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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Capital flows and Hong Kong’s future
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Jun 2020

Hong Kong’s role as a financial center is likely to be diminished due to the incursion of mainland security forces into the city and the introduction of a new national security law. Any efforts to halt the demonstrations involving these forces would likely increase the uncertainty regarding the p...

China virus check – week ending June 1
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry but rising for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion is flat. 3) Expressway traffic is variable, but with no trend. 4) Underground metro rail traffic is weak, apart fro...

China virus check – week ending May 25
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry. 2) Traffic congestion is becoming more even. 3) Expressway traffic is rising at a slow pace. 4) Underground metro rail traffic rising slowly. 5) Little change in freight l...

Moral hazard and the mysterious “keepwell” agreements
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 May 2020

The two dominant themes of Chinese economic policy over the past several years have been the growing use of private capital for state ends, and more recently, a reluctance to engage in a large-scale “Chinese QE.” Concerns about excess state debt have been imprinted on Xi Jinping by economic head ...

China virus check - week ending May 19
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: * Slowing growth in coal consumption in the power industry. * Traffic congestion is becoming more even. * Expressway traffic patterns have been quite variable, probably reflecting post-holiday movement. * Underground metro rail tr...

China virus check – week ending May 12
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) A strong upturn in coal use in the power industry. 2) Strong traffic congestion but expressway traffic down due to comparisons with the week-earlier holiday. 3) Underground metro rail traffic moving up relatively stea...

China’s “bridges to nowhere”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 May 2020

The success of China’s emergence from the virus/trade war recession will depend on the size, type and success of any stimulus measures. Whatever stimulus package gradually emerges will follow several years of government restriction on credit flows following the “hangover” from the 2009 fiscal sti...

China virus check - week ending May 3
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 May 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Steady decline in coal use in the power industry. 2) Traffic congestion dipping but expressway traffic showing gains. 3) Underground metro rail traffic relatively unchanged. 4) Steady increase in most aspects of Baidu searches. 5)...

China’s “special” stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 May 2020

China relies less on monetary stimulus through the banks and more on fiscal expansion through targeted investments. Even when it supplies credit to the banks through a monetary expansion, as it is doing currently through various programs, these come with fiscal restrictions – orders from the regu...

China virus check – week ending April 27
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) A slight decline in coal use in the power industry and a slight decrease in iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion is up significantly but expressway traffic dipped. 3) A big jump in underground metro...

China Q1 revenue
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

The Chinese Ministry of Finance Tuesday afternoon issued its budget and revenue report for Q1 2020. The headline numbers showed a year-on-year decline of 14.3%. But items jumped out that are worth flagging, some of which are difficult to understand.

China virus check – week ending April 21
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and a slight increase iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight rise in the growth of traffic congestion. 3) Expressway traffic up 10%. 4) Metro rail traffic is down slightly. 5) Sh...

Gansu Bank bailout – the beginning of a trend?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Apr 2020

The PBOC is reportedly going to conduct a state takeover of the provincial Gansu Bank. The plan involves a massive capital injection through the sale of new equity to existing shareholders, including the provincial government, according to reporting by Caixin Magazine. We attempt to resolve two q...

China virus check – week ending April 11
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) A slight decline in the growth rate for traffic congestion. 3) Metro rail traffic is rising but one city – Guangzhou – is outpacing others we tra...

The “real” China stimulus plan
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2020

In a key meeting of the Politburo on March 28, China proposed a series of stimulus measures. However, these measures will account for about half the size of the 2009 stimulus as a percentage of GDP. In addition, some, such as SME loans, will be slowed due to bureaucratic delays. We believe a seco...

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