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Policy Uncertainty Derailing SA Economic Recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Presentation · 04 May 2017

The SA economy is afflicted by structural blockages as well as high political and policy uncertainty. A climate of low confidence for business and consumers is undermining future growth prospects. Currency volatility presents a major upside risk to the inflation outlook; the Reserve Bank is now l...

Economic Recovery in Danger of Being Derailed by Political Turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 18 Apr 2017

Summary and Assumptions: • South Africa’s Growth: Economic growth in South Africa for 2016 came at a post 2008/09 financial crisis low of 0.3%. Real growth however tuned negative during the last quarter of 2016 as it contracted by 0.3%, following a growth rate of 0.4% in the third quarter of 201...

The Reserve Bank Remains Dovish Amid Political Uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Mar 2017

The South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee has once again opted to keep the benchmark interest rate at 7% and therefore the prime lending rate at 10.5%. This took place amid the latest political turmoil that is once again spearheaded by the Republic’s President, Mr Jacob Zuma.

South Africa: A New Minister of Finance & A New Fiscal Dispensation
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017 · 1 response

Malusi Gigaba is South Africa's new Minister of Finance, and his deputy is Mr Sfiso Buthelezi. Previously, Gigaba has been Minister of State Enterprises before, and in the recent past he was Minister of Home Affairs. He is a staunch Zuma supporter, and the face of new generation of ANC leaders. D...

President Zuma Strikes: Sfiso Buthelezi is new Deputy Minister of Finance
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017 · 1 response

The much awaited cabinet reshuffle happened, and it was swift and far reaching. After a blistering attack by the SA Communist Party earlier today, Zuma strikes to assert his authority without concerns for politics or economics. Not only is Minister Pravin Gordhan sacked, but also a large number o...

SA Minister of Finance: Pravin Gordhan Sacked
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

It is now confirmed that Pravin Gordhan is sacked as the SA Minister of Finance. His replacement is not yet formally announced. Most likely candidates is Mr Sfiso Buthelezi as the replacement for Pravin Gordhan, and Brian Molefe is a likely Deputy Minister of Finance....

President Zuma's Reshuffle Update
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

President Zuma is reported to have sacked 9 ministers and 6 deputy ministers. All details are not out, but it is almost certain that Minister Gordhan and Deputy Minister Jonas would be amongst the 15. TV station ANN7, the Gupta Family's TV station, has just reported the news. The official preside...

President Zuma's High Risk Road
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

Earlier this evening, at around 19h00, President Zuma convened an emergency meeting of the ANC Top 6, he called a number of ministers to stand by too. This is the strongest sign so far that he may have made up his mind to take the high risk road after all. If he reshuffles, both Minister of Finan...

Zuma's Cabinet Reshuffle Plan: His Plot Backfires big time
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 30 Mar 2017

Over the past 24 hours a ground swell of political pressures have targeted Zuma, piling focus on him and his allies and cronies so as to push him to back off. This morning, the SA Communist Party and Business Leadership SA , and many others including x-President Motlanthe have come out calling fo...

President Zuma and Pravin Gordhan: Shifting the Risk Burden
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017

President Zuma convened a meeting of his cabinet earlier this evening to discuss the sudden recall of Minister Gordhan forcing him to abort his no-deal roadshow in London. Tomorrow the cabinet will brief the nation on the outcome of cabinet deliberations. But it appears that the President's push ...

President Zuma and The ANC Dynamics
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 29 Mar 2017 · 1 response

SA is gripped by rumours and speculations about President Zuma's imminent cabinet reshuffle. The focus centers on whether or not he will axe Pravin Gordhan as the Minister of Finance. The reshuffle is about much more than Minister of Finance, yet this is the critical pivot- certainly for the fina...

President Zuma Vs Minister Gordhan: The Mexican Standoff is about to End!
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 28 Mar 2017 · 3 responses

Over the past 24 hours, President Zuma has signalled his strongest message yet that he is ready to introduce his long -awaited cabinet reshuffle. In my earlier notes I had predicted that he would do so by March 3rd, or latest March 10th! He missed those deadlines, and he now has to catch up. The ...

The Current Account Deficit Contracts in 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Mar 2017

Following an increase during the third quarter of 2016 (to 3.8% of GDP), the deficit on the current account narrowed markedly during the fourth quarter of 2016 to register 1.7% of GDP. In a similar manner, the current account deficit for 2016 as a whole declined to 3.3% of GDP from 4.4% of GDP in...

GDP Contracts in the Last Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Mar 2017

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, GDP in the last quarter of 2016 contracted by 0.3% (Graph 1). This was the second time the South African economy contracted on a quarterly basis in 2016 - a year that saw the country’s economy laboring under headwinds emanating fr...

A delicate fiscal balancing act on the political tightrope
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Feb 2017 · 2 responses

​The 2017 Budget Speech was delivered in a politically fraught environment, with rumours rife about a possible Cabinet reshuffle, and the potential removal of either the Minister of Finance, Mr Pravin Gordhan, or the Deputy Minister, Mr Mcebisi Jonas (who had made damning public disclosures about...

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