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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South African Economy: The China Effect
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Aug 2015

As a member of the “fragile five”, South Africa was hit hard by the global financial vortex that engulfed the markets this week. Its currency was hardest hit, and the Johannesburg stock exchange lost over 7% of its market cap. The global turmoil coincided with a raft of other negative indicators:...

GDP Growth Takes a Hit
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Aug 2015

Real (inflation adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices decreased by 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the second quarter of 2015 according to official figures reported by Statistics South Africa. This follows quarter one’s modest growth of 1.3%, meaning that the ra...

Confidence Continues to Tumble
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 25 Aug 2015

A combination of unfavourable factors arising both locally and internationally are placing a strain on South Africa’s already fragile economy. This has led to compromised confidence in the country for both consumers and business. Overall, we expect lacklustre economic performance as factors such ...

Playing Monetary Hawk and Dove Games at the Economy’s Peril
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jul 2015

On July 23, 2015, the monetary authority of South Africa voted to increase the repo rate by 25 basis points. Such a move can be construed as a confirmation that the South African Reserve Bank has kept to its long-held assertion that it had embarked on an interest rate hiking cycle. Apparently, th...

South Africa’s Shifting Political Economy: Labor Unions Thrown into Turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Jul 2015

After a year-long struggle to regain its membership of COSATU, SA’s largest private sector union, National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (NUMSA) with an estimated membership of over 360,000 members, resolved to go on its own and form a new “union confederation” and launch its own “workeri...

The Benchmark Interest Rate Goes Up
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jul 2015

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to increase the repo rate from 5.75 to 6.0% per year, effective Friday, July 24, 2015 (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Repo rate, South Africa, Jul ’13 – Jul ‘15 Source: SARB and PAIRS Today’s MPC decision appears to be largely...

A Bumpy Inflation Landscape
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Jun 2015

Headline inflation has accelerated from 4% year on year (y/y) in March 2015 to 4.6% y/y in May 2015. Producer price inflation for final manufactured goods increased significantly, to 3.6% y/y in May 2015 from 3.0% y/y recorded in April. Essentially, the trend in domestic inflation has reversed co...

The Current Account Deficit Remains in Place
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Jun 2015

After having eased to 5.1% of the gross domestic product in Q4 2014, the deficit on the current account narrowed further, to 4.8% in Q1 2015 (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Current account balance, South Africa, 2010 Q1- 2015 Q1 Notes: (1) The data is seasonally adjusted and annualized.(2) Current account...

Confidence under Strain
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2015

Despite some outbursts of optimism, confidence among businesses and consumers in the South African economy remains by and large depressed. On a combined basis, this has largely been the case since 2012. Under this regime, growth prospects for South Africa are uninspiring. The prevailing state of ...

A Sharp Slowdown in Q1 2015 GDP Growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 May 2015

According to Statistics South Africa's official figures released today, the inflation adjusted (real) gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a muted quarterly, seasonally adjusted and annualized rate of 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015. This follows a notable improvement in the preced...

South Africa's Macroeconomic Challenges Deepen
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 26 May 2015

Today's Real GDP growth of 1.3% together with a material increase in the country's already high unemployment rate have worsened the macroeconomic outlook. The Minister of Finance was hoping for an annual rate of 2% for 2015, at this rate this budgeted figure is fading away fast. The Minister may ...

The Benchmark Interest Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2015

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favour of maintaining the repo rate at the prevailing level of 5.75 per cent a year (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Core, headline inflation and repo rates, South Africa, 2009 Jan – 2015 May* Source: SARB and PAIRSNote: *2009...

Sowing the Seeds of Uncertainty
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 05 May 2015

Executive Summary Confidence across sections of the South African economy remains low, dragged by uncertainties about the electricity supply, industrial relations instability and socioeconomic tension. In all, economic performance appears to have entered a slow down phase. South Africa’s economic...

The Aftertaste of Debt is Gradually Turning Bitter
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

The rising likelihood of an increase in US interest rates is inducing an economic policy headache in South Africa. In view of this, a backdrop would be handy before we carry on. The South African economy is performing well below potential. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fu...

The Inflation Outlook Glass is Indeed Half Empty
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Mar 2015

Today, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.75% per annum, citing deteriorated inflationary prospects. Granted, the headline inflation rate has moderated significantly over the past months, from 5.9% year-on-year (y/y...

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