Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · Report · 23 May 2022

1. We expect a 0.25% rate hike today on the back of accelerating inflation and fairly robust growth. 2. The GDP contraction in Q122 was a technical correction following growth of 15.6% in Q421. 3. The shekel has appreciated recently, despite further market volatility.

We expect a 0.25% rate hike today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 May 2022

Economic conditions support a 0.25% hike Inflation has accelerated to 4.0% y/y with core at 3.4%, above target. Inflation is more broad-based, including both goods and services. Economic indicators point to fairly robust growth and near-full unemployment. The negative GDP print is a correction fo...

GDP contracted modestly in Q122, not really indicative of actual activity
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 May 2022

GDP contracted modestly in Q122 The official GDP growth print came in at -1.6% saar in the 1st quarter of the year, following rapid growth of 15.6% in Q421 (and 8.2% growth in all 2021).We stress that that past two years of Covid and periodic Covid restrictions led to significant problems in meas...

Inflation accelerates, supportive of steady tightening
ISRAEL · Report · 16 May 2022

1. Inflation in April accelerated to 4% y/y, and core inflation by 3.4%, in line with expectations. 2. Inflation is increasingly broad based, a factor that will support monetary tightening. 3. Economic indicators point to steady growth and a tight labor market.

Inflation accelerates, supportive of steady tightening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2022

April’s CPI increased by 0.8% m/m (4.0% y/y), in line with expectations Core inflation increased by 3.4% y/y from 3% last month, is more broad- based. Accelerating inflation will support a 0.4% rate hike on May 23rd. Our current inflation forecast stands at 3% NTM.The fiscal posture continues to ...

Inflation accelerates in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2022

Inflation accelerates in April Inflation accelerated to 4.0% y/y in April, up from 3.5% last month. The monthly CPI increased by 0.8%, in line with consensus but below our forecast of 0.9%. Core inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%. Several months ago, the BoI began to calculate “core infl...

Fiscal surplus in April + institutional demand for FX continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 May 2022

Fiscal deficit down to 0.6% GDPThe Minister of Finance Liberman revealed yesterday that the fiscal numbers in April continue to surprise on the positive side, reflecting a fiscal surplus in the first four months of the year. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months declined to 0.6% GDP (May 21 th...

The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL · Report · 09 May 2022

* The shekel weakened last week on the back of the downward market correction. * We have revised our inflation forecast upwards, as we no longer expect shekel appreciation this year. * Growth indicators remain positive, the labor market continues to tighten and wage growth in the private ...

The shekel weakens on market volatility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 May 2022

We have revised our inflation forecast upwards to 3.3% NTM In the past, we factored in a modest shekel appreciation on the back of the strong CA surplus and net FDI. Currently, we think that equity market volatility is a more dominant factor impacting the shekel and therefore we are pricing sheke...

Bond issuance will likely continue to decline
ISRAEL · Report · 02 May 2022 · 1 response

1. Government bond issuance declined in May, a trend that is likely to continue in the remainder of the year. 2. Economic indicators have been generally positive, including a tightening labor market, supportive of steady monetary tightening. 3. We expect high inflation in April (0.9% ...

Bond issuance will likely continue to decline
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 May 2022

Positive fiscal numbers have supported lower bond issuance In May, the MoF will issue 3.5bn ILS in tradeable bonds, reduced from 4.5bn in January. This bond reduction is due to surprisingly robust fiscal numbers in Q122, with initial numbers for April pointing to a similar trend. The fiscal defic...

March’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Apr 2022

1. March’s CPI surprised on the downside, mostly due to the surprisingly soft increase in travel abroad costs. 2. We expect this item to support a stronger CPI print in April (0.8% m/m) and beyond. 3. We currently expect inflation to reach 2.8% in the next 12 months. 4. March’s CP...

March’s CPI surprises on the downside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2022

March’s CPI surprises on the downside Inflation in March increased by 0.6% m/m (expectations were for 0.8%, ours as well) and by 3.5% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation (excluding energy and fresh produce) increased by 3% y/y (similar to last month), with core inflation excluding governm...

Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

Rate hike of 0.25% surprises the markets The Bank of Israel decided to hike by 0.25% to 0.35% today, while markets (and myself) had expected a hike of 0.15% to 0.25%, although I saw a 35% probability of a 0.40% hike to 0.5%. The more hawkish bias is due to a combination of accelerating inflation ...

How hawkish will the BoI sound today?
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Apr 2022

1. Rates are expected to move higher today; the bond market will react to the BoI policy rate forecast and the Governor’s press conference. 2. The cumulative fiscal deficit declined to 1.4% GDP in March; we expect bond issuance to decline further. 3. The coalition has weakened, maki...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.