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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged despite mounting pressures
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Sep 2018

​The SA Reserve Bank has announced that it is keeping the benchmark interest rate, the repo, unchanged at 6.5% - so the prime interest rate stays put at 10%. The Bank has changed the repo rate only once so far in the current year, when it cut the rate by 25 basis points amid the then markedly dec...

South Africa’s current account deficit contracts, providing some relief from piling negative economic trends
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2018

The South African trade balance switched from a deficit of R15.2 billion in the first quarter of 2018 to a surplus of R41.9 billion in the second quarter. On the other hand, the shortfall on the services, income and current transfer account widened slightly from R204.2 billion in the first quarte...

South Africa’s fears realized – the economy is in a recession
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Sep 2018

South Africa waited in anticipation to find out if the economy had somehow managed to grow positively or had contracted during the second quarter of 2018. This is because GDP growth recorded negative 2.6% q/q (saar) in the first quarter of the year, and another contraction would place the South A...

Land Trumps SA Political Economy Concerns
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Aug 2018 · 1 response

Understandably, the issue of land expropriation without compensation is a big prevailing debate in the country, it has been since December 2017 when the ANC Elective Congress resolved to consider land distribution without expropriation. This then led to a Parliamentary Vote, proposed by the EFF a...

The South African exchange rate’s tumultuous ride
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 15 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The rand has been taking a hammering, particularly since the past week, and has also been very volatile of late. The South African exchange rate had appreciated significantly since around the time when the now-President Ramaphosa first claimed victory to become the leader of the governing ANC, an...

South African Political Economy Temperature Rising
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

Structural and cyclical factors have combined to make the SA political economy scene in the country dynamic, robust and often times confusing. President Ramaphosa, meanwhile, keeps committed to his vision of reviving ethical leadership, reigniting the country’s self-image of ‘unity in diversity’,...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Jul 2018

The Reserve Bank today decided to leave the country’s benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5%, which means the prime interest rate also remains at 10%. Yesterday we reported that CPI inflation accelerated from 4.4% y/y in May 2018 to 4.6% y/y in June largely due to inflationary pressures fr...

Will fading Ramaphoria compromise South Africa’s growth recovery?
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Jul 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s growth: Real GDP contracted markedly in the first quarter of 2018 following a surprise 3.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2017 and GDP growth above 2% for three consecutive quarters (since quarter 2 2017). Although there was a marked improvement in th...

A weakening of South Africa’s terms of trade results in a significant deterioration of the current account in the first quarter of 2018
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Jun 2018

There was a marked widening of the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments, from 2.9% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 4.8% of GDP in the first quarter of 2018. This was largely due to the deterioration of the trade account during the period; South Africa’s trade balance ...

Reviving the economy alongside institutional reform
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

South Africa’s economic growth surprised on the upside during in 4Q 2017, with rising confidence expected to boost investment. But the country faces some chronic and difficult political economy challenges at present.

South Africa’s GDP starts off another year with a contraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Jun 2018

​Just as we had anticipated and communicated in our previous report, South Africa’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of 2018. The annualized percentage change in the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP came in at -2.2% in the first quarter, following 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Besides t...

Interest rate cuts aborted as pressure on inflation mounts
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 May 2018

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank today voted to keep the bench mark interest rate at 6.5%. This was following its decision to cut rates by 25 basis points in March 2018 (their second rate cut since a succession of increases since January 2014). This means the ...

President Ramaphosa's first100 Days in office: South Africa's new dawn, Zuma legacy and the forceful gravity of historic challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 May 2018

President Ramaphosa's first 100 days in office are drawing to an end. He has promised a new dawn for the country's democracy, an ethical revival for the ANC, and a restart for the sluggish economy. On all these fronts, he is bogged down by some or other legacy challenges. The country's democratic...

It turns out 2017 wasn’t so bad after all for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 20 Apr 2018

Summary and Assumptions • South Africa’s Growth: GDP growth for 2017 as a whole came in at 1.3%, following the trough of 0.6% in 2016. Seasonally adjusted GDP in the last quarter of 2017 increased by 3.1%, and this was the third consecutive positive quarterly growth rate following the second and...

A timely interest rate cut by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Mar 2018

Following a single 25-basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate in 2017 (during the Monetary Policy committee MPC’s July meeting), the South African Reserve Bank has decided to reduce the repo rate for the first time in 2018 by another 25 basis points. This places the repo rate at 6.5% and t...

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