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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The BoI expects growth of 6.3% this year, assuming rapid vaccination
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Jan 2021

The BoI central forecast sees a rapid recovery following inoculation, with growth reaching 6.3% this year and 5.8% in 2022. Under this scenario, the Governor expects a reassessment of QE in the summer months. The fiscal deficit reached 11.5% in 2020, below initial expectations, on the back of str...

The BoI expects growth of 6.3% this year, assuming rapid vaccination
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jan 2021

HighlightsThe fiscal deficit reached 11.5% GDP in 2020, below expectations.A few months ago, the expectations were for 13%-14% GDP.We have been consistently more optimistic, stressing two drivers: the high-tech service sector and the upside from lack of travel abroad on private consumption. Tax r...

Rates remain stable today, with a more upbeat undertone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jan 2021

Governor Yaron sounds more optimistic Policy rates remained stable at 0.1% today, as expected. In the press conference, BoI Governor Yaron sounded cautiously optimistic, stating that he sees a greater probability of the optimistic growth scenario of the BoI Research Dept (6.3% in 2021 and 5.8% in...

Rapid vaccination will facilitate economic recovery
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Jan 2021

Rapid vaccination of the population will facilitate economic recovery. Our 2021 GDP growth forecast stands at 3.9% but at 9% y/y in Q421. We do not expect any adjustments to monetary policy today.

Rapid vaccination will facilitate economic recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Jan 2021

Israel has proceeded rapidly with vaccination with over 12% of the population already vaccinated, and half of those 60 or above. Although in the short run, higher infections are likely to lead to more limitations on activity, we expect a rapid recovery commencing in Q221. Our 2021 GDP growth fore...

Despite rapid and massive vaccinations, severe limitations on activity imposed
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Dec 2020

Weekly macro highlightsCorona: yesterday evening Israel entered its third closure, closing all stores except for food/pharma and allowing only deliveries from restaurants. Mobility will be limited to 1km from home. This closure is expected to continue for three weeks at least, until the number of...

​Israel goes to the polls for the fourth time in two years​
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Dec 2020

Israel goes to the polls for the fourth time in two yearsThe Israeli Parliament will disperse, and elections are expected on March 23rd. This is the fourth time in two years, a sign of political instability. Nevertheless, we do not think this is necessarily a negative development this time around...

Inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Dec 2020

Inflation is expected to reach 0.4% in the NTM on higher commodity and housing prices, while the shekel continues to appreciate. The current account surplus improved sharply in Q320 on strong export growth. Residential starts and completions remain below demand, supportive of higher prices in 202...

Inflation remains low, rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Dec 2020

Highlights of weekly macro review:November’s CPI (-0.2% m/m) was in line with expectations Headline inflation (-0.6% y/y) and core inflation (-0.2% y/y) reflect a low inflationary environment, mostly due to a steady shekel appreciation.Rental (equivalent) prices moderated to 1.1% y/y from 1.7% la...

November’s CPI in line with expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Inflation in November declined by 0.2% m/m and declined by 0.6% y/y (from -0.8% y/y in October). This was in line with market expectations (and mine). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) moved higher to -0.2% y/y from -0.4% last month, but remains in negative territory. We...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Macro fundamentals continue to support a shekel appreciation; we expect an increase in the CA surplus in Q320. In September-November, both industrial exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in these sectors. Economic indicators point to softer consumption in December, follo...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Dec 2020

Highlights of weekly macro report:Economic indicators remain generally positive, exports accelerate In Sept-Nov, both exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in both industrial activity and private consumption, especially after the partial opening of the closure. Credit car...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Dec 2020

* The fiscal deficit reached 11.1% GDP in the LTM; we expect a deficit of 11.8% this year. * Private consumption indicators point to a strong rebound in November, and consumer confidence has improved modestly as well. * Total disposable income (including government support) of workers ac...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Dec 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery Credit card purchases increased by 20% in November due to the partial opening up of the second closure. The data is not seasonally adjusted, we estimate this reflects a 10% growth (sa). Expansion of private consumption will s...

BoI: no surprises here
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

As expected, policy rates remained unchanged today at 0.1%. In the monetary statement, the MPC stressed the uncertainty of future growth, and when Israel will receive the vaccine. Recovery in the labor market will be prolonged. The second closure was less severe than the first, but opening up has...

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