Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ELECTIONS OUTLOOK...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Fiscal deficit will expand into 2024
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jan 2024

Fiscal deficit reaches 4.2% GDP The fiscal deficit in 2023 reached 4.2% GDP as expenditures increased by 14.2% y/y and revenues declined by 6.4%. The fiscal deficit in December reached 33.8bn ILS (compared to 18.5bn last year) with 17.2bn additional spending due to the war. The deficit of 77bn IL...

Could inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jan 2024

1. Policy rates were cut to 4.5% due to moderating inflation and a strong shekel; fiscal concerns were secondary. 2. We revised our inflation forecast up to 2.8% in 2024. 3. Higher shipping costs, pent-up demand, and a rebound in housing rentals are likely to push inflation higher.

Will inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

Rate cut on decelerating inflation Policy rate declined by 0.25% to 4.5% last Monday with the Bank of Israel noting that inflation has moderated significantly in recent months, the shekel has appreciated and other central banks are expected to loosen. The Governor noted that inflation y/y is expe...

Rates reduced as inflation moderates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jan 2024

Rates reduced as inflation moderates The BOI cut rates by 0.25% to 4.5% due to the inflation deceleration (which is expected to continue into Q124) as well as lower inflation expectations. This trend (supported by shekel appreciation) effectively raises real rates and allows for lower rates, desp...

Will the BoI reduce rates on Monday? Probably not
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Dec 2023

Will the BoI reduce rates on Monday? Probably not The next rate decision on January 1st could really go either way (rate cut or hold), although we are leaning towards a rate hold decision. The factors supporting easing include the sharp decline in inflation in November (headline: 3.3% y/y, core: ...

November’s low CPI, surprising on the downside, supports monetary easing
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Dec 2023

1. November’s CPI came in below expectations as core inflation moderated significantly. 2. This renews expectations for a rate cut in January (in two weeks), assuming low shekel volatility. 3. The CA surplus and net FDI are expected to reach 5.5% GDP this year, but geopolitical/political u...

November’s low CPI supports monetary loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

Inflation surprises on the downside Headline inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% last month. Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month due to a sharp moderation in housing rental (OER) prices to 3.6% y/y from 4.9%. The breakou...

Rate cut in January appears realistic
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

Inflation in November surprises on the downside The CPI in November declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% y/y, Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month. The downside surprises came from the “travel abroad” item which decline by 5.7% (we ...

November's CPI expected to reach -0.1% and 3.5% y/y
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Dec 2023

Contrary to our initial expectations, the CBS decided to measure the “travel abroad” item in November (flights, hotels, etc) despite the 80% decline in Israelis traveling abroad. This means that the sharp shekel appreciation (4.3% against the dollar) will push the November CPI print down sharply....

The BoI signals that fiscal policy is an increasing concern
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Dec 2023

1. The fiscal deficit widened to 3.4% GDP LTM; maintaining credibility in 2024 (and beyond) will be key for markets as well as for the MPC. 2. Business sentiment improved modestly in November but still reflects contraction going forward, while consumer confidence has rebounded. 3. Israeli ...

The BoI signals that fiscal policy is an increasing concern
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Dec 2023

Geopolitics: Israel is continuing its ground offensive into the more southern part of Gaza, while missiles into Israel continue but have declined sharply. Sporadic low-level hostilities continue in the North. Domestically, most limitations on activity in Israel have been lifted, except for sports...

The business sector remains pessimistic, but slightly less
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

The CBS Business Survey for November continues to point to contraction in activity with a net balance of -1.5 (-1.9 in Oct) for the present activity component (compared to +23 in Sept). The expectations for next month are still net negative (-11.75) but less than in Oct (-23), similar to the empl...

Sharp decline in travel abroad + consumer confidence rebounds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Dec 2023

Sharp decline in travel abroad In November, 167,000 Israelis went abroad, a decrease of 77% compared to November last year. Due to such a sharp decline in the number of passengers and in the number of flights, it is reasonable to assume that the Central Bureau of Statistics will decide not to mea...

A dent in fiscal credibility could postpone easing
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Dec 2023

1. The coalition is finding it difficult to reduce civilian expenditure (coalition agreements, especially), as it approved additional spending for the war. 2. A dent in fiscal credibility in 2024 could result in a weaker shekel and postpone monetary easing. 3. Private consumption declined s...

A dent in fiscal credibility could postpone loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Dec 2023

Geopolitics: Following the return 116 hostages, negotiations broke down in receiving the remaining 136 hostages. Israel renewed its offensive and Hamas fired missiles into Israel. Hezbollah fired as well and Israel retaliated. It is not clear whether this renewed pressure will result in the resum...

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.