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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A 50-basis point increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2022

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is hiking the benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points – its largest since the beginning of 2016. This was following this week’s conclusion of its Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) third meeting of the year. The repo rate t...

A promising start to South Africa’s economy in 2022 following a robust recovery in 2021, but risks have intensified
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Apr 2022

• South African growth: South Africa’s economy underwent a robust recovery of 4.9% in real GDP during 2021 from 2020’s deep contraction of 6.4%. On top of growth coming from a low base as well as the recovering global economy acting as a tailwind, South Africa’s growth was also propelled by the s...

Another 25-bp increase in the repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Mar 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced yesterday that it is once again raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points – its third consecutive increase. This pushes the repo rate up​ from 4% to 4.25% and the prime lending rate from 7.5% to 7.75%. ...

South Africa registers a record current account surplus in 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Mar 2022

The current account data released yesterday by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that South Africa’s current account recorded a surplus of R120 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. This represented another decline in the record surpluses since H2 2020; from R273 billion, R300 billion and...

The South African economy rebounded strongly in 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2022

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) today indicate that South Africa’s economy grew positively in the final quarter of 2021 following its contraction during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 1.2% q/q, an indication...

Budget 2022 showcases a commodity tax bonanza, presents considerable social spend, and an improved debt trajectory for South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Feb 2022

As he delivered his 2022 State of the Nation Address (SONA), President Ramaphosa made it clear that South Africa is currently facing “extreme fiscal constraints”, and this is the backdrop against which Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday delivered Budget 2022. Throughout his speech, the M...

The South African economy at the beginning of 2022: end of Covid-19 fourth wave and more vaccinated, but low confidence persists
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 11 Feb 2022

• South African Tourism: Tourism is an important sector of the South African economy (it contributed 3.7% to total GDP in 2019) and it has been one of the sectors most adversely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Encouragingly, there was an increase in gross travel receipts in the third quarter...

President Ramaphosa's Statement of National Address (SONA) 2022: More of the Same Correct Analysis, Promises of Reforms, and holding the fiscal line
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2022 · 1 response

In his 2-hour SONA, President Ramaphosa delivered a detailed economy-centric speech to the Parliament. Whilst reiterating his administration's commitment to the Constitutional Democracy, he articulated his market-friendly economic ideology more crisply than ever before. "Government does not creat...

South Africa’s political future and the ANC’s leadership challenges
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Feb 2022

The greatest threat facing South Africa and its future, that is, besides the obvious current threat of the Covid-19 pandemic facing the entire world, is poor governance and leadership misfit. The majority of South Africa’s population that had lived under Apartheid’s atrocious conditions suddenly ...

The South African Reserve Bank starts 2022 where it ended off in 2021 – by hiking interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2022

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met this week for its first 2022 meeting and announced its interest rate decision yesterday. In line with the Reuters' poll of economists’ consensus, the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. As such, t...

The ANC acknowledges the deterioration of the Party during its 110th anniversary celebrations, but will it enact the necessary reforms?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jan 2022

In sticking with tradition, and despite South Africa’s fourth wave of Covid-19, fueled by the Omicron variant, the governing African National Congress (ANC) had its annual celebration of the founding of the party (January 8, 1912). Since 1972, the party has used these annual celebrations as an op...

The State Capture Zondo Commission Report is out- finally
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

The year began with a bang on the South Africa's political economy stage. This is a critical year for SA's medium term political outlook as the ANC is heading for its mid-term elective congress in December 2022 at which the next leadership of the Party will be elected, and by implication the next...

South Africa records its fifth consecutive current account surplus in Q3
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2021

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2021, South Africa’s current account registered its fifth consecutive surplus since the third quarter of 2020. The surplus however narrowed from R311 billion in the second quarter ...

South Africa’s recovery momentum faltered in Q3 amid civil unrest and the third wave of Covid-19 infections
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Dec 2021

As we had expected and predicted in previous reports, the South African economy contracted during the third quarter of 2021, with real annualized quarterly GDP declining by 1.5%. This was following four consecutive quarters of positive growth since Q3 2020, with growth rates of 0.9% q/q and 1.1% ...

South Africa's local government elections augur tectonic democratic political changes
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Nov 2021 · 1 response

Over the past 48 hours, South Africa's local government councils have scrambled to meet the constitutional deadline for the establishment of their municipal governing structures. As reported before, the dominant African National Congress (ANC) experienced a much harsher than expected voter backla...

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