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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Covid-19 weekly update – week ending September 28, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Sep 2020

Conditions generally remain positive although, following last week, there is a very mild softening on the retail side in theater attendance, auto sales, and property sales. It may be that economic activity has plateaued at levels 10-15% lower than in 2019 and will remain there until 2021.

Evergrande and stress in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Sep 2020

China’s property market has long been the weak link in the economy. It is the bubble that supports growth – including local consumption, fixed asset investment, and local government fiscal revenue. Although property sales remain healthy, the developers themselves are increasingly under financial ...

China virus data – week ending September 21, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Sep 2020

There was a softening on the retail side, with slower auto and property sales, and a fall in metro rail activity. Film attendance trended higher for most of the week, which is positive for continued confidence in domestic safety measures. Traffic congestion was higher, as well.

China virus check – week ending September 14, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Sep 2020

A few signs of weakness emerged in the latest batch of data for early/mid September. Auto sales remain strong, but property demand began to weaken, as did film box office. It is too early to point to a sustained downturn in consumer demand although it is possible that the period of pent-up demand...

Ant Group IPO
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Sep 2020

Ant Group’s proposed IPO, expected soon, raises the profile of China’s largest private online financial company. However, there are macroeconomic and political considerations that will affect the growth trajectory of both Ant and other private online financial firms. There are also competitive th...

China virus check – week ending September 7, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Sep 2020

Good news continued this week. Sales of autos and property have continued to rise for most of the recent periods. Also, the film industry maintained its very high levels YoY due to the release of new films and a clear desire among citizens for entertainment. There seems to be a definite return to...

China virus check – week ending August 31, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 01 Sep 2020

The news of the week is marked by one surprising change: cinema box office receipts jumped substantially above 2019 levels. This occurred despite a 50 percent limit on theater attendance. The increase was most due to the launch of several new and highly popular films, including some that had been...

Thoughts on the strengthening yuan
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 Aug 2020

There has been speculation that the recent rise of the yuan will reverse course. The currency strength is encouraging inflows. Clearly, a lower valued currency would encourage exports. However, I estimate that Beijing will not depreciate the yuan, for several reasons. First, the PBOC has tend...

China virus check – week ending August 24, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 25 Aug 2020

Economic activity in China was mixed in the past week. Heavy industry remains relatively flat – but is not declining. The retail sector is mixed. Car sales were flat YoY but cinema theaters showed a slight uptick, indicating growing confidence among consumers regarding leaving the house. The cons...

China virus check – week ending August 17, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Aug 2020

Economic activity in China was mixed in the past week. Heavy industry remains relatively flat – but is not declining. The retail sector is mixed. Car sales were down YoY but cinema theaters showed a slight uptick, indicating growing confidence among consumers for leaving the house. The trends are...

Inefficient Stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2020

China has switched from SME to infrastructure-led stimulus. This will lead to greater pressure on both bank and private capital, along with a “crowding out” of investment in more profitable parts of the economy. This is also less efficient state-driven investment. However, it has been the capital...

China Virus Check – Week August 10
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Aug 2020

Our latest data for economic activity shows a continued split between heavy industry and other sectors. Steel, iron ore and property construction remains vibrant, generally higher YoY. Meanwhile, auto sales, cinema attendance and other measures are weak. This reaffirms China is undergoing a produ...

China’s inventory problem
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Aug 2020

China’s infrastructure-driven stimulus may be running into problems due to industry overbuild. Much of the demand is production led, fed by loans to the state sector, which controls much of the production of key materials such as steel. The data on inventory suggests China could face demand probl...

China virus check - week ending August 3, 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Aug 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China showed hopeful signs. There appears to be a bottoming out in many measures, such as metro passenger traffic. We added some data on cinema attendance, for which the results are poor. Obviously, many public indoor activities will take a long time to re...

China’s lopsided economic activity
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 31 Jul 2020

Very recent trade data from June and July shows a strong uptick in activity at Chinese ports. This is reflected in the bottoming-out of export data. But the specific data on exports by sector is not reflecting strong demand. Domestically, sales data shows China’s heavy reliance on infrastructu...

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