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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China virus check – week ending April 4
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Apr 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion grows – a good sign for the return of economic activity. 3) Metro rail traffic is rising in all four cities we track. 4) Expre...

GlobalSource Partners' Analyst Webinar Series: China - On the road to recovery? featuring Andrew Collier
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Apr 2020

​Live from Hong Kong, Andrew Collier discusses the latest signals from China regarding its recovery from the coronavirus, as well as the prospects for the fiscal and economic measures the country is taking to spur growth.

China virus check – week ending March 28
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Mar 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Rising coal use in the power industry and iron ore blast furnace operating rates. 2) Traffic congestion continues its perplexing decline for the second week. 3) Metro rail traffic is growing, but one city we track, Nanjing, showed de...

China seed store check – March 27
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2020

Here’s an update on a local check of villages that are blocking, partially closing, or keeping open access to their towns for seed shipments. This is an indication of how much economic activity is returning to normal, and whether there will be a delay in spring planting.

Could China’s banks handle a large stimulus package?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 27 Mar 2020

The current debate is about how China can engineer a V-shaped recovery when (and if) the virus abates. What shape will a stimulus take and what will the impact be on China’s long-term economic trajectory? I have argued that the state has been disciplined about avoiding a large-scale stimulus meas...

China virus check – week of March 23
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Mar 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: Modest improvement in coal use in the power industry. Very mixed signals from traffic congestion, with some areas showing rapid growth in congestion and others declining sharply. Metro rail traffic is growing but is also mixed...

Village roadblocks in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Mar 2020

We conducted a telephone survey about access to seed and other goods through local transport by calling a number of Chinese villages. The data shows modest attempts by local villages to prevent entry, which could affect the agriculture sector. The data set is small but does suggest that there wil...

China virus check – week of March 16
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Mar 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows: 1) Modest improvement in coal use in the power industry. 2) The growth in traffic congestion is slowing week over week. 3) The decline in expressway traffic is slowing. 4) People using the search term “job recruitment” is rising, b...

China virus check
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Mar 2020

We have assembled basic high frequency data on economic activity in China post-virus. The categories are: 1) Transportation. 2) Industrial data. 3) Employment (key word search). The industrial operating statistics show improvement for the most recent period up to the end of February. The pi...

Pushing on a string in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 06 Mar 2020

Will China flood the economy with capital to engineer a rapid rebound from the virus? This seems to be the assumption among investors on and offshore about the Chinese markets. I remain skeptical that a big stimulus will be effective due to the increasing inefficiency of stimulus measures in the ...

Virus and China’s demand for capital
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Feb 2020

China is introducing a series of measures to counter the downward effects of the virus on GDP growth. These policies will increase China’s demand for capital. We examine the expected sources of capital raise, domestically and internationally, and analyze what this means for the capacity of the st...

Virus and the Chinese stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Feb 2020

I received this question: How big can any new stimulus be without debt leverage going through the roof? China so far has soft-pedaled its economic response to the economic impact of the coronavirus. We’ve seen a couple of short-term measures, including lower lending rates, short-term loans to ...

China’s local bailout funds
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Feb 2020

China is gradually improving the economy’s ability to handle defaults. Beijing is designing various mechanisms for allowing failure of both companies and securities. In a previous note, we discussed the growth of local asset management companies. Here, we look at another program – local governmen...

What does the virus response tell us about China’s economic policy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Feb 2020

The Chinese government’s response to the virus tells us a lot about how economic policy will play out over the coming decade. Local decisions, blocking information flow, have given way to a mass campaign on a national scale. However, this suggests the opposite of effective policymaking – the Stat...

Trade War deal and the income multiplier
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Jan 2020 · 1 response

Despite relatively benign recent economic data, we expect a rising negative impact on China’s economy as a result of the existing tariffs. Exports are likely to continue to decline accordingly due to existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. We anticipate continuing problems for the Chinese economy b...

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