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Essential CIS Politics: May 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 May 2025

- Progress on Ukraine War peace deal stalls despite numerous meetings and proposals by all sides. - Russia launches minor offensive; gains very limited. - North Korean military presence in Russia praised by Putin and Gerasimov. - Geopolitical shift—Central Asian countries f...

Essential CIS Politics: April 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2025

- Trump threatens with 25-50 per cent oil tariffs on Moscow if a ceasefire agreement is not reached. - Moscow shows signs of rapprochement to new HTS authorities in Damascus. - Trump wants right of first offer regarding projects to develop Ukraine’s resources. - Russia forc...

A postmortem for Ukraine’s Kursk offensive as Russia rejects ceasefire terms
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Mar 2025

- Russia launches successful offensive in Kursk sector, ejecting Ukrainian troops from most of the territory. - Russia could continue advancing into Ukraine’s territory across the Kursk border if no ceasefire is agreed, as Ukraine evacuates villages in the Sumy Region. - Ukraine ...

Essential CIS Politics: March 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2025

- America and Russia negotiate: Ukraine and the EU not invited. - America and Europe bid for rights to Ukrainian minerals. - America and Russia compete for multi-billion dollar Indian fighter jet contract. - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sign historic final border deal.

Analyzing Bulgarian President Radev’s statements on the Russo-Ukrainian war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2025

• President Rumen Radev wants the EU to be actively involved in negotiations. • Radev heavily criticizes the prosecution of the war, sanctions and lack of political achievements. • Radev open to restoring Russian gas flows to Europe after a peace deal. CONTEXT On February 5, we attended the Econo...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2025

- Russia signs strategic partnership with Iran, as rumors of an Opec-style gas cartel become more realistic. - Trump scales up threats of sanctions and tariffs if peace negotiations do not progress. - Armenia begins the EU accession process. - Lukashenko wins a 7th term in ...

Trump’s opening remarks indicate carrot-and-stick approach towards Russia-Ukraine negotiations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2025

• Trump threatens Russia and “participating countries” with more sanctions, tariffs and taxes if no peace deal is reached soon. • Russia’s oil revenues will be targeted by Trump—Western sanctions against the shadow fleet are increasing costs, stalling China and India’s purchases of Russian oil...

Ukraine strikes Turkstream, pushing gas prices up 7%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

Ukraine strikes gas pumping station in Russia that supplies gas to Europe via Turkey.Energy prices jump up to 7% amidst fears of a disruption of supply.Ukraine had previously cut off Europe from Russia by preventing gas transit through its territory earlier this month.Russia accuses the USA of be...

Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions flare again as Aliyev claims to be preparing a “Special Military Operation”
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jan 2025

- Baku threatens to launch a “Special Military Operation” against “fascist” Armenia. - A video of former President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan talking about ethnic cleansing during the First Nagorno Karabakh War triggered outrage in Azerbaijan. - Armenia’s leaning towards the West provokes a...

Essential CIS Politics: January 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Dec 2024

- Moscow and Kyiv exchange prisoners ahead of the new year as rumors of negotiations of a ceasefire spread. - Russia is suspected of sabotaging the Finnish-Estonian energy interconnection. - Protests continue in Georgia amidst the inauguration of a new president and the refusal of former Pre...

Protests rock Georgia amid institutional crisis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024

- Georgians continue protesting two weeks since the PM announced the suspension of EU accession negotiations until 2028. - The new president was elected under the new system, unrecognized by the previous president and the political opposition. - As the crisis continues and the EU cuts ties, ...

Russian-supported Syrian government collapses—an analysis
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2024

- Jihadi HTS broke its ceasefire, leading to the fall of the Assad regime in less than two weeks. - Russia’s Mediterranean naval base in Tartus, the air bridge for Africa Corps and Russia's international credibility are all at stake. - Russia is not antagonizing Erdogan despite blatant Turki...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024

- Trump’s possible future effects on the CIS examined - Russia updates nuclear doctrine in response to Western weapons targeting its territory - Government rides out protests in Georgia - COP 29 in Azerbaijan provokes new diplomatic row with France

Maia Sandu wins on 2nd round of the Presidential election in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2024

- Sandu wins 2nd round thanks to votes from abroad - Stoianoglo won in most districts inside Moldova - The country remains highly divided as it reinforces its pro-EU path On November 3, 2024, Moldova re-elected President Maia Sandu with 55% of the vote in the second round of the controversial pre...

Bulgaria holds 7th election in three years as the Russia question divides the electorate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2024

Bulgaria’s 7th election in the last three years has not yielded drastically different results from the last election in June, and a hung parliament is still likely, with some parties holding pro-Russian views. Bulgarian companies have been sanctioned for supporting Russia’s military, as Bulgaria'...

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