns have been growing over the risks of deceleration of the international economy. Th...

The Brazilian Economy at a Crossroads
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The new government, whichever candidate wins the presidential runoff, will have to face at least four challenges: a) renewed growth; b) fiscal control; c) reduction of the current account deficit, allowing the real to depreciate; and d) control of inflation. Achieving all the...

Brazil in the Global Context: IMF View in the Most Recent WEO
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2014

Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published the most recent edition of the World Economic Outlook, with revised forecasts for economic growth of various countries (Table 1). World GDP should expand by 3.3% in 2014 (a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point), with growth of 1.8% in...

Industrial Production: The Appearances are Misleading
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2014

At first glance, it appears that by growing 0.7% in August, repeating the expansion measured in July, that industrial production has finally started to recover. However, appearances can be deceiving. First of all, the recent improvement is exclusively due to growth in the mineral extraction indus...

Fiscal Policy: A Picture Without Retouches
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The primary surplus target of 1.9% of GDP in 2014 will not be met. This comes as no surprise. The surprise comes from the fact that the distance between the “official” target and what is actually achieved will be greater than previously estimated, revealing the magnitude of t...

Reversal of Unemployment and Caution in the Credit Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2014

For an extended period the unemployment rate measured by the Monthly Employment Survey (PME, covering six metropolitan regions) was only moving in one direction – downward. However, the most recent data indicate a reversal. The participation rate appears to have stopped falling, contributing to a...

The Labor Market According to the PNAD
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2014

Executive Summary The country remains mired in a situation of low growth and high inflation, even with contention of important administered prices and a current account deficit of US$ 80 billion over the preceding 12 months. In parallel, there are contrary signs from the labor market: unemploy...

Inflation and the Exchange Rate Movements: What Are the Trends?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2014

The IPCA-15 in September came as a surprise at 0.39%, a slightly higher rate than the consensus projections and greater than the IPCA for August, which was 0.25%. This brought the IPCA over the past 12 months to 6.62%, versus 6.5% in July, with tradables accumulating an increase of 6.9% in 12 mon...

Activity: Far From a Sustained Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Sep 2014

The proxy for GDP estimated by the Central Bank (IBC-Br) for July rose by 1.5% in relation to June (Graph 1). This was an impressive result, leaving a carry-over of 0.3% to the third quarter. At first glance this might suggest an inflection point in the economic activity trend line. However, this...

What is the Trend of the IPCA?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2014

In August inflation measured by the IPCA once again was slightly above the target interval, at 6.51%. In previous months, however, the monthly variations of the IPCA had been lower than at the start of the year. This was partly due to favorable seasonal factors and partly due to the decline in fo...

GDP in the Second Quarter: Worse than Expected
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2014

Second-quarter GDP fell by 0.6%. This decline not only exceeded the median of expectations, there also were downward revisions of the seasonally adjusted data for the first quarter of 2014 and third of 2013. Instead of expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter this year, the revised figures show a f...

Employment and Indebtedness Frustrating Recovery of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2014

In an election year, the government is worried about the ongoing deceleration of the Brazilian economy. On August 28th, the IBGE will release the GDP figures for the second quarter of 2014, and besides possible contraction in relation to the first quarter, the numbers should show a sharp reductio...

On The Verge of Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2014

In June, the IBC-Br, which is a proxy for monthly GDP calculated by the Central Bank, fell 1.5%. With this, the decline in the second quarter was 1.2%, and this is a good estimate of what the GDP figures will show for the quarter (Graph 1). Worse than the magnitude of the drop are its characteris...

Credit: The Supply and Demand Signs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2014

Credit plays an important role in economic growth. Most companies that have projects to raise productive capacity, contributing to growth, have to find some type of financing. Individuals also benefit from credit by the ability to consume in advance of earning, especially regarding durables. Vari...

Two Opposite Pictures: Asset Prices and the Real Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Aug 2014

Executive Summary In the midst of economic performance that can be characterized as stagflation, asset prices have recently been appreciating. The Ibovespa has risen more than the stock market indexes of other emerging markets, and has far outpaced the S&P-500 in recent weeks. Simultaneously, ...

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