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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

July’s CPI came in slightly above expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2020

July’s CPI reached 0.2% m/m (-0.6% y/y, following -1.1% in June), slightly above expectations of 0.1% m/m. There were no real inflation surprises in July. Petrol prices increased by 4.3%. Domestic vacation costs increased seasonally by 5.8%, while apparel prices declined by 5.9%. Housing rental (...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 10% GDP, below expectations
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Aug 2020

Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by August 25th (the deadline for the 2020 budget approval), wil...

Fiscal deficit likely to reach 10% GDP, below expectations
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Aug 2020

Highlights of the Weekly Israeli Macro Wrap Up 10.8.20: Uncertainty is high regarding budget approval: whether to approve the 2020 and 2021 budget separately (as Netanyahu wants) or jointly in one framework (as stipulated by the coalition agreement. This disagreement, if it is not settled by Augu...

Fiscal deficit reaches 7.2% GDP LTM
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2020

July’s fiscal deficit reached 12bn ILS compared to a deficit of 2bn in July 19. The fiscal deficit in the last 12 months reached 7.2% of GDP compared with 6.4% last month. Expenditures (excluding additional outlays for the Covid crisis) actually declined in January-July by 0.4% y/y, as the result...

GDP contraction in Q2 likely to be moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Aug 2020

Recent economic indicators (such as credit card purchases) point to fairly steady economic activity in July. Unemployment drifted slightly higher in the first two weeks of July, to 12.3% (less than expectations). GDP contraction in Q220 is likely to be more modest than other DMs, due to strong hi...

GDP contraction in Q2 likely to be moderate (relative to US and EU)
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Aug 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up: Recent economic data point to steady economic activity in July: Credit card purchases increased by 4.9% in July (through 28.7). The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past 2 weeks. Production of electricity (adjusted), is up back to la...

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite restrictions
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Initial economic indicators for July point to some stability in domestic demand. Unemployment reached 11.8% in the last two weeks of June, but most likely drifted somewhat higher in July given the increasing restrictions. Macro fundamentals and flows have supported a stronger shekel, despite aggr...

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite increasing restriction
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 27.7.20:Recent data suggests that domestic demand has stabilized recently:Credit card purchases increased by 3.5% in July (through 21.7).The Google Mobility Index points to some stability in the past week.Unemployment declined to 11.8% in the last two wee...

Initial signs of growth deceleration
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Jul 2020

There are increasing indicators pointing to weakening activity due to increasing restrictions on the economy; this trend is expected to continue in the short run. June’s CPI (-0.1% m/m and -1.1% y/y) came in according to expectations; core inflation (-0.5% y/y) remains well below target. Today th...

Initial signs of growth deceleration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Jul 2020

Highlights of Weekly Israel Macro Wrap Up 20.7.20: Recent data suggests that growth has taken a downturn in July: Credit card purchases declined by 5% in the first two weeks of July. The Google Mobility Index points to declining activity in shopping/leisure as well as going to work. The Poalim PM...

​Inflation remains low in June
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jul 2020

The CPI in June came in at -0.1% (-1.1% y/y from -1.6% in May) similar to our forecast and similar to the Bloomberg consensus, although local forecasters were expecting an index of zero m/m. June’s CPI was impacted by a 8.6% increase in petrol prices (contributing 0.25% to the CPI), which was off...

Additional fiscal stimulus is positive, if implemented rapidly
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Jul 2020

The MoF launched a new fiscal aid program aimed mostly at small businesses, which will increase the fiscal deficit by 0.7% of GDP. Consumer confidence declined sharply in June due to renewed restrictions. The BoI announced a corporate bond purchasing plan of 15bn ILS. We expect June’s CPI to decl...

Additional fiscal stimulus is positive, if implemented rapidly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Jul 2020 · 1 response

Highlights of the Weekly Israel Macro Wrap up:Recent data suggests that economy recovery has stalled: Credit card purchases in the first week of July actually declined by 1.6% compared to the previous week, and are down 9.5% YTD. The Google Mobility Index points to stability in leisure/retail, 17...

​The BoI will purchase corporate bonds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jul 2020 · 1 response

The MPC decided to maintain present policy rates on hold at 0.1%, but announced a plan to purchase 15bn ILS of Israeli corporate bonds rated A- or higher in the secondary market. In addition, the Bank of Israel will renew its three-year loans to the banks at 0.1%. The monetary announcement reflec...

Rate stability with a more dovish forward guidance likely today
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jul 2020

We expect a rate hold decision today but with a more dovish forward guidance, including low rates for a considerable period of time and bond purchases into 2021. Recent indicators point to some growth in activity but at a slow pace, with the recent spike in infections expected to slow recovery. T...

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