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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
QATAR: QP issues record bond to finance LNG expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Jul 2021
In its first USD issuance since 2006, QP raised $12.5bn, enough to cover about 62% of its expected share of the North Field East LNG expansion. The issuance and the 2020 accounts revealed useful information about QP’s reserves, production, strategic vision and its role in financing the government...
GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain proposes Qatar airspace talks, Oman’s nominal unemployment doubles, fistfight in Kuwait’s parliament
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Jun 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states, bar Saudi and Bahrain, congratulated Raisi for winning the Iranian election. * Iran’s monitoring agreement with the IAEA expired as nuclear talks enter their final stage of brinkmanship before a deal. * Aram...
KUWAIT: Budget passes despite opposition resistance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Jun 2021
The National Assembly today narrowly passed the 2021/2 budget, despite the abstention of most MPs. The opposition has suggested that the Assembly might not be put into recess for the summer, during which the government could pass a debt law and fiscal reforms by decree. We think the reforms, alth...
GULF WEEKLY: Strong Saudi Q1 GDP, Dubai bails out Emirates, Egypt-Qatar reconciliation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jun 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oman’s coronavirus cases and deaths hit new records, and hospitals are under strain. * Saudi non-oil Q1 GDP grew by 4.9% q/q SA, even stronger than the earlier flash indicator. * However, the tourism sector will suffer a ...
Israel’s new government may be an easier Gulf partner, despite offering little "change" to Palestinians
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jun 2021
The new coalition government formed on Sunday has a wafer-thin majority and could easily break apart. While it lasts, there is unlikely to be a material change in policy towards Palestinians, unless it is overtaken by events. However, its tone on regional issues, including Iran, is likely to be ...
GULF WEEKLY: Strong sukuk demand, Covid up in Oman & Kuwait, Kuwait sees worst GDP contraction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Jun 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus is surging in Oman and Kuwait and, although cases are falling in Bahrain, deaths are extremely high. * US-Iran talks will move to a sixth round, with growing expectations for a deal but probably not before next...
OMAN: Quick thoughts ahead of sukuk issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 07 Jun 2021
Oman is coming to market with a sukuk only four months after its unexpectedly large $3.25bn bond in January. We had expected that the sovereign would hold back until EDO had gone ahead with its inaugural issuance, of up to $5bn, which the Minister of Oil recently implied would come this month (be...
GULF WEEKLY: S&P negative on Bahrain, Aramco plans sukuk, Oman protests end, oil at a 2-year high
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Jun 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There was positivity after the 5th round of US-Iran talks, but still no deal. Iran was also positive about its talks with Saudi. * Coronavirus cases continued rising in UAE, Kuwait and Oman but eased in Bahrain and Qatar. ...
GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi issues bonds, Omanis protest, Iranian candidates culled
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 May 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases ticked up again across the Gulf, reversing a declining trend in most states. * Iran’s election has become a one-horse race, but this should facilitate a JCPOA deal soon. * Qatar pledged $500m to rebuild ...
OMAN: Unemployment protests are heated but the fiscal response is more muted
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 May 2021
Unemployment protests this week have spurred the announcement of a package of employment measures by the government. However, it only totals around 0.5% of GDP, spread over two years, and is not yet too concerning for Oman's fiscal consolidation efforts, which should be well ahead of budget this ...
GULF WEEKLY: US-Iran deal imminent, Covid surges in Bahrain, Oman’s EDO to raise $5bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 May 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * We now see the chances of a US-Iran deal by May 28 as close to 50%, and 80% by July. * Bahrain’s Covid cases continued to rise sharply despite its rapid vaccine rollout. * Vaccinated Saudis were permitted to travel, incl...
Progress towards an Iran nuclear deal hits oil
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 May 2021 · 1 response
We predict a 40% chance of a revived JCPOA nuclear deal closing next week, with an 80% chance of it happening by July, after the June 18 Iranian presidential elections. The oil market is finally beginning to wake up to the threat but hasn't yet priced it in. This presents both a fiscal and a poli...
GULF WEEKLY: Omani spending rises, solid Saudi Q1 GDP, Israel normalization tested
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 May 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The worst Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 2014 presents a challenge to Gulf-Israel normalization. * US-Iran talks entered a critical phase, just two weeks before Iranian electioneering begins. * Saudi Arabia confirmed ...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit narrows, Saudi-Turkey talks, new Qatar finance minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 May 2021
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus cases rebounded in Bahrain but eased elsewhere in the Gulf. * Erdogan spoke with King Salman, and Cavusoglu will visit Riyadh next week. * The Saudi deficit narrowed to just -1% of GDP in Q1 but will deteriora...
QATAR: Finance minister charged
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 May 2021 · 1 response
In a stunning development in the last hour, it was announced that the arrest had been ordered of Ali Shareef al-Emadi, Qatar's finance minister, by the Attorney General (QNA). It is not clear if he is in custody or the specifics of the charges being brought against him, described as involving "da...