Services

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Facing the Growth Test in 2016
HUNGARY · Forecast · 20 Oct 2015

GDP growth slowdown, verified by data for Q2 and beyond, will probably persist for the rest of 2015 and 2016, with annual growth at 2.5% this year, just 1.2% in 2016, and a recovery to 2% in 2017, in response to the pick-up of EU transfer distributions from the EU’s 2014-2020 budget. Factors behi...

September CPI data changes inflation outlook markedly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2015

Falling crude oil prices seem to have been playing to the hands of the MNB's policy of monetary easing recently, just as we pointed out in our mid-September monthly. But there is one big difference between actuals and the inflation outlook we provided in that report: at that time, domestic fuel p...

Once more on Volkswagen's impact on growth
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2015

A few days ago, we said that based on then available information, the running Volkswagen case was likely to cut Hungary's real GDP growth by up to 0.5% points over the next 12 months. Then a day later economy minister Varga said it was 0.3-0.6%, although he did not clarify if he meant an annual o...

Volkswagen to have an impact on Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Sep 2015

It would be terribly difficult to tell at this point , what exactly the effects of the ongoing Volkswagen case will be. However, it is increasingly for sure that the global impact will be significant and, more importantly for us, Hungary is unlikely to remain unaffected, because of its significan...

MNB has announced a supplementary measure today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2015

I am sorry to return to the same subject within one day, but as it happened, the MNB has just announced a supplementary measure, in addition to those published after yesterday's Monetary Council meeting. It is about the central bank's interest rate corridor around the (unchanged) 1.35% base rate,...

MNB decided to loosen monetary conditions further on September 22-23
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2015

The MNB decided to keep its base rate at 1.35% yesterday, but the bank changed the main sterilization instrument on which the base rate is paid, from 2-week deposits to a new 3-month deposit facility, with unlimited access. This morning, the Bank held an auction for 2-week deposits, at which it l...

Hungary's standing within the EU regarding the refugee crisis has improved recently
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2015

A week ago, we launched a somewhat pessimistic analysis on Hungary's outlook in the ongoing refugee crisis, suggesting that the government has essentially no good choice in trying to solve the problem. This conclusion is still valid for the longer run, but the government used the few tactical cha...

Urgent: Improve Migration Policy
HUNGARY · Report · 14 Sep 2015

The influx of Middle Eastern refugees is placing rising pressure on Hungary, and is becoming the country’s top political issue. The government has two options, neither of them favorable for Fidesz or for Hungary. The country could either defy the EU, blocking the entry of new migrants and allowin...

A slight problem with the government debt ratio
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Aug 2015

Until now, we have been saying that should the cash deficit target of 2.7% of GDP be achieved, the general government debt ratio would most probably fall moderately, to 76.2% of GDP at year end from 76.9% of GDP at end-2014. In July, we also said that budget implementation was running largely on ...

Question Marks Are Growing
HUNGARY · Report · 12 Aug 2015

Moving closer to the end of 2015, an increasingly intriguing question is how the authorities will handle the combination of decelerating output growth, weak domestic investment, rising inflation, the imminent decrease of development grants from the EU and the continued inactivity seen at domestic...

The MNB reduced the base rate but also ended its recent easing cycle on July 21
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jul 2015

In our monthly report of July, we predicted that at the Monetary Council's next meeting, the MNB would end its most recent series of base rate cuts, which was started in March from 2.1% and was carried out in 15 bps steps over four consecutive months since then. This was in the face of an average...

End of Monetary Loosening?
HUNGARY · Forecast · 13 Jul 2015

Executive Summary In H2 2015, Hungarian policy-makers will have to reckon with negative global capital market conditions. Stock markets have reached a mature phase of their bull cycle, characterized by frequent and sizeable corrections, and bond markets have passed their cyclical peak. This envir...

Hungary is looking ahead to incalculable Greek events with healthy fundamentals
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jun 2015

Most recent events with regard to Greece have proven to be genuinely incalculable, and so it may continue in the forthcoming days and weeks. As the potential capital market consequences on Europe and perhaps even more on the eastern side of the continent may be significant, it is good to remember...

Another 15 bps cut by the MNB, further small reduction promised
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2015

The MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.5% today, just as widely expected. Including this measure, the MNB has cut the base rate by a full 60 bps in equal steps over the past four months. The forint received this news quite negligently, hovering around EURHUF 310, which essentially represent...

MNB Policy: Defying Headwinds
HUNGARY · Report · 12 Jun 2015

Executive SummaryThe MNB stepped up efforts to ease policy over the past month. In late May, it cut the base rate by another 15 bps to 1.65%, and then in early June, it announced quantitative easing through a reform of its regulatory instruments and mechanism, effective late September. The latter...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.