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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Loosening of the Commitment to the Inflation Target and Risk of Recession in 2023
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jun 2022

In making the projections that follow, we had to overcome several obstacles. The first was the “data blackout” caused by the strike of the Central Bank’s staff. The second was the explicit manifestation of populism by which the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and Senate have colluded with P...

An Example of Explicit Populism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jun 2022

It is not unreasonable for a government, despite fragile fiscal fundamentals, to increase spending on income transfers in favor of the people most affected by a shock like the pandemic. However, populist measures that allocate scarce resources with the objective of temporarily raising the preside...

Strong growth for the time being, but…
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jun 2022

Impelled by the increase of demand coming from net exports and income transfer programs, GDP in the first quarter of 2022 expanded by 1%, and various confidence indicators point to further growth in the second quarter. Although due to the carry-over, growth in 2022 should exceed our previous proj...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 May 2022

As the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, it is evident that its costs and risks are affecting not only those on the battlefields, but the entire world. Since the start of the war, the international price of wheat has risen by more than 40% and of corn by nearly 3...

Stronger Expansion of GDP in Brazil and External Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 May 2022

Our estimate is that Brazil’s GDP in the first quarter grew by almost 1.3% (1.5% is the estimate of the GDP Monitor of FGV). With this, the chances are greater that the economy will expand by more than 1% in 2022. The objective of this Report is to analyze the external risks facing Brazil in the ...

The Fiscal Risk and The Behavior Of The Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 May 2022

In this Report, we evaluate the behavior of the Real after the pandemic. To explain the discrepancy between its behavior and that of the currencies of most other countries, we apply a model that, with proper consideration of the various structural breaks, quantitatively evaluates the effects of t...

Stronger Growth and Higher Inflation: The Central Bank’s Reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 May 2022

Both because Brazilian growth benefits from higher international commodity prices and because the government has been using fiscal and credit stimulus policies to expand demand, economic activity began the year on the upswing. The most recent data indicate that growth in the first quarter was 1.3...

Projections for 2022: Stronger Growth and Higher Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 May 2022

It is part of economists’ fate to periodically adjust their projections. In 2022, the Brazilian economy should grow by around 1%, surpassing the previous estimate of 0.7% from the last Focus report (04/29/2022). However, considering that at the end of 2021, the country’s income per capita was mor...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 May 2022

As the war caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its third month, the hopes of a peace agreement in the near future are fading. The countries that had assumed the role of interlocutors, such as Israel and Turkey, have begun supporting the supply of weapons to Ukraine, and even Germany,...

The Projections of the IMF for the World and Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Apr 2022

The last World Economic Outlook confirmed what was expected, a weaker growth projection (in relation to that of January) for the world economy in 2022. It is increasingly clear that additional deceleration is in store for the United States due to a more intense shift of monetary policy to restric...

The Central Bank and The Red Queen Syndrome
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2022

With the one-year ex ante real interest rate at (or slightly above) 7%, nobody can accuse the Central Bank of being lenient with inflation. However, it is necessary to recognize that as of the start of the pandemic, the Bank has been behind the curve, allowing expectations to become unanchored. T...

Exchange Rate, Fiscal Fundamentals and Fiscal Results
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2022

The strongly rising inflation casts doubt on whether the SELIC rate of 12.75% for an extended period will be sufficient to bring inflation to the target in 2023. If the exchange rate continues to strengthen, it can help achieve this goal somewhat. In this report, we analyze what has been happenin...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Apr 2022

After 40 days, the war provoked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, “forecast” by Putin to last only a few days, has left a trail of atrocities committed by the invaders. The heroic resistance of the Ukrainian army and civilians, with the support of Western countries, has managed to contain the R...

Commodity Prices, Terms of Trade and the Real Exchange Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Mar 2022

In 2019, Brazil’s current account deficit was US$65 billion, while in 2021 it reached only US$24.5 billion. Our projections for 2022 indicate there should be a small surplus. The greatest contribution to this result will come from the balance of trade, whose surplus will benefit from the rising i...

Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2022

In response to the two shocks caused by the Russia-Ukraine war – oil prices and food prices – the Central Bank raised the SELIC rate by one percentage point at the last COPOM meeting, and announced that a new increase of the same magnitude is impending at the next meeting, which would put the rat...

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