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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Chinese capital flight 3.0 three new nethods of capital flight are testing the regulators
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Dec 2017

For the ninth straight month, in October China’s foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, reaching US$3.11trn. SDR-denominated foreign exchange reserves also bounced back to a level above $2.2trn. After witnessing China’s crackdown on capital flight in 2017, and with stable foreign exchange r...

Beijing Sees New Problems
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Nov 2017

We just conducted a week of interviews in Beijing and nearby Jinan, Capital of Shandong Province. A few thoughts on these subjects: * Inflation * Consumer Debt * Growing Receivables * New Private Banks * Rising Power of Reformer Wang Yang * The Mantra of Private Public Partnerships

China’s Financial Opening Opportunities in Bank Consolidation
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Nov 2017

China has agreed to open its banking sector to greater foreign ownership. This could signal an opportunity for foreign investors – depending, of course, on how serious Beijing is. There are many options for China entry for foreign institutions, from commercial lending, to securities transactions,...

Alibaba and Tencent’s Global Strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Nov 2017

Summary • Domestic Competition. Tight competition for payments within China is pushing Alibaba and Tencent to explore overseas expansion. • Financial Services. Both companies currently rely on Chinese tourists and business travelers. In future, the easiest entry access is via local joint ventu...

ABS and Deleveraging in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Oct 2017

• Explosion in ABS. By the end of September, there were 1,129 ABS securities with an outstanding balance of Rmb1.5trn. Encouraged by government policies, we estimate ABS will grow by double digits through 2020. • Fiscal “Band-aid.” The central government has retreated from using fiscal resources...

What Will Xi Jinping Do After the Party Congress?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Oct 2017

Most analysts believe Xi Jinping is likely to increase his power following the Party Congress on October 18 by strengthening his control over the Party’s Standing Committee. This, in turn, could give him the political freedom to institute economic reforms, including the restructuring of state fir...

China’s Mortgage Crisis Rising Interest Rates Will Hurt Consumers
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Oct 2017

China’s consumers are rapidly leveraging up. This is a policy encouraged by Beijing, which views the consumer both as “underleveraged” and also not part of China’s “official” credit system. Chinese institutions are rapidly offloading credit – both good and bad – to the consumer. This is often thr...

Bond Default Recaps: Recapitalization Patterns
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Aug 2017

As the economy slows and bad debt increases, the outcome of the current round of defaults, along with related programs like the debt-for-equity swaps, tell us a lot about what China will do and not just what it says it will do. We believe this initial pool of defaults provides a clue to how the s...

Rising Consumer Concerns about WMPs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Jun 2017

In May, we conducted a survey of buyers of Wealth Management Products (WMPS) in China and also examined related data on defaults from the courts and public sources. We believe the RMB 26 trillion WMP market is the most liquid and volatile within China’s financial system and would be prone to runs...

Bad Economic Benchmarks in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Jun 2017

A fund manager recently told me he relies on three sets of data to monitor the strength of the Chinese economy: 1. Interbank interest rates. 2. The value of the yuan. 3. The rise or decline of China’s foreign exchange holdings. However, I would disagree with the use of these three benchmarks ...

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