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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics are winning over economics
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

Bloomberg just published a story about significant new support for China’s property market. Measures announced thus far include asking banks to extend 1 trillion yuan in emergency support for the property market by end-2022, reducing interest rates, and, according to Bloomberg reporting, develope...

De-risking and Chinese equities
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Nov 2022

There is pressure, primarily from the U.S. pension and retirement funds, to “de-risk” by reducing the weight of Chinese equities in overall portfolios. The official China data for September 2022 show net portfolio outflows. Future months are likely to show negative growth as de-risking sentiment ...

The surprising end of the Party Conference
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Oct 2022 · 1 response

China’s Party Conference ended with a bang in two ways: the clear selection of Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) members in Xi Jinping’s camp, and the unprecedented removal of former Party head Hu Jintao from the Party Conference. In this report I discuss the significance of these two acts. F...

Xi Jinping’s tough choices in the chip wars
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Oct 2022

I was very interested to read opposing analyses of the impact of the new U.S. policy toward the export of semiconductor and artificial intelligence technology to China — both from former Department of Defense analysts. One was from Gregory Allen, a CSIS analyst, and former Director of Strategy an...

The future of China after the 20th Party Conference
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Oct 2022

The Party conference on October 16 is likely to solidify Xi Jinping’s power. How much power will depend on who is appointed to senior positions. It is important to watch closely whether younger potential successors are named to the standing committee and other related positions. The degree of Xi’...

The next China crisis? Local Government Financing Vehicles
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Sep 2022

The Chinese government is transferring a significant portion of the risks of the property sector from private developers to local government companies. These LGFVs (Local Government Financing Vehicles) are required by local governments to acquire land — replacing property developers — to support ...

Pandemic statistics update - September 14, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2022

Preliminary traffic and box office data suggests a slight improvement in conditions in China despite the continuing Covid lockdowns. After making strong gains for the early part of the summer, box office increases year on year dropped off in early September due to rising lockdowns. However, box ...

China's tech crackdown - an excerpt from my new book, "China's Technology War: Why Beijing Took Down Its Tech Giants"
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Aug 2022

When Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba, gave a speech on October 24, 2020 to the country’s political and financial elite, he set in motion a crackdown on China’s flourishing technology sector that will have long consequences on China’s economic growth. In my n...

Key takeaways from China’s mortgage crisis
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Aug 2022

China’s economy has done surprisingly well through the Covid period – until now. Throughout the Covid period China has sustained growth through investment and exports. In the midst of a weak global economy, exports rose 14 percent YoY in 1H 2022, and in 2021, China’s total trade was up 30 percent...

Xi Jinping’s Visit to Hong Kong
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jul 2022

Xi Jinping’s chose Hong Kong as his first trip out of the mainland in two years as a symbol of global power and an expression of support for the incoming Chief Executive. His comments, along with other recent events, provide some clues to how China intends to govern Hong Kong. We can conclude tha...

Is a war in Taiwan likely?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Jun 2022

President Biden’s public support for the defense of Taiwan, coupled with China’s increasing aggressive tactics in the South China Sea, have increased concerns about an invasion of Taiwan by the PRC. Elections in both Taiwan and the U.S. in 2024 could exacerbate existing tension. Despite the growi...

Pandemic statistics update - June 10, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue is showing quite steady gains beginning in June. This confirms news reports that suggest the lockdowns are easing, either due to local pressure or because there has been containment of Covid in places such as Shanghai. Both Shanghai and Beijing have shown sharp chang...

Pandemic statistics update - June 2, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 Jun 2022

China film box office revenue remains substantially below year-ago levels, although the variability over the past several weeks shows the confused situation of the Covid control measures. Traffic data for Shanghai and Beijing is inconsistent.

Pandemic statistics update - May 25, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 May 2022

China film box office revenue is bouncing around at low levels, down 88.3 percent YoY as of the most recent data, as lockdowns continue to impact attendance at cinemas. However, the traffic data from Shanghai and Beijing is mildly positive.

Pandemic statistics update - May 20, 2022
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 May 2022

Xi Jinping’s lockdown policies are facing increasing opposition. Videos have been posted online about protests at Peking University, where the children of the elite attend university. The open confrontation, in both Beijing and Shanghai, is surprising but the harsh measures are clearly causing si...

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