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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The South African bond market remains vulnerable to the country’s weak fundamentals
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Apr 2021

Yields on South African bonds have been particularly volatile since March 2020 largely on the back of the Covid-19 pandemic and the country losing its last investment grade credit rating from a major rating agency, further downgrades, and the subsequent non-resident net sales of bonds. Moreover, ...

The ANC under President Ramaphosa moves to clean house – finally
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Mar 2021

Corruption has had a profoundly negative impact on South Africa’s economy and society. At the same time, the country’s governing party, the African National Congress (ANC), has been guilty of a myriad of corrupt practices, both at the local and national levels. Notably, government finances have d...

South Africa’s monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting the economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Mar 2021

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced it is keeping the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%, hence the prime lending rate also remains at 7%. The repo rate has stayed at 3.5% since end-July 2020 following consecutive cuts of a cumulative 300 basis points fr...

South Africa’s current account balance records an annual surplus for the first time in 20 years
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Mar 2021

The current account data released today by the South African Reserve Bank shows that South Africa’s current account recorded another considerable surplus during the fourth quarter of 2020. Still, the surplus narrowed from R294.4 billion in the third quarter to R197.8 billion, making it the second...

South Africa’s economy recovered during H2-2020, but not enough to avert the 7% total GDP decline in 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Mar 2021

Real GDP, arguably the most noteworthy economic metric, indicates that South Africa continued its recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020, registering a growth rate of 6.3% quarter on quarter on an annualized basis. This also marked a somewhat return to "normal" annualized GDP prints following the...

The 2021 National Budget Speech signals relief for consumers, companies and investment attraction
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Feb 2021

The South African government has stressed on a number of occasions – namely, the Mid-Term Budget Policy Statement, after the sovereign ratings downgrade, the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan, the African National Congress January 8th Statement and the 2021 State of the Nation Address – t...

President Ramaphosa’s 2021 State of the Nation Address offers a mixed scorecard
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

President Cyril Ramaphosa opened this year’s Parliament and delivered the 2021 State of the Nation Address (SONA) under an undoubtedly reshaped global and domestic economic environment. Usually a glamorous and expensive affair, the opening of Parliament in 2021 was scaled down to 30 Members of Pa...

The balancing act of saving lives, livelihoods and economic revival
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 04 Feb 2021

As the global economy starts to recover from the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are faced with the challenge of managing the second wave of infections and securing vaccines for the virus. The latter is already exposing the fact that the road to recovery will be uneven and...

The South African Reserve Bank remains put: missed opportunity or level-headedness?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Jan 2021 · 1 response

South Africa’s (SA) Monetary Policy Committee met on Thursday, January 21, for the first time in 2021. In line with the Bloomberg economists’ survey consensus, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates unchanged at 7% and 3.5% for the prime rate and repo rate, respectively. This is follow...

The ANC’s January 8th Priorities in the Context of South Africa’s Economic Reality
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jan 2021 · 1 response

The ANC issued its first January 8th Statement on its founding date (8th January 1972) and in 1979, it was decided to mark the ANC’s anniversary on every January 8th. In recent years, this day has been marked with huge country-wide celebrations. Its economic importance, however, is that it paves ...

Trade boosts current account balance in the third quarter of 2020
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

South Africa’s (SA) current account recorded a surplus of R297.5bn or 5.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months ending September 2020. In Q2-2020, the figure was a deficit of R123.7bn or -2.9% (revised from -R104.bn or -2.4%) of GDP. This implies that for the first 9 months of 2020...

South Africa registers impressive Q3 GDP growth: a reason to celebrate or an economy wrestling with headwinds?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2020

South Africa (SA) has exited its longest recession in more than two decades, registering 66.1% q/q GDP growth in annualized terms (non-annualized: 13.5%). This, after contracting by 51.7% in the second quarter (non-annualized: 16.4%). A year-on-year comparison shows a contraction of 6%, better th...

President Ramaphosa’s drive to address South Africa’s need for investment
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Nov 2020

Since assuming office back in 2018, President Ramaphosa has been on a mission to raise capital for the SA economy’s growth recovery. From a demand perspective, three things that make up GDP can determine the quantity and direction of economic growth: domestic consumption, investment and the trade...

SARB decides on a cautionary "wait and see" approach, keeping the repo rate unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Nov 2020

In a largely anticipated move, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has opted to keep the repo rate unchanged at the last MPC meeting of the year. This comes as two members of the committee preferred a 25-bps cut and three members voted for a hold. The decision is in line with Bloomberg economis...

South Africa’s structural vulnerabilities worsen as the Covid-19 pandemic takes a toll on the country’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2020

Summary and Assumptions • Employment: 2.2 million individuals lost their jobs during the second quarter of 2020 amid strict economic lockdowns to slow the progress of Covid-19 infections. Surveys show improvement in employment prospects in H2 2020 from Q2 2020, but also indicate that overall, th...

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