Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - MEXICO ELECTIONS: AT A CROSSROAD...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Decreasing energy import prices should break the negative trend of the BOP this year
HUNGARY · Forecast · 25 Jan 2023

This quarterly update of our macro forecast partially follows the same basic trend as the one presented in our previous forecast report, released in October. However, it includes some important changes regarding key assumptions, real and nominal growth, inflation and the forint’s exchange rate, a...

MNB's rate decision followed analysts' expectation, kind of
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2023

The Monetary Council left all of its interest rates unchanged today, just as analysts expected. But this does not mean there were no policy changes at all. Most importantly, the mandatory reserve ratio for banks will be raised further, from 5% to 10% from April. As a reminder, the Bank raised the...

No interest rate measure is expected from the Monetary Council tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2023

At the first regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow, analysts uniformly do not expect any interest rate step, and indeed no significant policy change of any type. What they find potentially interesting could be the Council's communication, from which the investors might try to draw conclus...

Fitch Ratings changed the outlook for its sovereign BBB to negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Jan 2023

On January 20, Fitch published its first revision to Hungary's sovereign rating this year, affirming its BBB rating but lowering its outlook to negative. The agency explained the decision citing two kinds of factors: general risks, such as challenging global conditions, high interest rates, volat...

Positive surprise on inflation in December, with a small footnote on methodology
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023 · 1 response

December figures on CPI-inflation, reported this morning, look just beautiful. They are 1.9% mom, 24.5% yoy, the year-on-year number up from 22.5% in November. But the median analyst expectation in Portfolio.hu's survey was 25.8%, and MNB's Q4 inflation report expected 24.8-27.1%. The latter was ...

Genuine bad news on industry and merchandise trade in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Industrial output fell by 0.7% mom, on sda basis, in November, following a 3.6% mom decrease in the previous month. This pulled the yoy expansion down to 0.7% in November, from 4.8% in October and 8.3% in Q3.  November numbers are preliminary, meaning a revision in the final data is unlikely but ...

Is inflation still accelerating? Well, it depends...
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2023

Looking at CPI data, the answer is a clear YES. But looking at producer prices, the answer must be much more like a clear NO. Given sharply weakening consumer demand and the close to spectacularly strengthening currency, the latter seems to be more logical. But there is still a good amount of pen...

Record warm weather in Europe, gas reserves slightly up, gas price massively down
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

It seems that for now at least, Mother Nature is refusing to play to the hands of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Mr. Putin), whose not-so-secret objectives include making Europe truly feel the winter cold, as gas supplies are proving insufficient. In these days, most of Europe, including Hungary, is exp...

Budget decree issued: a deficit of transparency
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

Just as expected, the government issued its decree to amend the 2023 budget on December 29. However, the decree did not include the whole set of documents, which are usually delivered to parliament for the discussion of annual budgets. As they have said, the budget will be handed in for ex-post a...

A glimpse of better inflation prospects
HUNGARY · Report · 28 Dec 2022

Honestly, there was little reason to be very optimistic about Hungary, and about the whole of the CEE region, in most part of 2022. Yet in the last few weeks, a glimpse of better prospects for 2023 may have appeared suddenly. No, we do not share the optimistic official view that a recession of...

Under the Christmas tree: EU Commission approved Hungary's plan to use 2021-2027 cohesion policy funds
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Dec 2022

In a major forint-positive step, the EU commission approved the Partnership Agreement with Hungary, that is essentially the country's plan to utilise its €22bn cohesion policy grant quota set for the 2021-2027 medium-term budget period. This followed the signing of Hungary's plan for the utilisat...

No surprise at all from the MNB today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Dec 2022

The Monetary Council left all policies unchanged today, in line with a strong analyst consensus expectation. Moreover, the Council made an attempt to say as little as possible, despite the fact that some basic statements had to be made on the Q4 inflation report, which they discussed today, and i...

Analysts expect no change in MNB interest rates tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2022

The Monetary Council is scheduled to hold its last regular rate-setting meeting tomorrow. According to Portfolio.hu's poll, analyst are unanimously betting on no change in interest rates - the 18% O/N depo, the 13% base rate, and the 12.5-25% interest rate corridor. (For sure, the O/N depo rate i...

Deal has been reached on EU funds, at last
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Dec 2022

Pretty much in the last minute before the EU Summit of December 15, EU member states managed to agree last night on a compromise package of measures with Hungary. As part of this: - Hungary agreed to step back from its intended veto on a common borrowing action to back EU financial assistance to ...

CPI-inflation in November: would no negative surprise be a surprise now?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Dec 2022

Monthly CPI-inflation data have kept surprising analysts on the negative side lately. And so it happened in November as well. The yoy headline rate rose to 22.5% from the 21.1% reported in October, whereas analysts expected only 22%. Once again, the main driver was food, where prices rose by an a...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.