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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The First Package: “Much Ado About Nothing”.
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Last week, measures were announced aiming to reduce the primary deficit in 2023 (summarized in Table 1). The largest part of the adjustment falls on the revenue side, based on revenues’ reestimation and increase, along with some temporary spending cuts. However, given the nature of Brazil’s fisca...

What Will the New Fiscal Framework Be?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jan 2023

We began 2023 knowing that the approval of the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) on the transition has made it possible to alter the spending cap by enacting a complementary law, and that the execution of the budget in 2023 will lead to a deficit of R$ 230 billion, putting the public debt b...

Monetary Policy Challenges In 2023: Global and Brazilian Economies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Dec 2022

By causing a succession of supply shocks, the pandemic raised inflation around the world. Indeed, virtually all countries reacted to the economic effects of the health crisis with huge monetary and fiscal stimulus policies, causing high inflation whose control now requires both a return to fiscal...

Webinar replay: Monetary policy balancing act: Brazil, Chile, Hungary, and Turkey
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2022

Four countries ⁠— Brazil, Chile, Hungary, and Turkey ⁠— exhibit the full range of dilemmas faced by central banks in emerging markets. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our analysts as they discuss how these countries will navigate their monetary policy challenges going into 2023 in ...

Projections for 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Dec 2022

Before presenting the projections for 2023 (there’s no way to estimate numbers for 2024 with any security), we express two caveats. First, the GDP gap is still significantly positive (with the unemployment rate below the NAIRU), and this might require keeping the SELIC rate at 13.75% throughout 2...

GDP is Decelerating, but the Labor Market Indicates a Narrow or Positive Gap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The GDP result for the third quarter confirmed what was suggested by other indicators: the deceleration of growth is under way. After a brief analysis of the contributions of the forces acting on the supply and demand sides, and the signs sent by other indicators, we focus here on the evidence fr...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2022

Four weeks after the runoff election, in the midst of serious uncertainties, some hints have emerged of what can be expected of the new government. An important one is that the PT has changed very little with the passage of time. Lula continues to centralize decisions in his hands, which deters t...

A Disastrous Proposal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2022

With a public debt that is too big for a developing country and with a real interest rate higher than the economic growth rate, Brazil needs to generate primary surpluses sufficiently large to reduce the debt/GDP ratio to avoid losing control of inflation and hampering economic growth. However, e...

Growth with Fiscal Discipline Against a Backdrop of a Weak Global Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2022

Just like in his first term, starting in 2003, the results of Lula’s term beginning in 2023 will depend on two conditions: a) the behavior of the international economy; and b) overcoming the challenge imposed by the fiscal situation. The main differences are that in 2003, the international econom...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2022

Lula’s victory in the second round, with 50.9% of the valid votes, a difference of only 2.1 million votes, reveals a deeply divided nation. Lula won in the Northeast and Bolsonaro prevailed in the other four regions. The majority of governors elected or reelected come from the opposition, includi...

Monetary Policy, Inflation and Effects on Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Oct 2022

At its last meeting, the COPOM kept the SELIC rate at 13.75% a year. In the communiqué about this decision, the committee members repeated the alerts expressed after the meeting in September, regarding the uncertainties over the fiscal framework, the high likelihood that the output gap was narrow...

Monetary Policy, Public Debt and World Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Oct 2022

In 2023, global growth will decelerate substantially, with many countries suffering recessions, especially in Europe. That outcome will be a consequence of the inevitable course corrections in the expansionary policies – monetary and fiscal – used in reaction to the pandemic. In the first part of...

Declining World Growth and The Reflections in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

More important than the magnitude of the decline in the IMF’s new projections for global growth in 2023 is the warning, loud and clear, that “although many countries may not be in a recession, they will feel as if they were in recession”. Not since the crisis of 2008 has there been such generaliz...

Capital Outflows, Global Risk and Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Oct 2022

The Central Bank has finally updated the statistics on currency flows and balance of payments, allowing two important findings. First, there is more than US$ 60 billion in export revenues left abroad, due to exporters’ preferring to invest money abroad rather than repatriate it. Second, over the ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Oct 2022

ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL, GLOBAL DECELERATION AND A SEEMINGLY INTRACTABLE WAR – Despite the campaign urging protest votes in favor of Lula, the result of 48.4% for Lula and 43.2% for Bolsonaro provided definition of the second round, on October 30th. The votes for Simone Tebet (4.2%) and Ciro Gomes (3...

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