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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Supply-side solutions for demand-side problems
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Sep 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue:​ * Although China’s GDP growth has continued to slow quite dramatically, Beijing doesn’t yet seem to have been panicked into planning a heavy stimulus. Although I do think we can expect a mild stimulus in the next month or two, I continue to believe t...

Hong Kong is distracting us from the growth and credit data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While nothing can be ruled out in such a politically complicated environment, the cost of a direct intervention by forces loyal to Beijing into Hong Kong is very high, making it unlikely. An intervention would cause a sharp fall in Chinese exports ...

What does it mean for the RMB to “crack 7”?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 05 Aug 2019

​• The RMB closed above 7 to the dollar today for the first time since before the financial crisis in 2008, and that was part of the currency’s steady appreciation path since July 2005. This is mainly about political signaling, and reflects the fact that Beijing has very few tools with which to r...

What we can learn from the Baoshang takeover
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jul 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The sudden takeover of Baoshang Bank on May 24 shocked markets and caused interbank interest rates to soar, probably because it suggested that lenders to Chinese banks might have to start taking responsibility for poor credit decisions. • Baoshang, h...

Not much changed at the G20 meeting
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 01 Jul 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Following the meetings in Osaka, markets have heaved sighs of relief, especially in China where the SCI 300 was up 2.9 percent today and where the agreement between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump has been presented as a triumph for Xi and a real reso...

A change in Chinese demand for American soy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 May 2019 · 1 response

As a follow up to my newsletter, it occurred to me that there may indeed be a change in Chinese demand for American soy over the next two years, but not because of trade sanctions. As everyone knows by now, China is suffering from a tremendous pork shortage thanks to the ravages of swine flu. A l...

How China can and cannot retaliate on trade
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 May 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The mood changed dramatically in China last week, with Beijing now angrily criticizing Washington for its role in the trade negotiations. * Beijing’s change of strategy should be seen primarily within a domestic political context. President X...

Last year’s deep pessimism seems to have abated
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Apr 2019 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * While China’s first quarter GDP growth came in above expectations, at 6.4 percent year on year, this does not represent the recovery in the underlying economy that many analysts are claiming, not because the growth numbers are fake but simply bec...

How to think about Chinese medium-term growth prospects
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Mar 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: • China’s two national political sessions last week set off a largely expected series of announcements and a huge amount of analysis, with nothing fundamentally changing. Beijing still faces the same constraints and the same set of adjustment scenarios....

Are Chinese stock gains sustainable?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Feb 2019 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Chinese stock market may well continue to deliver outsized returns for the rest of 2019, and if I had to bet, I would bet that it will perform well, but the recent rise has been all technical and there are no fundamental reasons driving the bull...

How to think about China’s Year of the Pig
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Jan 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: • On February 5, the Year of the Pig begins. This is supposed to be a good year for making money, especially in the stock markets, and it may well turn out to be true, but only because the past year has been so miserable and Beijing may be thinking of ...

December’s economic work conference
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Dec 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The annual Economic Work Conference ended today, and Beijing has released the official statement summarizing the event. It said most of the things we expected it to say. In 2019 Beijing will continue to try to walk the impossibly fine line between sti...

Why isn’t the US a trade-surplus economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Nov 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • In a well-functioning world of global trade, the US should either run a more-or-less balanced trade account or it should run persistent trade surpluses. In standard trade theory, it is the norm for rich, mature economies with high income levels and ef...

Bad news for China from Brazil; no news in the Chinese data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Oct 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Jair Bolsonaro’s election Sunday as President of Brazil is not, at least on paper, especially good news for China. The “tropical Trump” has attacked China consistently in his speeches, but even if he has no intention of following through, to the exte...

Is rising household debt helping China to rebalance?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 02 Oct 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * It is not meaningful to refer to a rebalancing of the Chinese economy if the growth in the consumption share of GDP is powered by rising household debt. The goal of rebalancing is to allow China to grow without a worsening of the country’s debt burden...

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