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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Moody's priceless gift to President Ramaphosa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2018

As I speculated in my last Note a week ago, yesterday Moody's kept South Africa's global credit rating at investment grade, and importantly changed its outlook from "negative" to "stable". I beleive , all considered, this is a jusified assessment. More imprtantly, however, this is a priceless gif...

More positive economic metrics out of South Africa as the deficit on the current account narrows to 2.5% of GDP in 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Mar 2018

Following the notable widening in the seasonally adjusted and annualized trade surplus to R92 billion during the third quarter of 2017, the trade balance narrowed to (a still substantial) R74 billion in the last quarter of 2017 as reported by the SA Reserve Bank. This was a result of a more prono...

South Africa's credit rating on the mend
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 14 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Quarter One of 2018 has been a turning point for South Africa's political economy outlook. Despite all predictions to the contrary, Jacob Zuma is no longer the president, and the shift to President Ramaphosa has been relatively smooth. The cloud of desperation has been replaced by newly found opt...

South African GDP growth, similar to politics, ends 2017 on a positive note
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2018

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, GDP in the last quarter of 2017 increased by 3.1%. This was the third consecutive positive quarterly growth rate following the upwardly adjusted second quarter 2.9% (previously 2.8%) and third quarter 2.3% (previously 2.0%). Even ...

President Ramaphosa’s fiscal headache or a chance to start proving himself...?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Feb 2018 · 1 response

New South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has inherited a fiscus that is in a dire state. For instance, National Treasury announced a projected tax revenue to fall short of the 2017 Budget estimate by R50.8 billion (during MTBPS 2017), the largest downward revision since the 2009 recession. Eve...

President Ramaphosa ushers a new era in South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Feb 2018

A few minutes ago,President Ramaphosa delivered his first State of Nation Address (SONA), emphasizing the dawn of a new era, an era of hope and reconstrution. He committed himself and his incoming government to ethical leadership, a departure from his predecessor, and reversion to the type of lea...

Zuma's era ends in 24 hours!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 14 Feb 2018

At last, Zuma's missteps, tactics and strategies check-mated him. He has been put in a no-win binnary position:"resign before mid-night, or tomorrow at 14h00 the Parliament will remove you via a vote of no confidence supported by the combined ANC, EFF and all other opposition parties." To reach t...

Zuma Defiant, snubbing the ANC's NEC
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Feb 2018

Last night at the hour of midnight, the ANC President, Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC Secretary General, Ace Magashule, were instructed by the ANC's NEC to deliver a personal message to President Zuma: resign or face the ANC NEC's recall. Zuma sent them back with a sharp and short message of defianc...

Zuma's defining moment today
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2018

Today, the fate of President Zuma is to be "finalised" at the emergency meeting of ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC)- which is the highest decision-making body of the Party. Last week, all indications were that ANC President, Cyril Ramaphosa, was making good progress in reaching an amicabl...

Zuma exit: chaos, confusion and political drama
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2018

Yesterday SA’s governing party, the ANC, was thrown into a deep blend of mixed messages, ambiguous optimism, and unprecedented actions. First there was an announcement for an emergency meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC), to be convened on behest of the Party’s president, Mr C...

Zuma's era ending soon
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Feb 2018 · 1 response

The SA Parliament just announced that the Paliament's opening and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) 2018 are postponed until further notice. This is the first concrete sign that Zuma is unlikely to address the Parliament anymore. Earlier today, the Presidency announced that Zuma has summoned...

Zuma Count Down: the "non-president" president of SA
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2018 · 1 response

over the past couple of days, it has become clear that Zuma's days are numbered. On Thursday last week, the newly elected National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC passed a motion to negotiate an exit plan for Zuma. Then the NEC moved quickly to demonstrate that Zuma has no de facto president...

The reserve bank opts to keep interest rates unchanged amid credit rating uncertainties
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Jan 2018

The South African Reserve Bank’s Governor Lesetja Kganyago has announced today that the MPC has voted in favour of leaving the repo rate unchanged at 6.75 and therefore the prime interest rate at 10.25. The Reserve Bank MPC’s decision to not change interest rates comes despite the latest infla...

New ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa injects some optimism into the South African economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 17 Jan 2018

South Africa’s Growth: The South African economy has managed to grow at a relatively decent rate (2.0%) during the third quarter of 2017, following the surprise 2.8% growth in the second. Generally, however, the country’s economic growth has been stuck in low gear, averaging only 2.1% over the pa...

Cyril Ramaphosa launches his ANC Presidency
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 13 Jan 2018 · 1 response

Today, the ANC celebrates its 106th years, in its customary "8th of January Statement". The Party was formed on 8th of January 106 years back. Its new president, Cyril Ramaphosa delivered a strong and wide-ranging speech in the presence of the party's newly elected National Executive Committee (N...

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