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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China’s highly distorted private equity funding
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Sep 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Economists usually try to evaluate a country’s debt position according to various debt ratios, but what often matters even more is how institutional distortions affect debt dynamics. China’s financial system is locked into a process in which excessiv...

Tariff wars are likely to be disinflationary
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Aug 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Contrary to what many seem to believe, tariffs, even if they are much more widely implemented in the US, China, and elsewhere, are not likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures. On the contrary, they are more likely to be disinflationary because t...

Will China step again on the gas?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Jul 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Over the past three months a scandal has emerged at Huarong Asset Management which may turn out to have substantial implications for the Chinese economy and for asset liquidation abroad. Huarong is the largest of the four AMCs created in 1999, and ...

Can China sustain RMB depreciation?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Jun 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Beijing must be seen as having the ability to respond effectively and powerfully to American threats of trade intervention. RMB depreciation is one of the few responses it has, which is probably why the RMB has dropped 4 percent against the US dollar...

How long will China’s slowdown last?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Jun 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • A sharp slowdown in economic growth in May was preceded by a sharp slowdown in credit growth. Analysts are confusing the slowdown in credit growth with the deleveraging process, and will undoubtedly point out that Chinese deleveraging is causing gro...

China may impose property taxes soon
CHINA FINANCIAL · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

The implementation of property taxes could help resolve significant distortions caused by the real estate market in China. But property taxes may not be all that is needed to stabilize the real estate market.

China may impose property taxes soon
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 May 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There is a new round of speculation about Beijing’s intentions concerning property taxes. Some analysts suggest that we may see taxes implemented as soon as 2019, and a first draft of a tax bill released later this year. • The real estate market crea...

Globalizations and its constraints
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 27 Apr 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The current round of trade disputes should not be seen as merely a minor Trump-created speedbump on the road to a single global economy. They are part of a longer-term trend in which we are likely to see increasing antipathy to globalization. • While...

Global trade and its discontents
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The Trump administration seems serious about implementing trade intervention policies aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, and especially the deficit with China. While part of the bluster may be for negotiation purposes, whatever happens in the nex...

The Year of the Dog begins
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Feb 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Wang Qishan was recently appointed to the National People’s Congress. It is very rare for a nominally retired CCP high official to gain a seat in the NPC, so his appointment may be significant. There are rumors that he will soon be appointed the count...

Some things to watch for in 2018: Part Two
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jan 2018 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * For all the discussion about enforcing market discipline by eliminating explicit or implicit government guarantees on local-government and corporate borrowings, any credible reintroduction of credit risk is likely to cause an unacceptably large and ...

Some things to watch for in 2018: Part One
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Jan 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Because China still has debt capacity, GDP growth in 2018 will be broadly equal to whatever Beijing sets as its GDP growth target. It is extremely unlikely, however, that Beijing will set the target at anywhere close to the level that allows regulat...

China should not liberalize the economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Nov 2017 · 6 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There are two different reform programs proposed for China which are often conflated, but in fact the two programs are very different and in conflict. • The mainstream reform program consists of reforming institutions in order to enhance productivit...

GDP growth doesn’t mean what you think it means
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Over the next few years either reported GDP growth in China will drop very sharply, probably to well below 2-3 percent, or it must surge to levels that will rival or surpass reported GDP growth in the 1990s and 2000s, probably to well above 10 percen...

Comments on Xi Jinping’s Speech at the Party Congress
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Oct 2017 · 1 response

​For all the ink that will be spilled on it I think there was nothing in today’s speech by Xi Jinping that is likely to cause anyone to change his mind about China's economic prospects, nor was there ever likely to be. This was meant to be a political speech and to check all the necessary boxes. ...

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