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Rates on hold with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Nov 2023

Rates on hold with a loosening bias Policy rates remained unchanged today at a level of 4.75%. Inflation has moderated but remains slightly above target, and the economy is recovering in some components of activity. During the press conference, Governor Yaron stressed that monetary loosening will...

Rate stability expected today, with an easing bias
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Nov 2023

1. A rate-hold decision today is likely, with a strong easing bias. This could entail an unscheduled revised macro forecast for 2024, including a lower policy rate forecast. 2. “Broad” unemployment spiked to 10.4% in October; one quarter of all those usually employed were absent from work for ...

Rate stability expected today (Monday) with a loosening bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s operation in Gaza has been put on hold for several days in exchange for the return of hostages. The ceasefire is expected to be temporary although the hostage release priority could delay the renewal of the military operation for longer than initially expected. Low level hos...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Nov 2023

1. The shekel continued to appreciate sharply last week, fueling expectations for a possible rate cut next week. 2. Inflation moderated in October, especially housing rental prices and services, a trend that is likely to continue. 3. Real-time data point to an increase in private consumptio...

The shekel continues to appreciate sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, but at a much slower pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network. Sporadic low-level fighting wit...

Inflation in October points to deceleration
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2023

Inflation in October points to deceleration Inflation in October (0.5% m/m, 3.7% y/y following 3.8% in September) came in as expected. The underlying trends point to deceleration with housing rental prices (OER) decelerating to 4.9% y/y from 5.5%, while the main housing item moderated to 4.8% y/y...

Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Nov 2023

1. The October Business Sentiment Survey reflects an expected sharp decline in economic activity. 2. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 4% GDP in 2023 and 6% GDP in 2024 as a result of the conflict. 3. We expect a CPI print of 0.5% m/m in October, impacted by seasonality and higher fre...

Business sentiment falls sharply as hostilities persist
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Gaza, although at a decreasing pace. The Israeli army is consolidating its control on northern Gaza and is proceeded slowly to deal with the massive tunnel network especially in Gaza city (inc...

Both business expectations and consumer confidence decline sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Nov 2023

October’s Business Sentiment Survey points to a sharp deterioration in expectations for growth next month (November), with this component declining to -23 points from +0.4 in September. The employment expectation component also turned net negative to -14.65 from 1.16. The construction sector is e...

The fiscal deficit expands rapidly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Nov 2023

The fiscal deficit expanded rapidly to 2.6% GDP in the last 12 months through October from 1.5% one month ago. The actual deficit in October reached 22.9bn ILS compare to 3.1bn in Oct 22. Expenditure of ministries expanded by 12.3% y/y, mostly due to higher defense spending. Tax revenues declined...

A widening fiscal deficit amid the conflict will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Nov 2023

1. The shekel appreciated sharply last week as a result of both strong equity markets abroad and growing expectations that the war will be limited to Gaza. 2. Credit card purchases continue to expand modestly, but private consumption remains far below pre-war levels. 3. We expect a fiscal d...

A widening fiscal deficit will require additional (but manageable) bond issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Nov 2023

Geopolitics: Israel’s ground operation into Gaza continues, as do sporadic missile fire into Israel from Hamas. There is much fog regarding the war, Israel has encircled Gaza city, a major Hamas stronghold including underground tunnels. International pressure for a cease-fire is mounting as civil...

Monetary loosening likely to be postponed until hostilities subside
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Oct 2023

1. Governor Yaron has strongly emphasized that monetary loosening will be postponed until after shekel stabilization. 2. The shekel could stabilize in the short run (or even appreciate), assuming more certainty regarding a limited scope of the conflict. 3. Recent data underline Israel’s pos...

Trade deficit declines sharply
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

September witnessed a sharp reduction in the headline trade deficit to 1.5bn from 3.2bn in both August 23 and September 2022. Industrial exports are up 8% m/m in October, while imports declined: consumer imports by 3.5% (sa), imports of raw materials by 1.4%, and imports of investment goods by 6....

Rates on hold, with a fairly hawkish tone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

As expected, rates remained on hold today at a level of 4.75%. In the press conference the Governor stressed that as long as Israel's risk premium remains elevated and shekel depreciation pressures continue, monetary loosening is off the table, despite decelerating domestic demand. The Governor a...

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