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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Macro fundamentals continue to support a shekel appreciation; we expect an increase in the CA surplus in Q320. In September-November, both industrial exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in these sectors. Economic indicators point to softer consumption in December, follo...

Despite BoI intervention, pressure for appreciation continues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Dec 2020

Highlights of weekly macro report:Economic indicators remain generally positive, exports accelerate In Sept-Nov, both exports and imports expanded rapidly, reflecting strong growth in both industrial activity and private consumption, especially after the partial opening of the closure. Credit car...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · Report · 07 Dec 2020

* The fiscal deficit reached 11.1% GDP in the LTM; we expect a deficit of 11.8% this year. * Private consumption indicators point to a strong rebound in November, and consumer confidence has improved modestly as well. * Total disposable income (including government support) of workers ac...

Private consumption rebounds in November
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Dec 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery Credit card purchases increased by 20% in November due to the partial opening up of the second closure. The data is not seasonally adjusted, we estimate this reflects a 10% growth (sa). Expansion of private consumption will s...

BoI: no surprises here
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Nov 2020

As expected, policy rates remained unchanged today at 0.1%. In the monetary statement, the MPC stressed the uncertainty of future growth, and when Israel will receive the vaccine. Recovery in the labor market will be prolonged. The second closure was less severe than the first, but opening up has...

No further accommodation expected today
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Nov 2020

Recent economic indicators point to a fairly strong recovery in private consumption in November as the economy has opened up gradually. The fiscal deficit is likely to reach 11.0%-11.5% GDP this year, below the official estimate. We do not expect any additional monetary accommodation today from t...

No additional accommodation expected today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Nov 2020

Highlights:Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery Hi-tech service exports increased by 1.7% m/m in September and by 20.8% y/y, an important economic driver of the economy. Credit card purchases increased by 8.6% last week and by 15% in November, due to the opening up of store...

We expect modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year
ISRAEL · Report · 23 Nov 2020

We expect a modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year and growth of 4.8% next year. Economic indicators point to further recovery, especially in manufacturing. We expect government tradeable bond issuance in 2021 to reach around 10bn ILS per month, below that of recent months.

We expect modest GDP contraction of 3.5% this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Nov 2020

Highlights: Q320 GDP growth reached 37.9% saar The level of GDP in Q320 is down only 1.4% y/y. Growth was supported by strong export growth, both industrial and hi-tech services. We expect GDP growth to decline by 3.5% this year and expand by 4.8% next year. Economic indicators continue to point ...

Growth in Q320 surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

Q320 GDP increased by 37.9% Saar, above expectations (around 24% according to Bloomberg). We had expected 30%. Private consumption increased by 42%, exports by 63.9% and investment by 7.3%. The level of GDP is down only 1.5% y/y in Q3 (compared to -2.9% for the US and -4.3% for the EU). The Israe...

The inflationary environment remains subdued
ISRAEL · Report · 16 Nov 2020

Inflation remains fairly subdued, with core inflation down 0.4% Y/Y in October. We expect a modest acceleration in inflation going forward, as domestic demand recovers and commodity prices move higher. S&P reaffirmed Israel’s rating on strong fundamentals; we think the 2021 budget approval will b...

The inflationary environment remains subdued
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2020

October’s CPI surprised slightly on the downside reaching 0.3% m/m (we had expected 0.4%, while consensus was in the 0.3%-0.4% range) - details below.. Core inflation remained stable at -0.4% y/y, similar to September. Housing rental prices remain sticky, up 1.7% y/y following 1.6% in Sept. We ex...

The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 12% of GDP this year
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Nov 2020

The fiscal deficit in October reached 10.1% of GDP (LTM) and is expected to increase to 12% by end-year; pressure for higher yields will continue. Economic indicators point to a gradual recovery as the second lockdown is being lifted slowly. Domestic consumption is being supported by the limited ...

The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 12% GDP this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Nov 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery The weekly credit card purchases have increased by 20% in the past three weeks (through 3.11) as the economy has opened up, but this data is unfortunately not seasonally adjusted. Data from the CBS (sa) reveal that credit car...

The BoI sounds rather optimistic; no further accommodation likely
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Nov 2020

Recent economic indicators point to some improvement in activity since the partial opening of the second closure. Labor productivity in industry has improved sharply, which supports future growth potential. In Q320, non-residents and local institutions sold FX, while the BoI continues significant...

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