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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The BoI is likely to announce the end of QE this week
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Oct 2021

Economic indicators point to robust growth in Q321, supported by private consumption and export growth. We maintain our below-consensus inflation forecast, assuming further shekel appreciation and relatively modest wage pressure. The BoI is expected to announce the end of QE this week, presenting...

Shekel appreciation continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Sep 2021

Brief Weekly Macro Review26/9/21With Israel still enjoying a holiday season, economic data has been sparse. Here are some highlights: The shekel continues to appreciate, by 0.55% in the past week (against the basket) and by 0.9% so far this month (following 1% in August). In July, foreign investo...

No real surprises in the August CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

The CPI in August rose by 0.3% m/m (in line with consensus, we were expecting 0.24%) and by 2.2% y/y, up from 1.9% last month. Core inflation rose by 0.2% and by 1.9% y/y, up from 1.7% last month.There were no real surprises in the various items. The main housing (rental) item increased slightly ...

GDP growth likely to reach 7% this year; CA surplus remains robust, housing supply remains depressed relative to demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2021

GDP growth in Q221 was revised to 16.6% (from 15.4%), as private consumption expanded by 39.2% (revised from 36.3%), investments expanded by 13.2% (from 9.7%) and exports by 19.8% (previously 18.1%). We expect GDP growth to reach 7% this year, fueled by strong hi-tech exports and strong private c...

The Israel private sector purchases FX, despite CA surplus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2021

The private sector purchases FXIn Q2, the Israeli private sector were net buyers of 3.5bn USD compared to net sellers of 4.8bn in Q1. Despite the fact that Israel enjoys a large CA surplus, not all revenues from exports reach the FX spot market (but rather are kept as FX for future investments), ...

Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

Weekly Macro Review 13.9.21 Recent economic indicators have been generally positive: Credit card purchases in August expanded by 4%-5% (according to our seasonal adjusted estimate from weekly BoI data). Sectors which witnessed a sharp increase in demand include hospitality and leisure, as well as...

The first hike is likely in Q322, if the Fed shifts bias as well
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Aug 2021

1. Recent economic data point to fairly robust growth at the start of Q322, as travel restrictions abroad support domestic consumption. 2. We cannot rule out a rate hike in Israel in Q322, assuming a rapid recovery and a tightening bias from the Fed. 3. Similarly, the surprising rate hi...

Rates remain unchanged as well as forward guidance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Aug 2021

Rates remained unchanged today at 0.1% with the monetary statements noting both the uptick in infections (but hopeful that the booster shot will slow this trend) as well as the strong economic recovery. The output gap is at 3% in Q221, compared to the previous assessment of 4.5%. There is a hirin...

GDP growth likely to reach nearly 7% this year
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Aug 2021

* Robust GDP numbers in the 2nd quarter and an upward revision to the 1st quarter reflect a strong economic recovery, less supportive of monetary accommodation. * Job vacancies continue to move higher despite strong employment growth. * Consumer confidence has weakened on concerns regard...

GDP growth likely to reach nearly 7% this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Aug 2021

Highlights of weekly macro review:GDP growth surprises on the upside GDP growth reached 15.4% saar in Q2 (on strong PC growth) and Q1 growth was revised sharply upwards. GDP growth is 3.2% above pre-Covid level (in real terms). Assuming modest growth in 2H21, annual growth likely to reach 7%. Thi...

Job vacancies spike, consumer confidence weakens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Aug 2021

The number of job vacancies continues to rise, reaching 134k (sa) in July, from 129k in June and 122k in May. The pre-Covid level was around 96k. This is an indicator of excess demand for labor from the private sector, relative to the supply. This upward print in July is somewhat surprising in li...

July’s CPI surprises slightly on the upside
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Aug 2021

* July’s CPI surprised slightly on the upside, and core increased to 1.7% y/y from 1.2%. * We expect inflation of 1.1% as shekel appreciation continues to moderate inflation while housing rental prices accelerate. * Israeli institutions were net FX sellers of 3.9bn USD in June and 16bn...

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

Robust GDP growth as well as declining unemployment GDP growth in Q2 reached 15.4% saar (1st estimate), above consensus and our expectations. GDP growth in Q1 was revised upwards to -1.4% from -5.8%. In Q2, Private consumption growth reached 36.3% (due to the opening up of the economy), investmen...

July’s CPI surprises slightly on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2021

July’s CPI increased by 0.4% m/m above expectations for 0.3% Headline inflation increased to 1.9% y/y (from 1.7%), core inflation reached 1.7% (up from 1.2%). Housing rental prices accelerated slightly, reaching 1.2% y/y (up from 1.0% last month). Housing purchase prices (a separate survey) incre...

Israeli institutions continue to sell FX
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Aug 2021

Israeli institutions continue to sell FX In June, Israeli savings institutions (managing over 450bn USD) were net sellers of FX of 3.9bn USD and 16bn YTD. In June, institutions sold assets abroad of 1.1bn and increased their FX hedge position by 2.8bn. Higher equity market valuations abroad have ...

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