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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal Policy is Becoming the Critical Factor
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The new government cabinet was sworn in in early June, but it has brought about little change in policy content if any. The new cabinet has failed to present a program and, breaking with traditions, has said that it does not even intend to publish one. So as PM Orbán said before...

Very strong GDP figure out for Q1 2014
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 May 2014

Real GDP grew a preliminary 1.1% qoq / 3.2% yoy swda in Q1 2014, following a revised 0.7% qoq / 2.9% yoy swda in Q4 2013, as reported by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) this morning. This is a seven-year peak in the yoy number. As usual for preliminary GDP data releases, no details are avail...

Post-Election Fine Tuning
HUNGARY · Report · 13 May 2014

Executive Summary Although the new cabinet is not expected to be up and running before early June, post-election policy shifts are discernable, in the new Central Bank and State Debt Management Agency measures to reshape government financing, and the update of Hungary’s convergence program. Herei...

Zero inflation trend continued in April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2014

CPI-inflation for April came out at 0.1% mom / -0.1% yoy in April, which made the average Jan-Apr yoy inflation rate exactly 0%. The April data was pulled down by a 0.5% yoy decline of food prices, due to the right amount of rainfall and the lack of freezing temperatures, which could have destroy...

MNB Moves towards Smaller Balance Sheet & Less External Funding
HUNGARY · Report · 25 Apr 2014

The Measures On 24 April 2014, the central bank (MNB) announced a series of measures to reshape its monetary policy facilities within a few months’ time. The measures announced were the following: From 1 August 2014, the MNB will change the form of its main sterilization instrument. The existing ...

After the Election: Political Stability, Healthy Macro Balances & Low Growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 11 Apr 2014

Executive Summary In our first Quarterly Report on Hungary, we deal with the results and the likely impact of the election held last Sunday, and a macro forecast running through end-2016. On the latter, we provide readers with an explanation of the direction, the movers and the dynamics of expect...

Hungary Voted for Continuity
HUNGARY · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Fidesz-KDNP Won a Constitutional Majority Again According to preliminary results released by the National Electoral Committee, the incumbent governing alliance Fidesz-KDNP won the regular four-yearly election held in the unicameral National Assembly yesterday (April 6). The winner acquired 133 ou...

Fidesz-KDNP Holds The Steering Wheel Tight
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Mar 2014

Executive Summary With the election coming up in early April, our first theme is politics, including campaign events and the voting outlook. Second, we are looking at the rationale behind the MNB’s continued rate cuts in the face of HUF weakening. Third, inflation prospects after the early-2014 C...

Central Bank Policy: Which Way is Forward?
HUNGARY · Report · 10 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Since our latest report on 9 January, important new information has surfaced in six areas. This included an eyebrow-raising speech by MNB governor Matolcsy in late January, an official announcement on the third wave of administrative cuts in public utility tariffs, a government ...

Introductory Report: Short-term Stability with Serious Sustainability Concerns
HUNGARY · Report · 09 Jan 2014

Executive Summary With a recovery underway, fiscal stabilisation implemented, record low inflation, and a sizeable current and capital account surplus, Hungary shows signs of strengthening macro fundamentals. Sovereign credit and bonds improved substantially, despite the sizable external and gove...

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